Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater futu...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2788321 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 |
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ftnorce:oai:norceresearch.brage.unit.no:11250/2788321 2023-05-15T13:31:16+02:00 Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets Payne, Antony Nowicki, Sophie Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin L. Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Goelzer, Heiko Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Munneke, Peter Kuipers Larour, Eric Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Lipscomb, William H. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Rückamp, Martin Schlege, Nicole-Jeanne Seroussi, Hélène Shepherd, Andrew 2021 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2788321 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 eng eng urn:issn:0094-8276 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2788321 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 cristin:1928494 Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © 2021, Authors CC-BY Geophysical Research Letters 48 16 Peer reviewed Journal article 2021 ftnorce https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 2022-10-13T05:50:16Z Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet NORCE vitenarkiv (Norwegian Research Centre) Antarctic Greenland The Antarctic Geophysical Research Letters 48 16 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
NORCE vitenarkiv (Norwegian Research Centre) |
op_collection_id |
ftnorce |
language |
English |
description |
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Payne, Antony Nowicki, Sophie Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin L. Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Goelzer, Heiko Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Munneke, Peter Kuipers Larour, Eric Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Lipscomb, William H. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Rückamp, Martin Schlege, Nicole-Jeanne Seroussi, Hélène Shepherd, Andrew |
spellingShingle |
Payne, Antony Nowicki, Sophie Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin L. Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Goelzer, Heiko Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Munneke, Peter Kuipers Larour, Eric Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Lipscomb, William H. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Rückamp, Martin Schlege, Nicole-Jeanne Seroussi, Hélène Shepherd, Andrew Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets |
author_facet |
Payne, Antony Nowicki, Sophie Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin L. Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Goelzer, Heiko Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Munneke, Peter Kuipers Larour, Eric Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Lipscomb, William H. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Rückamp, Martin Schlege, Nicole-Jeanne Seroussi, Hélène Shepherd, Andrew |
author_sort |
Payne, Antony |
title |
Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets |
title_short |
Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets |
title_full |
Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets |
title_fullStr |
Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets |
title_sort |
future sea level change under cmip5 and cmip6 scenarios from the greenland and antarctic ice sheets |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2788321 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters 48 16 |
op_relation |
urn:issn:0094-8276 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2788321 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 cristin:1928494 |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © 2021, Authors |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
48 |
container_issue |
16 |
_version_ |
1766017166332657664 |