Predicting the nationwide outmigration timing of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolts along 12 degrees of latitude in Norway
Aim Accurate predictions about transition timing of salmon smolts between freshwater and marine environments are key to effective management. We aimed to use available data on Atlantic salmon smolt migration to predict the emigration timing in rivers throughout Norway. Location In this study, we use...
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ftnorce:oai:norceresearch.brage.unit.no:11250/2770711 2024-06-23T07:51:16+00:00 Predicting the nationwide outmigration timing of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolts along 12 degrees of latitude in Norway Vollset, Knut Lennox, Robert J. Lamberg, Anders Skaala, Øystein Sandvik, Anne Dagrun Sægrov, Harald Kvingedal, Eli Kristensen, Torstein Jensen, Arne Johan Haraldstad, Tormod Barlaup, Bjørn Torgeir Ugedal, Ola 2021 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2770711 https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13285 eng eng Diversity and Distributions: A journal of biological invasions and biodiversity. 2021, 27 (8), 1383-1392. urn:issn:1366-9516 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2770711 https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13285 cristin:1923312 Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © 2021, Authors Diversity and Distributions: A journal of biological invasions and biodiversity 27 8 1383-1392 Journal article Peer reviewed 2021 ftnorce https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13285 2024-05-27T03:02:36Z Aim Accurate predictions about transition timing of salmon smolts between freshwater and marine environments are key to effective management. We aimed to use available data on Atlantic salmon smolt migration to predict the emigration timing in rivers throughout Norway. Location In this study, we used outmigration timing data of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolts from 41 rivers collected from 1984 to 2018 to make a predictive model for the timing of out-migrating salmon smolts along 12 degrees latitude. Methods Smolt migration data were collated from rivers where smolts are monitored with traps, video and tagging and matched to river-specific metadata. Using a mixed-effects generalized additive model, we tested for the effects of spatial location, air temperature, river flow and counting methods on the timing of 25% smolt emigration from rivers. Results After accounting for spatial effects and repeated measures (across years and among rivers), air temperature and counting method were significant drivers of the estimated timing of smolt emigration. In-sample predictions yielded strong correlation with observed values, as did 10-fold cross-validation. Out-of-sample predictions suggested that the previous national estimates underestimated the migration timing in southern populations (linear model intercept = 39.73 days). Conclusion Model-derived estimates of run timing can be used to more accurately predict the timing of outmigration in order to better calibrate environmental flows and regulate management of marine industries such as aquaculture that may affect migration success at this particularly sensitive life stage. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Atlantic salmon Salmo salar NORCE vitenarkiv (Norwegian Research Centre) Norway Diversity and Distributions 27 8 1383 1392 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
NORCE vitenarkiv (Norwegian Research Centre) |
op_collection_id |
ftnorce |
language |
English |
description |
Aim Accurate predictions about transition timing of salmon smolts between freshwater and marine environments are key to effective management. We aimed to use available data on Atlantic salmon smolt migration to predict the emigration timing in rivers throughout Norway. Location In this study, we used outmigration timing data of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolts from 41 rivers collected from 1984 to 2018 to make a predictive model for the timing of out-migrating salmon smolts along 12 degrees latitude. Methods Smolt migration data were collated from rivers where smolts are monitored with traps, video and tagging and matched to river-specific metadata. Using a mixed-effects generalized additive model, we tested for the effects of spatial location, air temperature, river flow and counting methods on the timing of 25% smolt emigration from rivers. Results After accounting for spatial effects and repeated measures (across years and among rivers), air temperature and counting method were significant drivers of the estimated timing of smolt emigration. In-sample predictions yielded strong correlation with observed values, as did 10-fold cross-validation. Out-of-sample predictions suggested that the previous national estimates underestimated the migration timing in southern populations (linear model intercept = 39.73 days). Conclusion Model-derived estimates of run timing can be used to more accurately predict the timing of outmigration in order to better calibrate environmental flows and regulate management of marine industries such as aquaculture that may affect migration success at this particularly sensitive life stage. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Vollset, Knut Lennox, Robert J. Lamberg, Anders Skaala, Øystein Sandvik, Anne Dagrun Sægrov, Harald Kvingedal, Eli Kristensen, Torstein Jensen, Arne Johan Haraldstad, Tormod Barlaup, Bjørn Torgeir Ugedal, Ola |
spellingShingle |
Vollset, Knut Lennox, Robert J. Lamberg, Anders Skaala, Øystein Sandvik, Anne Dagrun Sægrov, Harald Kvingedal, Eli Kristensen, Torstein Jensen, Arne Johan Haraldstad, Tormod Barlaup, Bjørn Torgeir Ugedal, Ola Predicting the nationwide outmigration timing of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolts along 12 degrees of latitude in Norway |
author_facet |
Vollset, Knut Lennox, Robert J. Lamberg, Anders Skaala, Øystein Sandvik, Anne Dagrun Sægrov, Harald Kvingedal, Eli Kristensen, Torstein Jensen, Arne Johan Haraldstad, Tormod Barlaup, Bjørn Torgeir Ugedal, Ola |
author_sort |
Vollset, Knut |
title |
Predicting the nationwide outmigration timing of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolts along 12 degrees of latitude in Norway |
title_short |
Predicting the nationwide outmigration timing of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolts along 12 degrees of latitude in Norway |
title_full |
Predicting the nationwide outmigration timing of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolts along 12 degrees of latitude in Norway |
title_fullStr |
Predicting the nationwide outmigration timing of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolts along 12 degrees of latitude in Norway |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting the nationwide outmigration timing of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolts along 12 degrees of latitude in Norway |
title_sort |
predicting the nationwide outmigration timing of atlantic salmon (salmo salar) smolts along 12 degrees of latitude in norway |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2770711 https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13285 |
geographic |
Norway |
geographic_facet |
Norway |
genre |
Atlantic salmon Salmo salar |
genre_facet |
Atlantic salmon Salmo salar |
op_source |
Diversity and Distributions: A journal of biological invasions and biodiversity 27 8 1383-1392 |
op_relation |
Diversity and Distributions: A journal of biological invasions and biodiversity. 2021, 27 (8), 1383-1392. urn:issn:1366-9516 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2770711 https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13285 cristin:1923312 |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © 2021, Authors |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13285 |
container_title |
Diversity and Distributions |
container_volume |
27 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
1383 |
op_container_end_page |
1392 |
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1802642296938692608 |