Improved teleconnection between Arctic sea ice and the North Atlantic Oscillation through stochastic process representation
The extent to which interannual variability in Arctic sea ice influences the mid-latitude circulation has been extensively debated. While observational data support the existence of a teleconnection between November sea ice in the Barents–Kara region and the subsequent winter North Atlantic Oscillat...
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00062324 2023-05-15T14:56:13+02:00 Improved teleconnection between Arctic sea ice and the North Atlantic Oscillation through stochastic process representation Strommen, Kristian Juricke, Stephan Cooper, Fenwick 2022-08 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-951-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00062324 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00061622/wcd-3-951-2022.pdf https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/951/2022/wcd-3-951-2022.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Weather and Climate Dynamics -- https://www.weather-climate-dynamics.net/ -- 2698-4016 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-951-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00062324 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00061622/wcd-3-951-2022.pdf https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/951/2022/wcd-3-951-2022.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2022 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-951-2022 2022-08-21T23:11:53Z The extent to which interannual variability in Arctic sea ice influences the mid-latitude circulation has been extensively debated. While observational data support the existence of a teleconnection between November sea ice in the Barents–Kara region and the subsequent winter North Atlantic Oscillation, climate models do not consistently reproduce such a link, with only very weak inter-model consensus. We show, using the EC-Earth3 climate model, that while an ensemble of coupled EC-Earth3 simulations shows no evidence of such a teleconnection, the inclusion of stochastic parameterizations to the ocean and sea ice component results in the emergence of a robust teleconnection comparable in magnitude to that observed. While the exact mechanisms causing this remain unclear, we argue that it can be accounted for by an improved ice–ocean–atmosphere coupling due to the stochastic perturbations, which aim to represent the effect of unresolved ice and ocean variability. In particular, the weak inter-model consensus may to a large extent be due to model biases in surface coupling, with stochastic parameterizations being one possible remedy. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Arctic Weather and Climate Dynamics 3 3 951 975 |
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English |
topic |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Strommen, Kristian Juricke, Stephan Cooper, Fenwick Improved teleconnection between Arctic sea ice and the North Atlantic Oscillation through stochastic process representation |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
The extent to which interannual variability in Arctic sea ice influences the mid-latitude circulation has been extensively debated. While observational data support the existence of a teleconnection between November sea ice in the Barents–Kara region and the subsequent winter North Atlantic Oscillation, climate models do not consistently reproduce such a link, with only very weak inter-model consensus. We show, using the EC-Earth3 climate model, that while an ensemble of coupled EC-Earth3 simulations shows no evidence of such a teleconnection, the inclusion of stochastic parameterizations to the ocean and sea ice component results in the emergence of a robust teleconnection comparable in magnitude to that observed. While the exact mechanisms causing this remain unclear, we argue that it can be accounted for by an improved ice–ocean–atmosphere coupling due to the stochastic perturbations, which aim to represent the effect of unresolved ice and ocean variability. In particular, the weak inter-model consensus may to a large extent be due to model biases in surface coupling, with stochastic parameterizations being one possible remedy. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Strommen, Kristian Juricke, Stephan Cooper, Fenwick |
author_facet |
Strommen, Kristian Juricke, Stephan Cooper, Fenwick |
author_sort |
Strommen, Kristian |
title |
Improved teleconnection between Arctic sea ice and the North Atlantic Oscillation through stochastic process representation |
title_short |
Improved teleconnection between Arctic sea ice and the North Atlantic Oscillation through stochastic process representation |
title_full |
Improved teleconnection between Arctic sea ice and the North Atlantic Oscillation through stochastic process representation |
title_fullStr |
Improved teleconnection between Arctic sea ice and the North Atlantic Oscillation through stochastic process representation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Improved teleconnection between Arctic sea ice and the North Atlantic Oscillation through stochastic process representation |
title_sort |
improved teleconnection between arctic sea ice and the north atlantic oscillation through stochastic process representation |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-951-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00062324 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00061622/wcd-3-951-2022.pdf https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/951/2022/wcd-3-951-2022.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_relation |
Weather and Climate Dynamics -- https://www.weather-climate-dynamics.net/ -- 2698-4016 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-951-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00062324 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00061622/wcd-3-951-2022.pdf https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/951/2022/wcd-3-951-2022.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-951-2022 |
container_title |
Weather and Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
3 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
951 |
op_container_end_page |
975 |
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1766328238977581056 |