The Temporal Phasing of Rapid Dansgaard–Oeschger Warming Events Cannot Be Reliably Determined
Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) warming events occurred throughout the last glacial period. Greenland ice cores show a rapid warming during each stadial to interstadial transition, alongside abrupt loss of sea ice and major reorganisation of the atmospheric circulation. Other records also indicate simultane...
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00069704 2023-12-10T09:49:11+01:00 The Temporal Phasing of Rapid Dansgaard–Oeschger Warming Events Cannot Be Reliably Determined Slattery, John Sime, Louise C. Muschitiello, Francesco Riechers, Keno 2023-11 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2496 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00069704 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068079/egusphere-2023-2496.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2496/egusphere-2023-2496.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2496 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00069704 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068079/egusphere-2023-2496.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2496/egusphere-2023-2496.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2023 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2496 2023-11-13T00:22:47Z Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) warming events occurred throughout the last glacial period. Greenland ice cores show a rapid warming during each stadial to interstadial transition, alongside abrupt loss of sea ice and major reorganisation of the atmospheric circulation. Other records also indicate simultaneous abrupt changes to the oceanic circulation. Recently, an advanced Bayesian ramp fitting method has been developed and used to investigate time lags between transitions in these different climate elements, with a view to determining the relative order of these changes. Here, we subject this method to a critical review. Using ice core data, climate model output, and carefully synthesised data representing DO warming events, we demonstrate that the method suffers from noise-induced bias of up to 15 years. This bias means that the method will tend to yield transition onsets that are too early, and we find that the estimated timings of noisier transitions are more strongly biased. Further investigation of DO warming event records in climate models and ice core data reveals that the bias is on the same order of magnitude as potential timing differences between the abrupt transitions of different climate elements. Additionally, we find that higher-resolution records would not reduce this bias. We conclude that time lags of less than 20 years cannot be reliably detected, as we cannot exclude the possibility that they result solely from the bias. This prevents the unambiguous determination of the temporal phasing of DO warming events. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Greenland ice cores ice core Sea ice Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Greenland |
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English |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Slattery, John Sime, Louise C. Muschitiello, Francesco Riechers, Keno The Temporal Phasing of Rapid Dansgaard–Oeschger Warming Events Cannot Be Reliably Determined |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) warming events occurred throughout the last glacial period. Greenland ice cores show a rapid warming during each stadial to interstadial transition, alongside abrupt loss of sea ice and major reorganisation of the atmospheric circulation. Other records also indicate simultaneous abrupt changes to the oceanic circulation. Recently, an advanced Bayesian ramp fitting method has been developed and used to investigate time lags between transitions in these different climate elements, with a view to determining the relative order of these changes. Here, we subject this method to a critical review. Using ice core data, climate model output, and carefully synthesised data representing DO warming events, we demonstrate that the method suffers from noise-induced bias of up to 15 years. This bias means that the method will tend to yield transition onsets that are too early, and we find that the estimated timings of noisier transitions are more strongly biased. Further investigation of DO warming event records in climate models and ice core data reveals that the bias is on the same order of magnitude as potential timing differences between the abrupt transitions of different climate elements. Additionally, we find that higher-resolution records would not reduce this bias. We conclude that time lags of less than 20 years cannot be reliably detected, as we cannot exclude the possibility that they result solely from the bias. This prevents the unambiguous determination of the temporal phasing of DO warming events. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Slattery, John Sime, Louise C. Muschitiello, Francesco Riechers, Keno |
author_facet |
Slattery, John Sime, Louise C. Muschitiello, Francesco Riechers, Keno |
author_sort |
Slattery, John |
title |
The Temporal Phasing of Rapid Dansgaard–Oeschger Warming Events Cannot Be Reliably Determined |
title_short |
The Temporal Phasing of Rapid Dansgaard–Oeschger Warming Events Cannot Be Reliably Determined |
title_full |
The Temporal Phasing of Rapid Dansgaard–Oeschger Warming Events Cannot Be Reliably Determined |
title_fullStr |
The Temporal Phasing of Rapid Dansgaard–Oeschger Warming Events Cannot Be Reliably Determined |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Temporal Phasing of Rapid Dansgaard–Oeschger Warming Events Cannot Be Reliably Determined |
title_sort |
temporal phasing of rapid dansgaard–oeschger warming events cannot be reliably determined |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2496 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00069704 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068079/egusphere-2023-2496.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2496/egusphere-2023-2496.pdf |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Greenland ice cores ice core Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Greenland Greenland ice cores ice core Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2496 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00069704 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068079/egusphere-2023-2496.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2496/egusphere-2023-2496.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2496 |
_version_ |
1784893516363595776 |