Sudden emergence of a shallow aragonite saturation horizon in the Southern Ocean
Models project that with current CO2 emission rates, the Southern Ocean surface will be undersaturated with respect to aragonite by the end of this century1,2,3,4. This will result in widespread impacts on biogeochemistry and ocean ecosystems5,6,7, particularly the health of aragonitic organisms, su...
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ftnorce:oai:norceresearch.brage.unit.no:11250/2649953 2023-05-15T18:23:55+02:00 Sudden emergence of a shallow aragonite saturation horizon in the Southern Ocean Negrete-Garcia, Gabriela Lovenduski, Nicole Hauri, Claudine Krumhardt, Kristen Lauvset, Siv Kari 2019 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2649953 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0418-8 eng eng https://rdcu.be/bX52k Nature Climate Change. 2019, 9 (4), 313-317. urn:issn:1758-678X https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2649953 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0418-8 cristin:1755298 Nature Climate Change 9 4 313-317 Peer reviewed Journal article 2019 ftnorce https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0418-8 2022-10-13T05:50:18Z Models project that with current CO2 emission rates, the Southern Ocean surface will be undersaturated with respect to aragonite by the end of this century1,2,3,4. This will result in widespread impacts on biogeochemistry and ocean ecosystems5,6,7, particularly the health of aragonitic organisms, such as pteropods7, which can dominate polar surface water communities6. Here, we quantify the depth of the present-day Southern Ocean aragonite saturation horizon using hydrographic and ocean carbon chemistry observations, and use a large ensemble of simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM)8,9 to track its evolution. A new, shallow aragonite saturation horizon emerges in many Southern Ocean locations between now and the end of the century. While all ensemble members capture the emergence, internal climate variability may affect the year of emergence; thus, its detection may have been overlooked by ensemble average analysis in the past. The emergence of the new horizon is driven by the slow accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 in the Southern Ocean thermocline, where the carbonate ion concentration exhibits a local minimum and approaches undersaturation. The new horizon is also apparent under an emission-stabilizing scenario indicating an inevitable, sudden decrease in the volume of suitable habitat for aragonitic organisms. acceptedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Southern Ocean NORCE vitenarkiv (Norwegian Research Centre) Southern Ocean Nature Climate Change 9 4 313 317 |
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English |
description |
Models project that with current CO2 emission rates, the Southern Ocean surface will be undersaturated with respect to aragonite by the end of this century1,2,3,4. This will result in widespread impacts on biogeochemistry and ocean ecosystems5,6,7, particularly the health of aragonitic organisms, such as pteropods7, which can dominate polar surface water communities6. Here, we quantify the depth of the present-day Southern Ocean aragonite saturation horizon using hydrographic and ocean carbon chemistry observations, and use a large ensemble of simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM)8,9 to track its evolution. A new, shallow aragonite saturation horizon emerges in many Southern Ocean locations between now and the end of the century. While all ensemble members capture the emergence, internal climate variability may affect the year of emergence; thus, its detection may have been overlooked by ensemble average analysis in the past. The emergence of the new horizon is driven by the slow accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 in the Southern Ocean thermocline, where the carbonate ion concentration exhibits a local minimum and approaches undersaturation. The new horizon is also apparent under an emission-stabilizing scenario indicating an inevitable, sudden decrease in the volume of suitable habitat for aragonitic organisms. acceptedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Negrete-Garcia, Gabriela Lovenduski, Nicole Hauri, Claudine Krumhardt, Kristen Lauvset, Siv Kari |
spellingShingle |
Negrete-Garcia, Gabriela Lovenduski, Nicole Hauri, Claudine Krumhardt, Kristen Lauvset, Siv Kari Sudden emergence of a shallow aragonite saturation horizon in the Southern Ocean |
author_facet |
Negrete-Garcia, Gabriela Lovenduski, Nicole Hauri, Claudine Krumhardt, Kristen Lauvset, Siv Kari |
author_sort |
Negrete-Garcia, Gabriela |
title |
Sudden emergence of a shallow aragonite saturation horizon in the Southern Ocean |
title_short |
Sudden emergence of a shallow aragonite saturation horizon in the Southern Ocean |
title_full |
Sudden emergence of a shallow aragonite saturation horizon in the Southern Ocean |
title_fullStr |
Sudden emergence of a shallow aragonite saturation horizon in the Southern Ocean |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sudden emergence of a shallow aragonite saturation horizon in the Southern Ocean |
title_sort |
sudden emergence of a shallow aragonite saturation horizon in the southern ocean |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2649953 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0418-8 |
geographic |
Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean |
genre |
Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Nature Climate Change 9 4 313-317 |
op_relation |
https://rdcu.be/bX52k Nature Climate Change. 2019, 9 (4), 313-317. urn:issn:1758-678X https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2649953 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0418-8 cristin:1755298 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0418-8 |
container_title |
Nature Climate Change |
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9 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
313 |
op_container_end_page |
317 |
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