The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s
The global acceleration of sea-level rise (SLR) during the 20th century is now established. On the local scale, this is harder to establish as several drivers of SLR play a role, which can mask the acceleration. Here, we study the rate of SLR along the coast of the Netherlands from the average of si...
Published in: | Ocean Science |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2023
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00067603 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00066053/os-19-991-2023.pdf https://os.copernicus.org/articles/19/991/2023/os-19-991-2023.pdf |
id |
ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00067603 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00067603 2023-07-30T04:05:38+02:00 The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s Keizer, Iris Le Bars, Dewi de Valk, Cees Jüling, André van de Wal, Roderik Drijfhout, Sybren 2023-07 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00067603 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00066053/os-19-991-2023.pdf https://os.copernicus.org/articles/19/991/2023/os-19-991-2023.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Ocean Science -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2183769 -- http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/os/os.html -- 1812-0792 https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00067603 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00066053/os-19-991-2023.pdf https://os.copernicus.org/articles/19/991/2023/os-19-991-2023.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2023 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023 2023-07-09T23:19:02Z The global acceleration of sea-level rise (SLR) during the 20th century is now established. On the local scale, this is harder to establish as several drivers of SLR play a role, which can mask the acceleration. Here, we study the rate of SLR along the coast of the Netherlands from the average of six tide gauge records covering the period 1890–2021. To isolate the effects of the wind field variations and the nodal tide from the local sea-level trend, we use four generalised additive models (GAMs) which include different predictive variables. From the sea-level trend estimates, we obtain the continuous evolution of the rate of SLR and its uncertainty over the observational period. The standard error in the estimation of the rate of SLR is reduced when we account for nodal-tide effects and is reduced further when we also account for the wind effects, meaning these provide better estimates of the rate of SLR. A part of the long-term SLR is due to wind forcing related to a strengthening and northward shift of the jet stream, but this SLR contribution decelerated over the observational period. Additionally, we detect wind-forced sea-level variability on multidecadal timescales with an amplitude of around 1 cm. Using a coherence analysis, we identify both the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability as its drivers. Crucially, accounting for the nodal-tide and wind effects changes the estimated rate of SLR, unmasking an SLR acceleration that started in the 1960s. Our best-fitting GAM, which accounts for nodal and wind effects, yields a rate of SLR of about 1.72.21.3 mm yr−1 in 1900–1919 and 1.51.91.2 mm yr−1 in 1940–1959 compared to 2.93.52.4 mm yr−1 in 2000–2019 (where the lower and upper bounds denote the 5th and 95th percentiles). If we discount the nodal tide, wind and fluctuation effects and assume a constant rate of SLR, then the probability (p value) of finding a rate difference between 1940–1959 and 2000–2019 of at least our estimate is smaller than 1 %. Consistent with global ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Gam ENVELOPE(-57.955,-57.955,-61.923,-61.923) Ocean Science 19 4 991 1007 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
op_collection_id |
ftnonlinearchiv |
language |
English |
topic |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
spellingShingle |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung Keizer, Iris Le Bars, Dewi de Valk, Cees Jüling, André van de Wal, Roderik Drijfhout, Sybren The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
The global acceleration of sea-level rise (SLR) during the 20th century is now established. On the local scale, this is harder to establish as several drivers of SLR play a role, which can mask the acceleration. Here, we study the rate of SLR along the coast of the Netherlands from the average of six tide gauge records covering the period 1890–2021. To isolate the effects of the wind field variations and the nodal tide from the local sea-level trend, we use four generalised additive models (GAMs) which include different predictive variables. From the sea-level trend estimates, we obtain the continuous evolution of the rate of SLR and its uncertainty over the observational period. The standard error in the estimation of the rate of SLR is reduced when we account for nodal-tide effects and is reduced further when we also account for the wind effects, meaning these provide better estimates of the rate of SLR. A part of the long-term SLR is due to wind forcing related to a strengthening and northward shift of the jet stream, but this SLR contribution decelerated over the observational period. Additionally, we detect wind-forced sea-level variability on multidecadal timescales with an amplitude of around 1 cm. Using a coherence analysis, we identify both the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability as its drivers. Crucially, accounting for the nodal-tide and wind effects changes the estimated rate of SLR, unmasking an SLR acceleration that started in the 1960s. Our best-fitting GAM, which accounts for nodal and wind effects, yields a rate of SLR of about 1.72.21.3 mm yr−1 in 1900–1919 and 1.51.91.2 mm yr−1 in 1940–1959 compared to 2.93.52.4 mm yr−1 in 2000–2019 (where the lower and upper bounds denote the 5th and 95th percentiles). If we discount the nodal tide, wind and fluctuation effects and assume a constant rate of SLR, then the probability (p value) of finding a rate difference between 1940–1959 and 2000–2019 of at least our estimate is smaller than 1 %. Consistent with global ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Keizer, Iris Le Bars, Dewi de Valk, Cees Jüling, André van de Wal, Roderik Drijfhout, Sybren |
author_facet |
Keizer, Iris Le Bars, Dewi de Valk, Cees Jüling, André van de Wal, Roderik Drijfhout, Sybren |
author_sort |
Keizer, Iris |
title |
The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s |
title_short |
The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s |
title_full |
The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s |
title_fullStr |
The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s |
title_full_unstemmed |
The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s |
title_sort |
acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the netherlands started in the 1960s |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00067603 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00066053/os-19-991-2023.pdf https://os.copernicus.org/articles/19/991/2023/os-19-991-2023.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-57.955,-57.955,-61.923,-61.923) |
geographic |
Gam |
geographic_facet |
Gam |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
Ocean Science -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2183769 -- http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/os/os.html -- 1812-0792 https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00067603 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00066053/os-19-991-2023.pdf https://os.copernicus.org/articles/19/991/2023/os-19-991-2023.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023 |
container_title |
Ocean Science |
container_volume |
19 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
991 |
op_container_end_page |
1007 |
_version_ |
1772817701313445888 |