The YOPP site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) phase 1: project overview and Arctic winter forecast evaluation
Although the quality of weather forecasts in the polar regions is improving, forecast skill there still lags the lower latitudes. So far there have been relatively few efforts to evaluate processes in Numerical Weather Prediction systems using in-situ and remote sensing datasets from meteorological...
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Copernicus Publications
2023
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00070692 2024-01-21T09:59:53+01:00 The YOPP site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) phase 1: project overview and Arctic winter forecast evaluation Day, Jonathan Svensson, Gunilla Casati, Barbara Uttal, Taniel Khalsa, Siri-Jodha Bazile, Eric Akish, Elena Azouz, Niramson Ferrighi, Lara Frank, Helmut Gallagher, Michael Godøy, Øystein Hartten, Leslie Huang, Laura X. Holt, Jareth Di Stefano, Massimo Suomi, Irene Mariani, Zen Morris, Sara O'Connor, Ewan Pirazzini, Roberta Remes, Teresa Fadeev, Rostislav Solomon, Amy Tjernström, Johanna Tolstykh, Mikhail 2023-12 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1951 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00070692 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00069033/egusphere-2023-1951.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-1951/egusphere-2023-1951.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1951 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00070692 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00069033/egusphere-2023-1951.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-1951/egusphere-2023-1951.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2023 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1951 2023-12-25T00:22:42Z Although the quality of weather forecasts in the polar regions is improving, forecast skill there still lags the lower latitudes. So far there have been relatively few efforts to evaluate processes in Numerical Weather Prediction systems using in-situ and remote sensing datasets from meteorological observatories in the terrestrial Arctic and Antarctic, compared to the mid-latitudes. Progress has been limited both by the heterogeneous nature of observatory and forecast data but also by limited availability of the parameters needed to perform process-oriented evaluation in multi-model forecast archives. The YOPP site Model Inter-comparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) is addressing this gap by producing Merged Observatory Data Files (MODFs) and Merged Model Data Files (MMDFs), bringing together observations and forecast data at polar meteorological observatories in a format designed to facilitate process-oriented evaluation. An evaluation of forecast performance was performed at seven Arctic sites, focussing on the first YOPP Special Observing Period in the Northern Hemisphere (SOP1), February and March 2018. It demonstrated that although the characteristics of forecast skill vary between the different sites and systems, an underestimation in boundary layer temperature variance across models, which goes hand in hand with an inability to capture cold extremes, is a common issue at several sites. Diagnostic analysis using surface fluxes suggests that this is at least partly related to insufficient thermal representation of the land-surface in the models, which all use a single layer snow model. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Arctic Antarctic |
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Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Day, Jonathan Svensson, Gunilla Casati, Barbara Uttal, Taniel Khalsa, Siri-Jodha Bazile, Eric Akish, Elena Azouz, Niramson Ferrighi, Lara Frank, Helmut Gallagher, Michael Godøy, Øystein Hartten, Leslie Huang, Laura X. Holt, Jareth Di Stefano, Massimo Suomi, Irene Mariani, Zen Morris, Sara O'Connor, Ewan Pirazzini, Roberta Remes, Teresa Fadeev, Rostislav Solomon, Amy Tjernström, Johanna Tolstykh, Mikhail The YOPP site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) phase 1: project overview and Arctic winter forecast evaluation |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Although the quality of weather forecasts in the polar regions is improving, forecast skill there still lags the lower latitudes. So far there have been relatively few efforts to evaluate processes in Numerical Weather Prediction systems using in-situ and remote sensing datasets from meteorological observatories in the terrestrial Arctic and Antarctic, compared to the mid-latitudes. Progress has been limited both by the heterogeneous nature of observatory and forecast data but also by limited availability of the parameters needed to perform process-oriented evaluation in multi-model forecast archives. The YOPP site Model Inter-comparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) is addressing this gap by producing Merged Observatory Data Files (MODFs) and Merged Model Data Files (MMDFs), bringing together observations and forecast data at polar meteorological observatories in a format designed to facilitate process-oriented evaluation. An evaluation of forecast performance was performed at seven Arctic sites, focussing on the first YOPP Special Observing Period in the Northern Hemisphere (SOP1), February and March 2018. It demonstrated that although the characteristics of forecast skill vary between the different sites and systems, an underestimation in boundary layer temperature variance across models, which goes hand in hand with an inability to capture cold extremes, is a common issue at several sites. Diagnostic analysis using surface fluxes suggests that this is at least partly related to insufficient thermal representation of the land-surface in the models, which all use a single layer snow model. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Day, Jonathan Svensson, Gunilla Casati, Barbara Uttal, Taniel Khalsa, Siri-Jodha Bazile, Eric Akish, Elena Azouz, Niramson Ferrighi, Lara Frank, Helmut Gallagher, Michael Godøy, Øystein Hartten, Leslie Huang, Laura X. Holt, Jareth Di Stefano, Massimo Suomi, Irene Mariani, Zen Morris, Sara O'Connor, Ewan Pirazzini, Roberta Remes, Teresa Fadeev, Rostislav Solomon, Amy Tjernström, Johanna Tolstykh, Mikhail |
author_facet |
Day, Jonathan Svensson, Gunilla Casati, Barbara Uttal, Taniel Khalsa, Siri-Jodha Bazile, Eric Akish, Elena Azouz, Niramson Ferrighi, Lara Frank, Helmut Gallagher, Michael Godøy, Øystein Hartten, Leslie Huang, Laura X. Holt, Jareth Di Stefano, Massimo Suomi, Irene Mariani, Zen Morris, Sara O'Connor, Ewan Pirazzini, Roberta Remes, Teresa Fadeev, Rostislav Solomon, Amy Tjernström, Johanna Tolstykh, Mikhail |
author_sort |
Day, Jonathan |
title |
The YOPP site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) phase 1: project overview and Arctic winter forecast evaluation |
title_short |
The YOPP site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) phase 1: project overview and Arctic winter forecast evaluation |
title_full |
The YOPP site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) phase 1: project overview and Arctic winter forecast evaluation |
title_fullStr |
The YOPP site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) phase 1: project overview and Arctic winter forecast evaluation |
title_full_unstemmed |
The YOPP site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) phase 1: project overview and Arctic winter forecast evaluation |
title_sort |
yopp site model intercomparison project (yoppsitemip) phase 1: project overview and arctic winter forecast evaluation |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1951 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00070692 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00069033/egusphere-2023-1951.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-1951/egusphere-2023-1951.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1951 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00070692 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00069033/egusphere-2023-1951.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-1951/egusphere-2023-1951.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1951 |
_version_ |
1788700480015171584 |