Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century
The North Atlantic Oscillation explains a large fraction of the climate variability across the North Atlantic from the eastern seaboard of North America across the whole of Europe. Many studies have linked the North Atlantic Oscillation to climate extremes in this region, especially in winter, which...
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00073651 2024-06-23T07:54:52+00:00 Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century Outten, Stephen Davy, Richard 2024-05 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00073651 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00071802/wcd-5-753-2024.pdf https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/753/2024/wcd-5-753-2024.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Weather and Climate Dynamics -- https://www.weather-climate-dynamics.net/ -- 2698-4016 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00073651 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00071802/wcd-5-753-2024.pdf https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/753/2024/wcd-5-753-2024.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2024 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024 2024-05-27T23:38:26Z The North Atlantic Oscillation explains a large fraction of the climate variability across the North Atlantic from the eastern seaboard of North America across the whole of Europe. Many studies have linked the North Atlantic Oscillation to climate extremes in this region, especially in winter, which has motivated considerable study of this pattern of variability. However, one overlooked feature of how the North Atlantic Oscillation has changed over time is the explained variance of the pattern. Here we show that there has been a considerable increase in the percentage of variability explained by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the 20th century from 32 % in 1930 to 53 % by the end of the 20th century. Whether this change is due to natural variability, a forced response to climate change, or some combination remains unclear. However, we found no evidence for a forced response from an ensemble of 50 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. These models did all show substantial internal variability in the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation, but it was biased towards being too high compared to the reanalysis and with too little variation over time. Since there is a direct connection between the North Atlantic Oscillation and climate extremes over the region, this has direct consequences for both the long-term projection and near-term prediction of changes to climate extremes in the region. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Weather and Climate Dynamics 5 2 753 762 |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Outten, Stephen Davy, Richard Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
The North Atlantic Oscillation explains a large fraction of the climate variability across the North Atlantic from the eastern seaboard of North America across the whole of Europe. Many studies have linked the North Atlantic Oscillation to climate extremes in this region, especially in winter, which has motivated considerable study of this pattern of variability. However, one overlooked feature of how the North Atlantic Oscillation has changed over time is the explained variance of the pattern. Here we show that there has been a considerable increase in the percentage of variability explained by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the 20th century from 32 % in 1930 to 53 % by the end of the 20th century. Whether this change is due to natural variability, a forced response to climate change, or some combination remains unclear. However, we found no evidence for a forced response from an ensemble of 50 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. These models did all show substantial internal variability in the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation, but it was biased towards being too high compared to the reanalysis and with too little variation over time. Since there is a direct connection between the North Atlantic Oscillation and climate extremes over the region, this has direct consequences for both the long-term projection and near-term prediction of changes to climate extremes in the region. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Outten, Stephen Davy, Richard |
author_facet |
Outten, Stephen Davy, Richard |
author_sort |
Outten, Stephen |
title |
Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century |
title_short |
Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century |
title_full |
Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century |
title_fullStr |
Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century |
title_sort |
changes in the north atlantic oscillation over the 20th century |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00073651 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00071802/wcd-5-753-2024.pdf https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/753/2024/wcd-5-753-2024.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
Weather and Climate Dynamics -- https://www.weather-climate-dynamics.net/ -- 2698-4016 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00073651 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00071802/wcd-5-753-2024.pdf https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/753/2024/wcd-5-753-2024.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024 |
container_title |
Weather and Climate Dynamics |
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5 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
753 |
op_container_end_page |
762 |
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1802647159090184192 |