Projections and uncertainties of future winter windstorm damage in Europe
Winter windstorms are among the most significant natural hazards in Europe linked to fatalities and substantial economic damages. However, projections of windstorm impact in Europe under climate change are highly uncertain. This study combines climate projections from 30 general circulation models p...
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00065025 2023-05-15T17:33:46+02:00 Projections and uncertainties of future winter windstorm damage in Europe Severino, Luca G. Kropf, Chahan M. Afargan-Gerstman, Hilla Fairless, Christopher de Vries, Andries Jan Domeisen, Daniela I. V. Bresch, David N. 2023-02 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-205 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00065025 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/egusphere-2023-205/egusphere-2023-205.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-205 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00065025 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/egusphere-2023-205/egusphere-2023-205.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess CC-BY article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2023 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-205 2023-02-20T00:14:01Z Winter windstorms are among the most significant natural hazards in Europe linked to fatalities and substantial economic damages. However, projections of windstorm impact in Europe under climate change are highly uncertain. This study combines climate projections from 30 general circulation models participating in CMIP6 with the climate-risk assessment model CLIMADA to obtain projections of future change in windstorm-induced damages over Europe. We conduct an uncertainty-sensitivity analysis, and find large uncertainties in the projected changes in the damages, with climate model uncertainty being the dominant factor of uncertainty in the projections. We investigate spatial patterns of the future changes in windstorm damages and find an increase in the damages in northwestern and northern-central Europe, and a decrease over the rest of Europe, in agreement with an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track into Europe. We combine all 30 available climate models in an ensemble of opportunity approach and find evidence for an intensification of future windstorm damages, with damages with return periods of 100 years under current climate conditions becoming damages with return periods of 28 years under future SSP585 climate scenarios. Our findings demonstrate the importance of climate model uncertainty for the CMIP6 projections of windstorms in Europe, and emphasize the increasing need for risk mitigation due to extreme weather in the future. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
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English |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Severino, Luca G. Kropf, Chahan M. Afargan-Gerstman, Hilla Fairless, Christopher de Vries, Andries Jan Domeisen, Daniela I. V. Bresch, David N. Projections and uncertainties of future winter windstorm damage in Europe |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Winter windstorms are among the most significant natural hazards in Europe linked to fatalities and substantial economic damages. However, projections of windstorm impact in Europe under climate change are highly uncertain. This study combines climate projections from 30 general circulation models participating in CMIP6 with the climate-risk assessment model CLIMADA to obtain projections of future change in windstorm-induced damages over Europe. We conduct an uncertainty-sensitivity analysis, and find large uncertainties in the projected changes in the damages, with climate model uncertainty being the dominant factor of uncertainty in the projections. We investigate spatial patterns of the future changes in windstorm damages and find an increase in the damages in northwestern and northern-central Europe, and a decrease over the rest of Europe, in agreement with an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track into Europe. We combine all 30 available climate models in an ensemble of opportunity approach and find evidence for an intensification of future windstorm damages, with damages with return periods of 100 years under current climate conditions becoming damages with return periods of 28 years under future SSP585 climate scenarios. Our findings demonstrate the importance of climate model uncertainty for the CMIP6 projections of windstorms in Europe, and emphasize the increasing need for risk mitigation due to extreme weather in the future. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Severino, Luca G. Kropf, Chahan M. Afargan-Gerstman, Hilla Fairless, Christopher de Vries, Andries Jan Domeisen, Daniela I. V. Bresch, David N. |
author_facet |
Severino, Luca G. Kropf, Chahan M. Afargan-Gerstman, Hilla Fairless, Christopher de Vries, Andries Jan Domeisen, Daniela I. V. Bresch, David N. |
author_sort |
Severino, Luca G. |
title |
Projections and uncertainties of future winter windstorm damage in Europe |
title_short |
Projections and uncertainties of future winter windstorm damage in Europe |
title_full |
Projections and uncertainties of future winter windstorm damage in Europe |
title_fullStr |
Projections and uncertainties of future winter windstorm damage in Europe |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projections and uncertainties of future winter windstorm damage in Europe |
title_sort |
projections and uncertainties of future winter windstorm damage in europe |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-205 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00065025 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/egusphere-2023-205/egusphere-2023-205.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-205 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00065025 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/egusphere-2023-205/egusphere-2023-205.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-205 |
_version_ |
1766132384000901120 |