AMOC Stability Amid Tipping Ice Sheets: The Crucial Role of Rate and Noise
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has recently been categorised as core tipping element, for it is believed to be prone to critical transition under climate change, implying drastic consequences on a planetary scale. Moreover, the AMOC is strongly coupled to polar ice sheets via...
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00070269 2024-01-07T09:39:02+01:00 AMOC Stability Amid Tipping Ice Sheets: The Crucial Role of Rate and Noise Sinet, Sacha Ashwin, Peter von der Heydt, Anna S. Dijkstra, Henk A. 2023-12 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2661 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00070269 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068624/egusphere-2023-2661.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2661/egusphere-2023-2661.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2661 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00070269 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068624/egusphere-2023-2661.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2661/egusphere-2023-2661.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2023 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2661 2023-12-11T00:22:47Z The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has recently been categorised as core tipping element, for it is believed to be prone to critical transition under climate change, implying drastic consequences on a planetary scale. Moreover, the AMOC is strongly coupled to polar ice sheets via meltwater fluxes. On one hand, most studies agree on the fact that a collapse of the Greenland ice sheet would result in a weakening of AMOC. On the other hand, the consequences of a collapse of the West Antarctica ice sheet are less well understood. However, some studies suggest that meltwater originating from the Southern Hemisphere is able to stabilize the AMOC. Using a conceptual model of the AMOC and a minimal parameterization of ice sheet collapse, we investigate the origin and relevance of this stabilization effect in both the deterministic and stochastic cases. While a substantial stabilization is found in both cases, we find that important rate and noise-induced effects result in bifurcation-induced tipping approaches to be inaccurate for predicting the AMOC stability. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet West Antarctica Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Greenland West Antarctica |
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English |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Sinet, Sacha Ashwin, Peter von der Heydt, Anna S. Dijkstra, Henk A. AMOC Stability Amid Tipping Ice Sheets: The Crucial Role of Rate and Noise |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has recently been categorised as core tipping element, for it is believed to be prone to critical transition under climate change, implying drastic consequences on a planetary scale. Moreover, the AMOC is strongly coupled to polar ice sheets via meltwater fluxes. On one hand, most studies agree on the fact that a collapse of the Greenland ice sheet would result in a weakening of AMOC. On the other hand, the consequences of a collapse of the West Antarctica ice sheet are less well understood. However, some studies suggest that meltwater originating from the Southern Hemisphere is able to stabilize the AMOC. Using a conceptual model of the AMOC and a minimal parameterization of ice sheet collapse, we investigate the origin and relevance of this stabilization effect in both the deterministic and stochastic cases. While a substantial stabilization is found in both cases, we find that important rate and noise-induced effects result in bifurcation-induced tipping approaches to be inaccurate for predicting the AMOC stability. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sinet, Sacha Ashwin, Peter von der Heydt, Anna S. Dijkstra, Henk A. |
author_facet |
Sinet, Sacha Ashwin, Peter von der Heydt, Anna S. Dijkstra, Henk A. |
author_sort |
Sinet, Sacha |
title |
AMOC Stability Amid Tipping Ice Sheets: The Crucial Role of Rate and Noise |
title_short |
AMOC Stability Amid Tipping Ice Sheets: The Crucial Role of Rate and Noise |
title_full |
AMOC Stability Amid Tipping Ice Sheets: The Crucial Role of Rate and Noise |
title_fullStr |
AMOC Stability Amid Tipping Ice Sheets: The Crucial Role of Rate and Noise |
title_full_unstemmed |
AMOC Stability Amid Tipping Ice Sheets: The Crucial Role of Rate and Noise |
title_sort |
amoc stability amid tipping ice sheets: the crucial role of rate and noise |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2661 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00070269 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068624/egusphere-2023-2661.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2661/egusphere-2023-2661.pdf |
geographic |
Greenland West Antarctica |
geographic_facet |
Greenland West Antarctica |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet West Antarctica |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2661 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00070269 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068624/egusphere-2023-2661.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2661/egusphere-2023-2661.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2661 |
_version_ |
1787428032865107968 |