The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple
It is virtually certain that Antarctica's contribution to sea-level rise will increase with future warming, although competing mass balance processes hamper accurate quantification of the exact magnitudes. Today, ocean-induced melting underneath the floating ice shelves dominates mass losses, b...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Copernicus Publications
2023
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00069637 2023-12-03T10:13:31+01:00 The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple Garbe, Julius Zeitz, Maria Krebs-Kanzow, Uta Winkelmann, Ricarda 2023-11 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00069637 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068015/tc-17-4571-2023.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/4571/2023/tc-17-4571-2023.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00069637 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068015/tc-17-4571-2023.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/4571/2023/tc-17-4571-2023.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2023 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023 2023-11-06T00:22:50Z It is virtually certain that Antarctica's contribution to sea-level rise will increase with future warming, although competing mass balance processes hamper accurate quantification of the exact magnitudes. Today, ocean-induced melting underneath the floating ice shelves dominates mass losses, but melting at the surface will gain importance as global warming continues. Meltwater at the ice surface has crucial implications for the ice sheet's stability, as it increases the risk of hydrofracturing and ice-shelf collapse that could cause enhanced glacier outflow into the ocean. Simultaneously, positive feedbacks between ice and atmosphere can accelerate mass losses and increase the ice sheet's sensitivity to warming. However, due to long response times, it may take hundreds to thousands of years until the ice sheet fully adjusts to the environmental changes. Therefore, ice-sheet model simulations must be computationally fast and capture the relevant feedbacks, including the ones at the ice–atmosphere interface. Here we use the novel surface melt module dEBM-simple (a slightly modified version of the “simple” diurnal Energy Balance Model) coupled to the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM, together referred to as PISM-dEBM-simple) to estimate the impact of 21st-century atmospheric warming on Antarctic surface melt and ice dynamics. As an enhancement compared to the widely adopted positive degree-day (PDD) scheme, dEBM-simple includes an implicit diurnal cycle and computes melt not only from the temperature, but also from the influence of solar radiation and changes in ice albedo, thus accounting for the melt–albedo feedback. We calibrate PISM-dEBM-simple to reproduce historical and present-day Antarctic surface melt rates given by the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2.3p2 and use the calibrated model to assess the range of possible future surface melt trajectories under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5 warming projections until the year 2100. To investigate the committed impacts of the enhanced surface ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Antarctic The Cryosphere 17 11 4571 4599 |
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Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
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English |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Garbe, Julius Zeitz, Maria Krebs-Kanzow, Uta Winkelmann, Ricarda The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
It is virtually certain that Antarctica's contribution to sea-level rise will increase with future warming, although competing mass balance processes hamper accurate quantification of the exact magnitudes. Today, ocean-induced melting underneath the floating ice shelves dominates mass losses, but melting at the surface will gain importance as global warming continues. Meltwater at the ice surface has crucial implications for the ice sheet's stability, as it increases the risk of hydrofracturing and ice-shelf collapse that could cause enhanced glacier outflow into the ocean. Simultaneously, positive feedbacks between ice and atmosphere can accelerate mass losses and increase the ice sheet's sensitivity to warming. However, due to long response times, it may take hundreds to thousands of years until the ice sheet fully adjusts to the environmental changes. Therefore, ice-sheet model simulations must be computationally fast and capture the relevant feedbacks, including the ones at the ice–atmosphere interface. Here we use the novel surface melt module dEBM-simple (a slightly modified version of the “simple” diurnal Energy Balance Model) coupled to the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM, together referred to as PISM-dEBM-simple) to estimate the impact of 21st-century atmospheric warming on Antarctic surface melt and ice dynamics. As an enhancement compared to the widely adopted positive degree-day (PDD) scheme, dEBM-simple includes an implicit diurnal cycle and computes melt not only from the temperature, but also from the influence of solar radiation and changes in ice albedo, thus accounting for the melt–albedo feedback. We calibrate PISM-dEBM-simple to reproduce historical and present-day Antarctic surface melt rates given by the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2.3p2 and use the calibrated model to assess the range of possible future surface melt trajectories under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5 warming projections until the year 2100. To investigate the committed impacts of the enhanced surface ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Garbe, Julius Zeitz, Maria Krebs-Kanzow, Uta Winkelmann, Ricarda |
author_facet |
Garbe, Julius Zeitz, Maria Krebs-Kanzow, Uta Winkelmann, Ricarda |
author_sort |
Garbe, Julius |
title |
The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple |
title_short |
The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple |
title_full |
The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple |
title_fullStr |
The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple |
title_full_unstemmed |
The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple |
title_sort |
evolution of future antarctic surface melt using pism-debm-simple |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00069637 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068015/tc-17-4571-2023.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/4571/2023/tc-17-4571-2023.pdf |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
op_relation |
The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00069637 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00068015/tc-17-4571-2023.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/4571/2023/tc-17-4571-2023.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
4571 |
op_container_end_page |
4599 |
_version_ |
1784260306734678016 |