Modelling present and future rock wall permafrost distribution in the Sisimiut mountain area, West Greenland
Degrading rock wall permafrost was found responsible for the increase in rockfall and landslide activity in several cold mountain regions across the globe. In Greenland, rock wall permafrost has so far received little attention from the scientific community, despite mountains being a predominant fea...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Copernicus Publications
2024
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00072839 2024-05-19T07:41:10+00:00 Modelling present and future rock wall permafrost distribution in the Sisimiut mountain area, West Greenland Marcer, Marco Duvillard, Pierre-Allain Tomaškovičová, Soňa Nielsen, Steffen Ringsø Revil, André Ingeman-Nielsen, Thomas 2024-04 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1753-2024 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00072839 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00071032/tc-18-1753-2024.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/1753/2024/tc-18-1753-2024.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1753-2024 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00072839 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00071032/tc-18-1753-2024.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/1753/2024/tc-18-1753-2024.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2024 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1753-2024 2024-04-22T23:50:58Z Degrading rock wall permafrost was found responsible for the increase in rockfall and landslide activity in several cold mountain regions across the globe. In Greenland, rock wall permafrost has so far received little attention from the scientific community, despite mountains being a predominant feature on the ice-free coastline and landslide activity being significant. In this study, we aim to make a first step towards a better understanding of rock wall permafrost in Greenland by modelling rock wall temperatures in the mountain area around the town of Sisimiut, which is 68° N on the west coast of Greenland. We first acquire rock surface temperature (RST) data for the period September 2020–September 2022 to model rock surface temperatures from weather forcing. The model is then applied to weather data from 1870 to 2022, generating rock surface temperatures to force transient heat transfer simulations over the same period. By extrapolating this method at the landscape scale, we obtain permafrost distribution maps and ad hoc simulations for complex topographies. Our model results are compared to temperature data from two lowland boreholes (100 m depth) and geophysical data describing frozen and unfrozen conditions across a mid-elevation mountain ridge. Finally, we use regional carbon pathway scenarios 2.6 and 8.5 to evaluate future evolution of rock wall temperatures until the end of the 21st century. Our data and simulation describe discontinuous permafrost distribution in rock walls up to roughly 400 m a.s.l. Future scenarios suggest a decline of deep frozen bodies up to 800 m a.s.l., i.e. the highest summits in the area. In summary, this study depicts a picture of warm permafrost in this area, highlighting its sensitivity to ongoing climate change. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice permafrost Sisimiut The Cryosphere Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA The Cryosphere 18 4 1753 1771 |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Marcer, Marco Duvillard, Pierre-Allain Tomaškovičová, Soňa Nielsen, Steffen Ringsø Revil, André Ingeman-Nielsen, Thomas Modelling present and future rock wall permafrost distribution in the Sisimiut mountain area, West Greenland |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Degrading rock wall permafrost was found responsible for the increase in rockfall and landslide activity in several cold mountain regions across the globe. In Greenland, rock wall permafrost has so far received little attention from the scientific community, despite mountains being a predominant feature on the ice-free coastline and landslide activity being significant. In this study, we aim to make a first step towards a better understanding of rock wall permafrost in Greenland by modelling rock wall temperatures in the mountain area around the town of Sisimiut, which is 68° N on the west coast of Greenland. We first acquire rock surface temperature (RST) data for the period September 2020–September 2022 to model rock surface temperatures from weather forcing. The model is then applied to weather data from 1870 to 2022, generating rock surface temperatures to force transient heat transfer simulations over the same period. By extrapolating this method at the landscape scale, we obtain permafrost distribution maps and ad hoc simulations for complex topographies. Our model results are compared to temperature data from two lowland boreholes (100 m depth) and geophysical data describing frozen and unfrozen conditions across a mid-elevation mountain ridge. Finally, we use regional carbon pathway scenarios 2.6 and 8.5 to evaluate future evolution of rock wall temperatures until the end of the 21st century. Our data and simulation describe discontinuous permafrost distribution in rock walls up to roughly 400 m a.s.l. Future scenarios suggest a decline of deep frozen bodies up to 800 m a.s.l., i.e. the highest summits in the area. In summary, this study depicts a picture of warm permafrost in this area, highlighting its sensitivity to ongoing climate change. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Marcer, Marco Duvillard, Pierre-Allain Tomaškovičová, Soňa Nielsen, Steffen Ringsø Revil, André Ingeman-Nielsen, Thomas |
author_facet |
Marcer, Marco Duvillard, Pierre-Allain Tomaškovičová, Soňa Nielsen, Steffen Ringsø Revil, André Ingeman-Nielsen, Thomas |
author_sort |
Marcer, Marco |
title |
Modelling present and future rock wall permafrost distribution in the Sisimiut mountain area, West Greenland |
title_short |
Modelling present and future rock wall permafrost distribution in the Sisimiut mountain area, West Greenland |
title_full |
Modelling present and future rock wall permafrost distribution in the Sisimiut mountain area, West Greenland |
title_fullStr |
Modelling present and future rock wall permafrost distribution in the Sisimiut mountain area, West Greenland |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling present and future rock wall permafrost distribution in the Sisimiut mountain area, West Greenland |
title_sort |
modelling present and future rock wall permafrost distribution in the sisimiut mountain area, west greenland |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1753-2024 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00072839 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00071032/tc-18-1753-2024.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/1753/2024/tc-18-1753-2024.pdf |
genre |
Greenland Ice permafrost Sisimiut The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice permafrost Sisimiut The Cryosphere |
op_relation |
The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1753-2024 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00072839 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00071032/tc-18-1753-2024.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/1753/2024/tc-18-1753-2024.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1753-2024 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1753 |
op_container_end_page |
1771 |
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1799480759276273664 |