Brief communication: Sea-level projections, adaptation planning, and actionable science

• Main Authors: Lipscomb, William H., Behar, David, Morrison, Monica Ainhorn
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Copernicus Publications 2024
• Subjects: article; Verlagsveröffentlichung; Antarctic; Antarc*; Ice Sheet
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-534; https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00072259; https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00070481/egusphere-2024-534.pdf; https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-534/egusphere-2024-534.pdf

As climate scientists seek to deliver actionable science for adaptation planning, there are risks in using novel results to inform decision-making. Premature acceptance can lead to maladaptation, confusion, and practitioner “whiplash”. We propose that scientific claims should be considered actionable only after meeting a confidence threshold based on the strength of evidence as evaluated by a diverse group of scientific experts. We discuss an influential study that projected rapid sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet retreat but in our view was not actionable. We recommend regular, transparent communications between scientists and practitioners to support the use of actionable science.