Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region as simulated by CESM1-LE
This paper examines teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region and is based on two cases of Community Earth System Model version 1 large ensemble (CESM-LE) climate model simulations: the stationary case with pre-industrial radiative forcing and the climate change case with RCP8.5 r...
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Copernicus Publications
2024
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00071756 2024-04-14T08:06:09+00:00 Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region as simulated by CESM1-LE Jakobson, Erko Jakobson, Liisi 2024-02 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-155-2024 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00071756 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00070017/esd-15-155-2024.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/155/2024/esd-15-155-2024.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Earth System Dynamics -- http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/ -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2578793 -- 2190-4987 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-155-2024 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00071756 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00070017/esd-15-155-2024.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/155/2024/esd-15-155-2024.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2024 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-155-2024 2024-03-19T12:18:16Z This paper examines teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region and is based on two cases of Community Earth System Model version 1 large ensemble (CESM-LE) climate model simulations: the stationary case with pre-industrial radiative forcing and the climate change case with RCP8.5 radiative forcing. The stationary control simulation's 1800-year long time series were used for stationary teleconnection and a 40-member ensemble from the period 1920–2100 is used for teleconnections during ongoing climate change. We analyzed seasonal temperature at a 2 m level, sea-level pressure, sea ice concentration, precipitation, geopotential height, and 10 m level wind speed. The Arctic was divided into seven areas. The Baltic Sea region climate has strong teleconnections with the Arctic climate; the strongest connections are with Svalbard and Greenland region. There is high seasonality in the teleconnections, with the strongest correlations in winter and the lowest correlations in summer, when the local meteorological factors are stronger. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) climate indices can explain most teleconnections in winter and spring. During ongoing climate change, the teleconnection patterns did not show remarkable changes by the end of the 21st century. Minor pattern changes are between the Baltic Sea region temperature and the sea ice concentration. We calculated the correlation between the parameter and its ridge regression estimation to estimate different Arctic regions' collective statistical connections with the Baltic Sea region. The seasonal coefficient of determination, R2, was highest for winter: for T2 m, R2=0.64; for sea level pressure (SLP), R2=0.44; and for precipitation (PREC), R2=0.35. When doing the same for the seasons' previous month values in the Arctic, the relations are considerably weaker, with the highest R2=0.09 being for temperature in the spring. Hence, Arctic climate data forecasting capacity for the Baltic Sea region is weak. Although there are ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Svalbard Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Arctic Greenland Svalbard Earth System Dynamics 15 1 155 165 |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Jakobson, Erko Jakobson, Liisi Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region as simulated by CESM1-LE |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
This paper examines teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region and is based on two cases of Community Earth System Model version 1 large ensemble (CESM-LE) climate model simulations: the stationary case with pre-industrial radiative forcing and the climate change case with RCP8.5 radiative forcing. The stationary control simulation's 1800-year long time series were used for stationary teleconnection and a 40-member ensemble from the period 1920–2100 is used for teleconnections during ongoing climate change. We analyzed seasonal temperature at a 2 m level, sea-level pressure, sea ice concentration, precipitation, geopotential height, and 10 m level wind speed. The Arctic was divided into seven areas. The Baltic Sea region climate has strong teleconnections with the Arctic climate; the strongest connections are with Svalbard and Greenland region. There is high seasonality in the teleconnections, with the strongest correlations in winter and the lowest correlations in summer, when the local meteorological factors are stronger. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) climate indices can explain most teleconnections in winter and spring. During ongoing climate change, the teleconnection patterns did not show remarkable changes by the end of the 21st century. Minor pattern changes are between the Baltic Sea region temperature and the sea ice concentration. We calculated the correlation between the parameter and its ridge regression estimation to estimate different Arctic regions' collective statistical connections with the Baltic Sea region. The seasonal coefficient of determination, R2, was highest for winter: for T2 m, R2=0.64; for sea level pressure (SLP), R2=0.44; and for precipitation (PREC), R2=0.35. When doing the same for the seasons' previous month values in the Arctic, the relations are considerably weaker, with the highest R2=0.09 being for temperature in the spring. Hence, Arctic climate data forecasting capacity for the Baltic Sea region is weak. Although there are ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jakobson, Erko Jakobson, Liisi |
author_facet |
Jakobson, Erko Jakobson, Liisi |
author_sort |
Jakobson, Erko |
title |
Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region as simulated by CESM1-LE |
title_short |
Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region as simulated by CESM1-LE |
title_full |
Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region as simulated by CESM1-LE |
title_fullStr |
Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region as simulated by CESM1-LE |
title_full_unstemmed |
Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region as simulated by CESM1-LE |
title_sort |
atmospheric teleconnections between the arctic and the baltic sea region as simulated by cesm1-le |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-155-2024 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00071756 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00070017/esd-15-155-2024.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/155/2024/esd-15-155-2024.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Greenland Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Greenland Svalbard |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Svalbard |
op_relation |
Earth System Dynamics -- http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/ -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2578793 -- 2190-4987 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-155-2024 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00071756 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00070017/esd-15-155-2024.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/155/2024/esd-15-155-2024.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-155-2024 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
155 |
op_container_end_page |
165 |
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1796302804689616896 |