Causes of the weak emergent constraint on climate sensitivity at the Last Glacial Maximum
The use of paleoclimates to constrain the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) has seen a growing interest. In particular, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the mid-Pliocene warm period have been used in emergent-constraint approaches using simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparis...
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Copernicus Publications
2023
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00064797 2023-05-15T16:41:20+02:00 Causes of the weak emergent constraint on climate sensitivity at the Last Glacial Maximum Renoult, Martin Sagoo, Navjit Zhu, Jiang Mauritsen, Thorsten 2023-02 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-323-2023 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00064797 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00063500/cp-19-323-2023.pdf https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/19/323/2023/cp-19-323-2023.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Climate of the Past -- http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/cp/cp/published_papers.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2217985 -- 1814-9332 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-323-2023 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00064797 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00063500/cp-19-323-2023.pdf https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/19/323/2023/cp-19-323-2023.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2023 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-323-2023 2023-02-06T00:14:01Z The use of paleoclimates to constrain the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) has seen a growing interest. In particular, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the mid-Pliocene warm period have been used in emergent-constraint approaches using simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Despite lower uncertainties regarding geological proxy data for the LGM in comparison with the Pliocene, the robustness of the emergent constraint between LGM temperature and ECS is weaker at both global and regional scales. Here, we investigate the climate of the LGM in models through different PMIP generations and how various factors in the atmosphere, ocean, land surface and cryosphere contribute to the spread of the model ensemble. Certain factors have a large impact on an emergent constraint, such as state dependency in climate feedbacks or model dependency on ice sheet forcing. Other factors, such as models being out of energetic balance and sea surface temperature not responding below −1.8 ∘C in polar regions, have a limited influence. We quantify some of the contributions and find that they mostly have extratropical origins. Contrary to what has previously been suggested, from a statistical point of view, the PMIP model generations do not differ substantially. Moreover, we show that the lack of high- or low-ECS models in the ensembles critically limits the strength and reliability of the emergent constraints. Single-model ensembles may be promising tools for the future of LGM emergent constraint, as they permit a large range of ECS and reduce the noise from inter-model structural issues. Finally, we provide recommendations for a paleo-based emergent constraint and notably which paleoclimate is ideal for such an approach. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice Sheet Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Climate of the Past 19 2 323 356 |
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English |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Renoult, Martin Sagoo, Navjit Zhu, Jiang Mauritsen, Thorsten Causes of the weak emergent constraint on climate sensitivity at the Last Glacial Maximum |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
The use of paleoclimates to constrain the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) has seen a growing interest. In particular, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the mid-Pliocene warm period have been used in emergent-constraint approaches using simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Despite lower uncertainties regarding geological proxy data for the LGM in comparison with the Pliocene, the robustness of the emergent constraint between LGM temperature and ECS is weaker at both global and regional scales. Here, we investigate the climate of the LGM in models through different PMIP generations and how various factors in the atmosphere, ocean, land surface and cryosphere contribute to the spread of the model ensemble. Certain factors have a large impact on an emergent constraint, such as state dependency in climate feedbacks or model dependency on ice sheet forcing. Other factors, such as models being out of energetic balance and sea surface temperature not responding below −1.8 ∘C in polar regions, have a limited influence. We quantify some of the contributions and find that they mostly have extratropical origins. Contrary to what has previously been suggested, from a statistical point of view, the PMIP model generations do not differ substantially. Moreover, we show that the lack of high- or low-ECS models in the ensembles critically limits the strength and reliability of the emergent constraints. Single-model ensembles may be promising tools for the future of LGM emergent constraint, as they permit a large range of ECS and reduce the noise from inter-model structural issues. Finally, we provide recommendations for a paleo-based emergent constraint and notably which paleoclimate is ideal for such an approach. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Renoult, Martin Sagoo, Navjit Zhu, Jiang Mauritsen, Thorsten |
author_facet |
Renoult, Martin Sagoo, Navjit Zhu, Jiang Mauritsen, Thorsten |
author_sort |
Renoult, Martin |
title |
Causes of the weak emergent constraint on climate sensitivity at the Last Glacial Maximum |
title_short |
Causes of the weak emergent constraint on climate sensitivity at the Last Glacial Maximum |
title_full |
Causes of the weak emergent constraint on climate sensitivity at the Last Glacial Maximum |
title_fullStr |
Causes of the weak emergent constraint on climate sensitivity at the Last Glacial Maximum |
title_full_unstemmed |
Causes of the weak emergent constraint on climate sensitivity at the Last Glacial Maximum |
title_sort |
causes of the weak emergent constraint on climate sensitivity at the last glacial maximum |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-323-2023 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00064797 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00063500/cp-19-323-2023.pdf https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/19/323/2023/cp-19-323-2023.pdf |
genre |
Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
Climate of the Past -- http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/cp/cp/published_papers.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2217985 -- 1814-9332 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-323-2023 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00064797 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00063500/cp-19-323-2023.pdf https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/19/323/2023/cp-19-323-2023.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-323-2023 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
19 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
323 |
op_container_end_page |
356 |
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1766031773433593856 |