Can low-resolution CMIP6 ScenarioMIP models provide insight into future European post-tropical-cyclone risk?
Post-tropical cyclones (PTCs) can cause extensive damage across Europe through extreme winds and heavy precipitation. With increasing sea surface temperatures, tropical cyclones (TCs) may form and travel further poleward and eastward than observed historically. Recent work has suggested that the fre...
Published in: | Weather and Climate Dynamics |
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Copernicus Publications
2022
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00063635 2023-05-15T17:31:36+02:00 Can low-resolution CMIP6 ScenarioMIP models provide insight into future European post-tropical-cyclone risk? Sainsbury, Elliott Michael Schiemann, Reinhard K. H. Hodges, Kevin I. Baker, Alexander J. Shaffrey, Len C. Bhatia, Kieran T. Bourdin, Stella 2022-11 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00063635 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00062637/wcd-3-1359-2022.pdf https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/1359/2022/wcd-3-1359-2022.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Weather and Climate Dynamics -- https://www.weather-climate-dynamics.net/ -- 2698-4016 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00063635 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00062637/wcd-3-1359-2022.pdf https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/1359/2022/wcd-3-1359-2022.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2022 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022 2022-11-28T00:12:16Z Post-tropical cyclones (PTCs) can cause extensive damage across Europe through extreme winds and heavy precipitation. With increasing sea surface temperatures, tropical cyclones (TCs) may form and travel further poleward and eastward than observed historically. Recent work has suggested that the frequency of intense Europe-impacting PTCs may increase substantially in the future. Using an objective feature-tracking scheme and TC identification method, we track and identify the full life cycle of TCs in the North Atlantic in five CMIP6 climate models in the historical (1984–2014) period and in the future under the SSP5-85 scenario (2069–2099). These five models are selected based on their ability to simulate TC frequency similar to observed in the North Atlantic, although model deficiencies remain. We find no robust changes in Europe-impacting PTC frequency or intensity in the future. This is because two competing factors – a significant decrease in TC frequency of 30 %–60 % and an increase in the proportion of TCs reaching Europe – are approximately the same size. The projected increase in the proportion of TCs reaching Europe is largely driven by an increase in the likelihood of recurvature and is consistent with projected decreases in vertical wind shear and increases in potential intensity along the US East Coast in the future. The projected increased likelihood of recurvature is also associated with a shift in TC genesis away from the main development region, where model biases cause very few TCs to recurve. This study indicates that large uncertainties surround future Europe-impacting PTCs and provides a framework for evaluating PTCs in future generations of climate models. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Weather and Climate Dynamics 3 4 1359 1379 |
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Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
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ftnonlinearchiv |
language |
English |
topic |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Sainsbury, Elliott Michael Schiemann, Reinhard K. H. Hodges, Kevin I. Baker, Alexander J. Shaffrey, Len C. Bhatia, Kieran T. Bourdin, Stella Can low-resolution CMIP6 ScenarioMIP models provide insight into future European post-tropical-cyclone risk? |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Post-tropical cyclones (PTCs) can cause extensive damage across Europe through extreme winds and heavy precipitation. With increasing sea surface temperatures, tropical cyclones (TCs) may form and travel further poleward and eastward than observed historically. Recent work has suggested that the frequency of intense Europe-impacting PTCs may increase substantially in the future. Using an objective feature-tracking scheme and TC identification method, we track and identify the full life cycle of TCs in the North Atlantic in five CMIP6 climate models in the historical (1984–2014) period and in the future under the SSP5-85 scenario (2069–2099). These five models are selected based on their ability to simulate TC frequency similar to observed in the North Atlantic, although model deficiencies remain. We find no robust changes in Europe-impacting PTC frequency or intensity in the future. This is because two competing factors – a significant decrease in TC frequency of 30 %–60 % and an increase in the proportion of TCs reaching Europe – are approximately the same size. The projected increase in the proportion of TCs reaching Europe is largely driven by an increase in the likelihood of recurvature and is consistent with projected decreases in vertical wind shear and increases in potential intensity along the US East Coast in the future. The projected increased likelihood of recurvature is also associated with a shift in TC genesis away from the main development region, where model biases cause very few TCs to recurve. This study indicates that large uncertainties surround future Europe-impacting PTCs and provides a framework for evaluating PTCs in future generations of climate models. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sainsbury, Elliott Michael Schiemann, Reinhard K. H. Hodges, Kevin I. Baker, Alexander J. Shaffrey, Len C. Bhatia, Kieran T. Bourdin, Stella |
author_facet |
Sainsbury, Elliott Michael Schiemann, Reinhard K. H. Hodges, Kevin I. Baker, Alexander J. Shaffrey, Len C. Bhatia, Kieran T. Bourdin, Stella |
author_sort |
Sainsbury, Elliott Michael |
title |
Can low-resolution CMIP6 ScenarioMIP models provide insight into future European post-tropical-cyclone risk? |
title_short |
Can low-resolution CMIP6 ScenarioMIP models provide insight into future European post-tropical-cyclone risk? |
title_full |
Can low-resolution CMIP6 ScenarioMIP models provide insight into future European post-tropical-cyclone risk? |
title_fullStr |
Can low-resolution CMIP6 ScenarioMIP models provide insight into future European post-tropical-cyclone risk? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Can low-resolution CMIP6 ScenarioMIP models provide insight into future European post-tropical-cyclone risk? |
title_sort |
can low-resolution cmip6 scenariomip models provide insight into future european post-tropical-cyclone risk? |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00063635 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00062637/wcd-3-1359-2022.pdf https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/1359/2022/wcd-3-1359-2022.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
Weather and Climate Dynamics -- https://www.weather-climate-dynamics.net/ -- 2698-4016 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00063635 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00062637/wcd-3-1359-2022.pdf https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/1359/2022/wcd-3-1359-2022.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022 |
container_title |
Weather and Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
3 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1359 |
op_container_end_page |
1379 |
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1766129259923898368 |