Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations
Anthropogenic CO2 emissions cause irreversible climate change on centennial to millennial timescales, yet current mitigation efforts are insufficient to limit global warming to a level that is considered safe. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) has been suggested as an option to partially reverse climate...
Published in: | Earth System Dynamics |
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Copernicus Publications
2022
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00063614 2023-05-15T17:57:21+02:00 Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations Schwinger, Jörg Asaadi, Ali Steinert, Norman Julius Lee, Hanna 2022-11 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00063614 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00062618/esd-13-1641-2022.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/1641/2022/esd-13-1641-2022.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Earth System Dynamics -- http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/ -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2578793 -- 2190-4987 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00063614 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00062618/esd-13-1641-2022.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/1641/2022/esd-13-1641-2022.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2022 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022 2022-11-28T00:12:16Z Anthropogenic CO2 emissions cause irreversible climate change on centennial to millennial timescales, yet current mitigation efforts are insufficient to limit global warming to a level that is considered safe. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) has been suggested as an option to partially reverse climate change and to return the Earth system to a less dangerous state after a period of temperature overshoot. Whether or to what extent such partial reversal of climate change under CDR would happen is, next to socio-economic feasibility and sustainability, key to assessing CDR as a mitigation option. Here, we use a state-of-the-art Earth system model that includes a representation of permafrost carbon to investigate the reversibility of the Earth system after overshoots of different durations and magnitudes in idealized simulations. We find that atmospheric CO2 concentrations are slightly lower after an overshoot, compared to a reference simulation without overshoot, due to a near-perfect compensation of carbon losses from land by increased ocean carbon uptake during the overshoot periods. The legacy of an overshoot is, on a centennial timescale, indiscernible (within natural variability) from a reference case without overshoot for many aspects of the Earth system including global average surface temperature, marine and terrestrial productivity, strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, surface ocean pH, surface O2 concentration, and permafrost extent, except in the most extreme overshoot scenario considered in this study. Consistent with previous studies, we find irreversibility in permafrost carbon and deep ocean properties like seawater temperature, pH, and O2 concentrations. We do not find any indication of tipping points or self-reinforcing feedbacks that would put the Earth system on a significantly different trajectory after an overshoot. Hence, the effectiveness of CDR in partially reversing large-scale patterns of climate change might not be the main issue of CDR but rather the impacts and ... Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Earth System Dynamics 13 4 1641 1665 |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Schwinger, Jörg Asaadi, Ali Steinert, Norman Julius Lee, Hanna Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Anthropogenic CO2 emissions cause irreversible climate change on centennial to millennial timescales, yet current mitigation efforts are insufficient to limit global warming to a level that is considered safe. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) has been suggested as an option to partially reverse climate change and to return the Earth system to a less dangerous state after a period of temperature overshoot. Whether or to what extent such partial reversal of climate change under CDR would happen is, next to socio-economic feasibility and sustainability, key to assessing CDR as a mitigation option. Here, we use a state-of-the-art Earth system model that includes a representation of permafrost carbon to investigate the reversibility of the Earth system after overshoots of different durations and magnitudes in idealized simulations. We find that atmospheric CO2 concentrations are slightly lower after an overshoot, compared to a reference simulation without overshoot, due to a near-perfect compensation of carbon losses from land by increased ocean carbon uptake during the overshoot periods. The legacy of an overshoot is, on a centennial timescale, indiscernible (within natural variability) from a reference case without overshoot for many aspects of the Earth system including global average surface temperature, marine and terrestrial productivity, strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, surface ocean pH, surface O2 concentration, and permafrost extent, except in the most extreme overshoot scenario considered in this study. Consistent with previous studies, we find irreversibility in permafrost carbon and deep ocean properties like seawater temperature, pH, and O2 concentrations. We do not find any indication of tipping points or self-reinforcing feedbacks that would put the Earth system on a significantly different trajectory after an overshoot. Hence, the effectiveness of CDR in partially reversing large-scale patterns of climate change might not be the main issue of CDR but rather the impacts and ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Schwinger, Jörg Asaadi, Ali Steinert, Norman Julius Lee, Hanna |
author_facet |
Schwinger, Jörg Asaadi, Ali Steinert, Norman Julius Lee, Hanna |
author_sort |
Schwinger, Jörg |
title |
Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations |
title_short |
Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations |
title_full |
Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations |
title_fullStr |
Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations |
title_sort |
emit now, mitigate later? earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00063614 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00062618/esd-13-1641-2022.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/1641/2022/esd-13-1641-2022.pdf |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_relation |
Earth System Dynamics -- http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/ -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2578793 -- 2190-4987 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00063614 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00062618/esd-13-1641-2022.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/1641/2022/esd-13-1641-2022.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1641 |
op_container_end_page |
1665 |
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1766165756017377280 |