Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton variance
Multiple studies conducted with Earth System Models suggest that anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century. Light limited regions are projected to become more productive and nutrient limited regions less productive. Anthropogenic climate change can infl...
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00062007 2023-05-15T17:34:07+02:00 Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton variance Elsworth, Geneviève W. Lovenduski, Nicole S. Krumhardt, Kristen M. Marchitto, Thomas M. Schlunegger, Sarah 2022-07 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-579 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00062007 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/egusphere-2022-579/egusphere-2022-579.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-579 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00062007 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/egusphere-2022-579/egusphere-2022-579.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess CC-BY article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2022 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-579 2022-07-31T23:11:40Z Multiple studies conducted with Earth System Models suggest that anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century. Light limited regions are projected to become more productive and nutrient limited regions less productive. Anthropogenic climate change can influence not only the mean state, but also the variance around the mean state, yet little is known about how variance in marine phytoplankton will change with time. Here, we quantify the influence of anthropogenic climate change on internal variability in marine phytoplankton biomass from 1920 to 2100 using the Community Earth System Model 1 Large Ensemble (CESM1-LE). We find a significant decrease in the internal variance of global phytoplankton carbon biomass under a high emission (RCP8.5) scenario, with heterogeneous regional trends. Decreasing variance in biomass is most apparent in the subpolar North Atlantic and North Pacific. In these high-latitude regions, zooplankton grazing acts as a top-down control in reducing internal variance in phytoplankton biomass, with bottom-up controls (e.g., light, nutrients) having only a small effect on biomass variance. Grazing-driven declines in phytoplankton variance are also apparent in the biogeochemically critical regions of the Southern Ocean and the Equatorial Pacific. Our results suggest that climate mitigation and adaptation efforts that account for marine phytoplankton changes (e.g., fisheries) should also consider changes in phytoplankton and zooplankton variance driven by anthropogenic warming, particularly on regional scales. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Southern Ocean Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Pacific Southern Ocean |
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English |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Elsworth, Geneviève W. Lovenduski, Nicole S. Krumhardt, Kristen M. Marchitto, Thomas M. Schlunegger, Sarah Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton variance |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Multiple studies conducted with Earth System Models suggest that anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century. Light limited regions are projected to become more productive and nutrient limited regions less productive. Anthropogenic climate change can influence not only the mean state, but also the variance around the mean state, yet little is known about how variance in marine phytoplankton will change with time. Here, we quantify the influence of anthropogenic climate change on internal variability in marine phytoplankton biomass from 1920 to 2100 using the Community Earth System Model 1 Large Ensemble (CESM1-LE). We find a significant decrease in the internal variance of global phytoplankton carbon biomass under a high emission (RCP8.5) scenario, with heterogeneous regional trends. Decreasing variance in biomass is most apparent in the subpolar North Atlantic and North Pacific. In these high-latitude regions, zooplankton grazing acts as a top-down control in reducing internal variance in phytoplankton biomass, with bottom-up controls (e.g., light, nutrients) having only a small effect on biomass variance. Grazing-driven declines in phytoplankton variance are also apparent in the biogeochemically critical regions of the Southern Ocean and the Equatorial Pacific. Our results suggest that climate mitigation and adaptation efforts that account for marine phytoplankton changes (e.g., fisheries) should also consider changes in phytoplankton and zooplankton variance driven by anthropogenic warming, particularly on regional scales. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Elsworth, Geneviève W. Lovenduski, Nicole S. Krumhardt, Kristen M. Marchitto, Thomas M. Schlunegger, Sarah |
author_facet |
Elsworth, Geneviève W. Lovenduski, Nicole S. Krumhardt, Kristen M. Marchitto, Thomas M. Schlunegger, Sarah |
author_sort |
Elsworth, Geneviève W. |
title |
Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton variance |
title_short |
Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton variance |
title_full |
Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton variance |
title_fullStr |
Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton variance |
title_full_unstemmed |
Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton variance |
title_sort |
anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton variance |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-579 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00062007 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/egusphere-2022-579/egusphere-2022-579.pdf |
geographic |
Pacific Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Pacific Southern Ocean |
genre |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-579 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00062007 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/egusphere-2022-579/egusphere-2022-579.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-579 |
_version_ |
1766132861659774976 |