Projected future changes in cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the Upper Heihe River, China
Climate warming exacerbates the degradation of the mountain cryosphere, including glacier retreat, reduction in snow cover area, and permafrost degradation. These changes dramatically alter the local and downstream hydrological regime, posing significant threats to basin-scale water resource managem...
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Copernicus Publications
2023
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00070633 2024-01-21T10:09:35+01:00 Projected future changes in cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the Upper Heihe River, China Chang, Zehua Gao, Hongkai Yong, Leilei Wang, Kang Chen, Rensheng Han, Chuntan Demberel, Otgonbayar Dorjsuren, Batsuren Hou, Shugui Duan, Zheng 2023-12 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3043 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00070633 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068976/egusphere-2023-3043.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-3043/egusphere-2023-3043.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3043 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00070633 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068976/egusphere-2023-3043.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-3043/egusphere-2023-3043.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2023 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3043 2023-12-25T00:22:44Z Climate warming exacerbates the degradation of the mountain cryosphere, including glacier retreat, reduction in snow cover area, and permafrost degradation. These changes dramatically alter the local and downstream hydrological regime, posing significant threats to basin-scale water resource management and sustainable development. However, there is still a lack of systematic research that evaluates the variation of cryospheric elements in mountainous catchments and their impacts on future hydrology and water resources. In this study, we developed an integrated cryospheric-hydrologic model, referred to as the FLEX-Cryo model. This model comprehensively considers glaciers, snow cover, frozen soil, and their dynamic impacts on hydrological processes in the mountainous Hulu catchment located in the Upper Heihe river of China. We utilized the state-of-the-art climate change projection data from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to simulate the future changes in the mountainous cryosphere and their impacts on hydrology. Our findings showed that the two glaciers in the Hulu catchment will completely melt out around the years 2045–2051. By the end of the 21st century, the annual maximum snow water equivalent is projected to decrease by 41.4 % and 46.0 %, while the duration of snow cover will be reduced by approximately 45 and 70 days. The freeze onset of seasonal frozen soil is expected to be delayed by 10 and 22 days, while the thaw onset of permafrost is likely to advance by 19 and 32 days. Moreover, the maximum freeze depth of seasonal frozen soil is projected to decrease by 5.2 and 10.9 cm per decade, and the depth of the active layer will increase by 8.2 and 15.5 cm per decade. Regarding hydrology, runoff exhibits a decreasing trend until the complete melt-out of glaciers, resulting in a total runoff decrease of 15.6 % and 18.1 %. Subsequently, total runoff shows an increasing trend, primarily due to an increase in precipitation. Permafrost degradation causes the duration of low ... Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Hulu ENVELOPE(8.610,8.610,62.837,62.837) |
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Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
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ftnonlinearchiv |
language |
English |
topic |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Chang, Zehua Gao, Hongkai Yong, Leilei Wang, Kang Chen, Rensheng Han, Chuntan Demberel, Otgonbayar Dorjsuren, Batsuren Hou, Shugui Duan, Zheng Projected future changes in cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the Upper Heihe River, China |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Climate warming exacerbates the degradation of the mountain cryosphere, including glacier retreat, reduction in snow cover area, and permafrost degradation. These changes dramatically alter the local and downstream hydrological regime, posing significant threats to basin-scale water resource management and sustainable development. However, there is still a lack of systematic research that evaluates the variation of cryospheric elements in mountainous catchments and their impacts on future hydrology and water resources. In this study, we developed an integrated cryospheric-hydrologic model, referred to as the FLEX-Cryo model. This model comprehensively considers glaciers, snow cover, frozen soil, and their dynamic impacts on hydrological processes in the mountainous Hulu catchment located in the Upper Heihe river of China. We utilized the state-of-the-art climate change projection data from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to simulate the future changes in the mountainous cryosphere and their impacts on hydrology. Our findings showed that the two glaciers in the Hulu catchment will completely melt out around the years 2045–2051. By the end of the 21st century, the annual maximum snow water equivalent is projected to decrease by 41.4 % and 46.0 %, while the duration of snow cover will be reduced by approximately 45 and 70 days. The freeze onset of seasonal frozen soil is expected to be delayed by 10 and 22 days, while the thaw onset of permafrost is likely to advance by 19 and 32 days. Moreover, the maximum freeze depth of seasonal frozen soil is projected to decrease by 5.2 and 10.9 cm per decade, and the depth of the active layer will increase by 8.2 and 15.5 cm per decade. Regarding hydrology, runoff exhibits a decreasing trend until the complete melt-out of glaciers, resulting in a total runoff decrease of 15.6 % and 18.1 %. Subsequently, total runoff shows an increasing trend, primarily due to an increase in precipitation. Permafrost degradation causes the duration of low ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chang, Zehua Gao, Hongkai Yong, Leilei Wang, Kang Chen, Rensheng Han, Chuntan Demberel, Otgonbayar Dorjsuren, Batsuren Hou, Shugui Duan, Zheng |
author_facet |
Chang, Zehua Gao, Hongkai Yong, Leilei Wang, Kang Chen, Rensheng Han, Chuntan Demberel, Otgonbayar Dorjsuren, Batsuren Hou, Shugui Duan, Zheng |
author_sort |
Chang, Zehua |
title |
Projected future changes in cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the Upper Heihe River, China |
title_short |
Projected future changes in cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the Upper Heihe River, China |
title_full |
Projected future changes in cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the Upper Heihe River, China |
title_fullStr |
Projected future changes in cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the Upper Heihe River, China |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected future changes in cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the Upper Heihe River, China |
title_sort |
projected future changes in cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the upper heihe river, china |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3043 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00070633 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068976/egusphere-2023-3043.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-3043/egusphere-2023-3043.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(8.610,8.610,62.837,62.837) |
geographic |
Hulu |
geographic_facet |
Hulu |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3043 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00070633 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068976/egusphere-2023-3043.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-3043/egusphere-2023-3043.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3043 |
_version_ |
1788700667216396288 |