The role of upper ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal time scales
In recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has undergone changes associated with enhanced poleward inflow of Atlantic and Pacific waters and increased heat flux exchange with the atmosphere in seasonally ice-free regions. The associated changes in upper ocean heat content can alter the exchange of energy a...
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Copernicus Publications
2023
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00068812 2023-10-09T21:48:06+02:00 The role of upper ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal time scales Bianco, Elena Iovino, Doroteaciro Masina, Simona Materia, Stefano Ruggieri, Paolo 2023-09 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1406 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00068812 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00067225/egusphere-2023-1406.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-1406/egusphere-2023-1406.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1406 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00068812 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00067225/egusphere-2023-1406.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-1406/egusphere-2023-1406.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2023 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1406 2023-09-17T23:34:49Z In recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has undergone changes associated with enhanced poleward inflow of Atlantic and Pacific waters and increased heat flux exchange with the atmosphere in seasonally ice-free regions. The associated changes in upper ocean heat content can alter the exchange of energy at the ocean-ice interface. Yet, the role of ocean heat content in modulating Arctic sea ice variability is poorly documented, particularly at regional scale. We analyze ocean heat transports and surface heat fluxes between 1980–2021 using two eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses, C-GLORSv5 and ORAS5, to assess the surface energy budget of the Arctic Ocean and its regional seas. We then assess the role of upper ocean heat content, computed in the surface mixed layer (Qml) and in the 0–300 m layer (Q300), as a sub-seasonal precursor of sea ice variability by means of lag correlations. Our results reveal that in the Pacific Arctic regions, sea ice variability in autumn is linked with Qml anomalies leading by 1 to 3 months, and this relationship has strengthened in the Laptev and East Siberian seas during 2001–2021 relative to 1980–2000, primarily due to reduced surface heat loss since the mid-2000s. Q300 anomalies act as a precursor for wintertime sea ice variability in the Barents and Kara seas, with considerable strengthening and expansion of this link from 1980–2000 and 2001–2021 in both reanalyses. Our results highlight the role played by upper ocean heat content in modulating the interannual variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal timescales. Heat stored in the ocean has important implications for the predictability of sea ice, calling for improvements in forecast initialization and focus upon regional predictions in the Arctic region. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean laptev Pacific Arctic Sea ice Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Arctic Arctic Ocean Pacific |
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Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
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ftnonlinearchiv |
language |
English |
topic |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Bianco, Elena Iovino, Doroteaciro Masina, Simona Materia, Stefano Ruggieri, Paolo The role of upper ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal time scales |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
In recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has undergone changes associated with enhanced poleward inflow of Atlantic and Pacific waters and increased heat flux exchange with the atmosphere in seasonally ice-free regions. The associated changes in upper ocean heat content can alter the exchange of energy at the ocean-ice interface. Yet, the role of ocean heat content in modulating Arctic sea ice variability is poorly documented, particularly at regional scale. We analyze ocean heat transports and surface heat fluxes between 1980–2021 using two eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses, C-GLORSv5 and ORAS5, to assess the surface energy budget of the Arctic Ocean and its regional seas. We then assess the role of upper ocean heat content, computed in the surface mixed layer (Qml) and in the 0–300 m layer (Q300), as a sub-seasonal precursor of sea ice variability by means of lag correlations. Our results reveal that in the Pacific Arctic regions, sea ice variability in autumn is linked with Qml anomalies leading by 1 to 3 months, and this relationship has strengthened in the Laptev and East Siberian seas during 2001–2021 relative to 1980–2000, primarily due to reduced surface heat loss since the mid-2000s. Q300 anomalies act as a precursor for wintertime sea ice variability in the Barents and Kara seas, with considerable strengthening and expansion of this link from 1980–2000 and 2001–2021 in both reanalyses. Our results highlight the role played by upper ocean heat content in modulating the interannual variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal timescales. Heat stored in the ocean has important implications for the predictability of sea ice, calling for improvements in forecast initialization and focus upon regional predictions in the Arctic region. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bianco, Elena Iovino, Doroteaciro Masina, Simona Materia, Stefano Ruggieri, Paolo |
author_facet |
Bianco, Elena Iovino, Doroteaciro Masina, Simona Materia, Stefano Ruggieri, Paolo |
author_sort |
Bianco, Elena |
title |
The role of upper ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal time scales |
title_short |
The role of upper ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal time scales |
title_full |
The role of upper ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal time scales |
title_fullStr |
The role of upper ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal time scales |
title_full_unstemmed |
The role of upper ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal time scales |
title_sort |
role of upper ocean heat content in the regional variability of arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal time scales |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1406 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00068812 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00067225/egusphere-2023-1406.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-1406/egusphere-2023-1406.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Pacific |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean laptev Pacific Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean laptev Pacific Arctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1406 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00068812 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00067225/egusphere-2023-1406.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-1406/egusphere-2023-1406.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1406 |
_version_ |
1779311128312020992 |