Calibration of short-term sea ice concentration forecasts using deep learning
Reliable short-term sea ice forecasts are needed to support maritime operations in polar regions. While sea ice forecasts produced by physical-based models still have limited accuracy, statistical post-processing techniques (often called calibration) can be applied to reduce forecast errors. In this...
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2023
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2439 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00069836 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068207/egusphere-2023-2439.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2439/egusphere-2023-2439.pdf |
id |
ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00069836 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00069836 2023-12-17T10:49:44+01:00 Calibration of short-term sea ice concentration forecasts using deep learning Palerme, Cyril Lavergne, Thomas Rusin, Jozef Melsom, Arne Brajard, Julien Kvanum, Are Frode Macdonald Sørensen, Atle Bertino, Laurent Müller, Malte 2023-11 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2439 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00069836 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068207/egusphere-2023-2439.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2439/egusphere-2023-2439.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2439 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00069836 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068207/egusphere-2023-2439.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2439/egusphere-2023-2439.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2023 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2439 2023-11-20T00:22:46Z Reliable short-term sea ice forecasts are needed to support maritime operations in polar regions. While sea ice forecasts produced by physical-based models still have limited accuracy, statistical post-processing techniques (often called calibration) can be applied to reduce forecast errors. In this study, post-processing methods based on supervised machine learning have been developed for improving the skill of sea ice concentration forecasts from the TOPAZ4 prediction system for lead times from 1 to 10 days. The deep learning models use predictors from TOPAZ4 sea ice forecasts, weather forecasts, and sea ice concentration observations. On average, the forecasts from the deep learning models have a root mean square error 41 % lower than TOPAZ4 forecasts, and 29 % lower than forecasts based on persistence of the sea ice concentration observations. They also significantly improve the forecasts for the location of the ice edges, with similar improvements as for the root mean square error. Furthermore, the impact of different type of predictors (observations, sea ice and weather forecasts) on the predictions has been evaluated. Sea ice observations are the most important type of predictors, and the weather forecasts have a much stronger impact on the predictions than sea ice forecasts. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
op_collection_id |
ftnonlinearchiv |
language |
English |
topic |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
spellingShingle |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung Palerme, Cyril Lavergne, Thomas Rusin, Jozef Melsom, Arne Brajard, Julien Kvanum, Are Frode Macdonald Sørensen, Atle Bertino, Laurent Müller, Malte Calibration of short-term sea ice concentration forecasts using deep learning |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Reliable short-term sea ice forecasts are needed to support maritime operations in polar regions. While sea ice forecasts produced by physical-based models still have limited accuracy, statistical post-processing techniques (often called calibration) can be applied to reduce forecast errors. In this study, post-processing methods based on supervised machine learning have been developed for improving the skill of sea ice concentration forecasts from the TOPAZ4 prediction system for lead times from 1 to 10 days. The deep learning models use predictors from TOPAZ4 sea ice forecasts, weather forecasts, and sea ice concentration observations. On average, the forecasts from the deep learning models have a root mean square error 41 % lower than TOPAZ4 forecasts, and 29 % lower than forecasts based on persistence of the sea ice concentration observations. They also significantly improve the forecasts for the location of the ice edges, with similar improvements as for the root mean square error. Furthermore, the impact of different type of predictors (observations, sea ice and weather forecasts) on the predictions has been evaluated. Sea ice observations are the most important type of predictors, and the weather forecasts have a much stronger impact on the predictions than sea ice forecasts. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Palerme, Cyril Lavergne, Thomas Rusin, Jozef Melsom, Arne Brajard, Julien Kvanum, Are Frode Macdonald Sørensen, Atle Bertino, Laurent Müller, Malte |
author_facet |
Palerme, Cyril Lavergne, Thomas Rusin, Jozef Melsom, Arne Brajard, Julien Kvanum, Are Frode Macdonald Sørensen, Atle Bertino, Laurent Müller, Malte |
author_sort |
Palerme, Cyril |
title |
Calibration of short-term sea ice concentration forecasts using deep learning |
title_short |
Calibration of short-term sea ice concentration forecasts using deep learning |
title_full |
Calibration of short-term sea ice concentration forecasts using deep learning |
title_fullStr |
Calibration of short-term sea ice concentration forecasts using deep learning |
title_full_unstemmed |
Calibration of short-term sea ice concentration forecasts using deep learning |
title_sort |
calibration of short-term sea ice concentration forecasts using deep learning |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2439 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00069836 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068207/egusphere-2023-2439.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2439/egusphere-2023-2439.pdf |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2439 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00069836 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068207/egusphere-2023-2439.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2439/egusphere-2023-2439.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2439 |
_version_ |
1785574291033554944 |