Exploring the link between austral stratospheric polar vortex anomalies and surface climate in chemistry-climate models
Extreme events in the stratospheric polar vortex can lead to changes in the tropospheric circulation and impact the surface climate on a wide range of timescales. The austral stratospheric vortex shows its largest variability in spring, and a weakened polar vortex is associated with changes in the s...
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2022
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00063258 2023-05-15T13:49:21+02:00 Exploring the link between austral stratospheric polar vortex anomalies and surface climate in chemistry-climate models Bergner, Nora Friedel, Marina Domeisen, Daniela I. V. Waugh, Darryn Chiodo, Gabriel 2022-11 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00063258 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00062362/acp-22-13915-2022.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/13915/2022/acp-22-13915-2022.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics -- http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/volumes_and_issues.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2069847 -- 1680-7324 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00063258 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00062362/acp-22-13915-2022.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/13915/2022/acp-22-13915-2022.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2022 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022 2022-11-07T00:12:05Z Extreme events in the stratospheric polar vortex can lead to changes in the tropospheric circulation and impact the surface climate on a wide range of timescales. The austral stratospheric vortex shows its largest variability in spring, and a weakened polar vortex is associated with changes in the spring to summer surface climate, including hot and dry extremes in Australia. However, the robustness and extent of the connection between polar vortex strength and surface climate on interannual timescales remain unclear. We assess this relationship by using reanalysis data and time-slice simulations from two chemistry-climate models (CCMs), building on previous work that is mainly based on observations. The CCMs show a similar downward propagation of anomalies in the polar vortex strength to the reanalysis data: a weak polar vortex is on average followed by a negative tropospheric Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in spring to summer, while a strong polar vortex is on average followed by a positive SAM. The signature in the surface climate following polar vortex weakenings is characterized by high surface pressure and warm temperature anomalies over Antarctica, the region where surface signals are most robust across all model and observational datasets. However, the tropospheric SAM response in the two CCMs considered is inconsistent with observations. In one CCM, the SAM is more negative compared to the reanalysis after weak polar vortex events, whereas in the other CCM, it is less negative. In addition, neither model reproduces all the regional changes in midlatitudes, such as the warm and dry anomalies over Australia. We find that these inconsistencies are linked to model biases in the basic state, such as the latitude of the eddy-driven jet and the persistence of the SAM. These results are largely corroborated by models that participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). Furthermore, bootstrapping of the data reveals sizable uncertainty in the magnitude of the surface signals in both models and ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Austral Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 22 21 13915 13934 |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Bergner, Nora Friedel, Marina Domeisen, Daniela I. V. Waugh, Darryn Chiodo, Gabriel Exploring the link between austral stratospheric polar vortex anomalies and surface climate in chemistry-climate models |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Extreme events in the stratospheric polar vortex can lead to changes in the tropospheric circulation and impact the surface climate on a wide range of timescales. The austral stratospheric vortex shows its largest variability in spring, and a weakened polar vortex is associated with changes in the spring to summer surface climate, including hot and dry extremes in Australia. However, the robustness and extent of the connection between polar vortex strength and surface climate on interannual timescales remain unclear. We assess this relationship by using reanalysis data and time-slice simulations from two chemistry-climate models (CCMs), building on previous work that is mainly based on observations. The CCMs show a similar downward propagation of anomalies in the polar vortex strength to the reanalysis data: a weak polar vortex is on average followed by a negative tropospheric Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in spring to summer, while a strong polar vortex is on average followed by a positive SAM. The signature in the surface climate following polar vortex weakenings is characterized by high surface pressure and warm temperature anomalies over Antarctica, the region where surface signals are most robust across all model and observational datasets. However, the tropospheric SAM response in the two CCMs considered is inconsistent with observations. In one CCM, the SAM is more negative compared to the reanalysis after weak polar vortex events, whereas in the other CCM, it is less negative. In addition, neither model reproduces all the regional changes in midlatitudes, such as the warm and dry anomalies over Australia. We find that these inconsistencies are linked to model biases in the basic state, such as the latitude of the eddy-driven jet and the persistence of the SAM. These results are largely corroborated by models that participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). Furthermore, bootstrapping of the data reveals sizable uncertainty in the magnitude of the surface signals in both models and ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bergner, Nora Friedel, Marina Domeisen, Daniela I. V. Waugh, Darryn Chiodo, Gabriel |
author_facet |
Bergner, Nora Friedel, Marina Domeisen, Daniela I. V. Waugh, Darryn Chiodo, Gabriel |
author_sort |
Bergner, Nora |
title |
Exploring the link between austral stratospheric polar vortex anomalies and surface climate in chemistry-climate models |
title_short |
Exploring the link between austral stratospheric polar vortex anomalies and surface climate in chemistry-climate models |
title_full |
Exploring the link between austral stratospheric polar vortex anomalies and surface climate in chemistry-climate models |
title_fullStr |
Exploring the link between austral stratospheric polar vortex anomalies and surface climate in chemistry-climate models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Exploring the link between austral stratospheric polar vortex anomalies and surface climate in chemistry-climate models |
title_sort |
exploring the link between austral stratospheric polar vortex anomalies and surface climate in chemistry-climate models |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00063258 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00062362/acp-22-13915-2022.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/13915/2022/acp-22-13915-2022.pdf |
geographic |
Austral |
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Austral |
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Antarc* Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica |
op_relation |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics -- http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/volumes_and_issues.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2069847 -- 1680-7324 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00063258 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00062362/acp-22-13915-2022.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/13915/2022/acp-22-13915-2022.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
21 |
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13915 |
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13934 |
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1766251243206868992 |