Firn air content changes on Antarctic ice shelves under three future warming scenarios
The Antarctic firn layer provides pore space in which an estimated 94 % to 96 % of the surface melt refreezes or is retained as liquid water. Future depletion of firn pore space by increased surface melt, densification and formation of low-permeability ice slabs can potentially lead to meltwater pon...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Copernicus Publications
2024
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00073294 2024-06-02T07:58:34+00:00 Firn air content changes on Antarctic ice shelves under three future warming scenarios Veldhuijsen, Sanne B. M. van de Berg, Willem Jan Kuipers Munneke, Peter van den Broeke, Michiel R. 2024-04 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00073294 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00071470/tc-18-1983-2024.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/1983/2024/tc-18-1983-2024.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00073294 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00071470/tc-18-1983-2024.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/1983/2024/tc-18-1983-2024.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2024 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024 2024-05-07T02:17:27Z The Antarctic firn layer provides pore space in which an estimated 94 % to 96 % of the surface melt refreezes or is retained as liquid water. Future depletion of firn pore space by increased surface melt, densification and formation of low-permeability ice slabs can potentially lead to meltwater ponding, hydrofracturing and ice-shelf disintegration. Here, we investigate the 21st-century evolution of total firn air content (FAC) and accessible FAC (i.e. the pore space that meltwater can reach) across Antarctic ice shelves. We use the semi-empirical IMAU Firn Densification Model (IMAU-FDM) with an updated dynamical densification expression to cope with changing climate forcing. The firn model is forced by general circulation model output of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) for three climate emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), dynamically downscaled to a 27 km horizontal resolution by the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model version 2.3p2 (RACMO2.3p2). To estimate accessible FAC, we prescribe a relationship between ice-slab thickness and permeability. In our simulations, ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula and the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf in Dronning Maud Land are particularly vulnerable to total FAC depletion (> 50 % decrease by 2100), even for low-emission (SSP1-2.6) and intermediate-emission (SSP2-4.5) scenarios. In the high-emission (SSP5-8.5) scenario in particular, the formation of ice slabs further reduces accessible FAC on ice shelves with low accumulation rates (current rates of < 500 mmw.e.yr-1), including many East Antarctic ice shelves and the Filchner–Ronne, Ross, Pine Island and Larsen C ice shelves. These results underline the potentially large vulnerability of low-accumulation ice shelves to firn air depletion through ice-slab formation. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Dronning Maud Land Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Dronning Maud Land Roi Baudouin ENVELOPE(24.461,24.461,-70.438,-70.438) The Cryosphere 18 4 1983 1999 |
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Open Polar |
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Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
op_collection_id |
ftnonlinearchiv |
language |
English |
topic |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
spellingShingle |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung Veldhuijsen, Sanne B. M. van de Berg, Willem Jan Kuipers Munneke, Peter van den Broeke, Michiel R. Firn air content changes on Antarctic ice shelves under three future warming scenarios |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
The Antarctic firn layer provides pore space in which an estimated 94 % to 96 % of the surface melt refreezes or is retained as liquid water. Future depletion of firn pore space by increased surface melt, densification and formation of low-permeability ice slabs can potentially lead to meltwater ponding, hydrofracturing and ice-shelf disintegration. Here, we investigate the 21st-century evolution of total firn air content (FAC) and accessible FAC (i.e. the pore space that meltwater can reach) across Antarctic ice shelves. We use the semi-empirical IMAU Firn Densification Model (IMAU-FDM) with an updated dynamical densification expression to cope with changing climate forcing. The firn model is forced by general circulation model output of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) for three climate emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), dynamically downscaled to a 27 km horizontal resolution by the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model version 2.3p2 (RACMO2.3p2). To estimate accessible FAC, we prescribe a relationship between ice-slab thickness and permeability. In our simulations, ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula and the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf in Dronning Maud Land are particularly vulnerable to total FAC depletion (> 50 % decrease by 2100), even for low-emission (SSP1-2.6) and intermediate-emission (SSP2-4.5) scenarios. In the high-emission (SSP5-8.5) scenario in particular, the formation of ice slabs further reduces accessible FAC on ice shelves with low accumulation rates (current rates of < 500 mmw.e.yr-1), including many East Antarctic ice shelves and the Filchner–Ronne, Ross, Pine Island and Larsen C ice shelves. These results underline the potentially large vulnerability of low-accumulation ice shelves to firn air depletion through ice-slab formation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Veldhuijsen, Sanne B. M. van de Berg, Willem Jan Kuipers Munneke, Peter van den Broeke, Michiel R. |
author_facet |
Veldhuijsen, Sanne B. M. van de Berg, Willem Jan Kuipers Munneke, Peter van den Broeke, Michiel R. |
author_sort |
Veldhuijsen, Sanne B. M. |
title |
Firn air content changes on Antarctic ice shelves under three future warming scenarios |
title_short |
Firn air content changes on Antarctic ice shelves under three future warming scenarios |
title_full |
Firn air content changes on Antarctic ice shelves under three future warming scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Firn air content changes on Antarctic ice shelves under three future warming scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Firn air content changes on Antarctic ice shelves under three future warming scenarios |
title_sort |
firn air content changes on antarctic ice shelves under three future warming scenarios |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00073294 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00071470/tc-18-1983-2024.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/1983/2024/tc-18-1983-2024.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(24.461,24.461,-70.438,-70.438) |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Dronning Maud Land Roi Baudouin |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Dronning Maud Land Roi Baudouin |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Dronning Maud Land Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Dronning Maud Land Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
op_relation |
The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00073294 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00071470/tc-18-1983-2024.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/1983/2024/tc-18-1983-2024.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1983 |
op_container_end_page |
1999 |
_version_ |
1800741957437227008 |