Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic ice shelf melting in conditions plausible by late 23rd century in a high-end scenario
How much Antarctic ice shelf basal melt rates can increase in response to global warming remains an open question. Here we describe the response of the Southern Ocean and ice shelf cavities to an abrupt change to high-end atmospheric conditions plausible by the late 23rd century under the SSP5-8.5 s...
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Copernicus Publications
2023
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00070034 2023-12-24T10:08:06+01:00 Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic ice shelf melting in conditions plausible by late 23rd century in a high-end scenario Mathiot, Pierre Jourdain, Nicolas C. 2023-11 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1595-2023 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00070034 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068397/os-19-1595-2023.pdf https://os.copernicus.org/articles/19/1595/2023/os-19-1595-2023.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Ocean Science -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2183769 -- http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/os/os.html -- 1812-0792 https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1595-2023 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00070034 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068397/os-19-1595-2023.pdf https://os.copernicus.org/articles/19/1595/2023/os-19-1595-2023.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2023 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1595-2023 2023-11-27T00:22:45Z How much Antarctic ice shelf basal melt rates can increase in response to global warming remains an open question. Here we describe the response of the Southern Ocean and ice shelf cavities to an abrupt change to high-end atmospheric conditions plausible by the late 23rd century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. To achieve this objective, we first present and evaluate a new 0.25∘ global configuration of the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean NEMO System Team, 2019) ocean and sea ice model. Our present-day simulations demonstrate good agreement with observational data for key variables such as temperature, salinity, and ice shelf melt rates, despite the remaining difficulties to simulate the interannual variability in the Amundsen Sea. The ocean response to the high-end atmospheric perturbation includes a strengthening and extension of the Ross and Weddell gyres and a quasi-disappearance of sea ice, with a subsequent decrease in production of High Salinity Shelf Water and increased intrusion of warmer water onto the continental shelves favoured by changes in baroclinic currents at the shelf break. We propose to classify the perturbed continental shelf as a “warm–fresh shelf”. This induces a substantial increase in ice shelf basal melt rates, particularly in the coldest seas, with a total basal mass loss rising from 1180 to 15 700 Gt yr−1 and an Antarctica averaged melt rate increasing from 0.8 to 10.6 m yr−1. In the perturbed simulation, most ice shelves around Antarctica experience conditions that are currently found in the Amundsen Sea, while the Amundsen Sea warms by 2 ∘C. These idealised projections can be used as a base to calibrate basal melt parameterisations used in long-term ice sheet projections. Article in Journal/Newspaper Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Sea ice Southern Ocean Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Antarctic Southern Ocean Amundsen Sea Weddell Ocean Science 19 6 1595 1615 |
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Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
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English |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Mathiot, Pierre Jourdain, Nicolas C. Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic ice shelf melting in conditions plausible by late 23rd century in a high-end scenario |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
How much Antarctic ice shelf basal melt rates can increase in response to global warming remains an open question. Here we describe the response of the Southern Ocean and ice shelf cavities to an abrupt change to high-end atmospheric conditions plausible by the late 23rd century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. To achieve this objective, we first present and evaluate a new 0.25∘ global configuration of the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean NEMO System Team, 2019) ocean and sea ice model. Our present-day simulations demonstrate good agreement with observational data for key variables such as temperature, salinity, and ice shelf melt rates, despite the remaining difficulties to simulate the interannual variability in the Amundsen Sea. The ocean response to the high-end atmospheric perturbation includes a strengthening and extension of the Ross and Weddell gyres and a quasi-disappearance of sea ice, with a subsequent decrease in production of High Salinity Shelf Water and increased intrusion of warmer water onto the continental shelves favoured by changes in baroclinic currents at the shelf break. We propose to classify the perturbed continental shelf as a “warm–fresh shelf”. This induces a substantial increase in ice shelf basal melt rates, particularly in the coldest seas, with a total basal mass loss rising from 1180 to 15 700 Gt yr−1 and an Antarctica averaged melt rate increasing from 0.8 to 10.6 m yr−1. In the perturbed simulation, most ice shelves around Antarctica experience conditions that are currently found in the Amundsen Sea, while the Amundsen Sea warms by 2 ∘C. These idealised projections can be used as a base to calibrate basal melt parameterisations used in long-term ice sheet projections. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mathiot, Pierre Jourdain, Nicolas C. |
author_facet |
Mathiot, Pierre Jourdain, Nicolas C. |
author_sort |
Mathiot, Pierre |
title |
Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic ice shelf melting in conditions plausible by late 23rd century in a high-end scenario |
title_short |
Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic ice shelf melting in conditions plausible by late 23rd century in a high-end scenario |
title_full |
Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic ice shelf melting in conditions plausible by late 23rd century in a high-end scenario |
title_fullStr |
Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic ice shelf melting in conditions plausible by late 23rd century in a high-end scenario |
title_full_unstemmed |
Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic ice shelf melting in conditions plausible by late 23rd century in a high-end scenario |
title_sort |
southern ocean warming and antarctic ice shelf melting in conditions plausible by late 23rd century in a high-end scenario |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1595-2023 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00070034 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068397/os-19-1595-2023.pdf https://os.copernicus.org/articles/19/1595/2023/os-19-1595-2023.pdf |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean Amundsen Sea Weddell |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean Amundsen Sea Weddell |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Sea ice Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Sea ice Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
Ocean Science -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2183769 -- http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/os/os.html -- 1812-0792 https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1595-2023 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00070034 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068397/os-19-1595-2023.pdf https://os.copernicus.org/articles/19/1595/2023/os-19-1595-2023.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1595-2023 |
container_title |
Ocean Science |
container_volume |
19 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1595 |
op_container_end_page |
1615 |
_version_ |
1786174603994857472 |