Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts
Major disruptions of the winter season, high-latitude stratospheric polar vortices can result in stratospheric anomalies that persist for months. These sudden stratospheric warming events are recognized as an important potential source of forecast skill for surface climate on subseasonal to seasonal...
Published in: | Geoscientific Model Development |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2022
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00061737 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00061143/gmd-15-5073-2022.pdf https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/5073/2022/gmd-15-5073-2022.pdf |
id |
ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00061737 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00061737 2023-05-15T13:49:21+02:00 Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts Hitchcock, Peter Butler, Amy Charlton-Perez, Andrew Garfinkel, Chaim I. Stockdale, Tim Anstey, James Mitchell, Dann Domeisen, Daniela I. V. Wu, Tongwen Lu, Yixiong Mastrangelo, Daniele Malguzzi, Piero Lin, Hai Muncaster, Ryan Merryfield, Bill Sigmond, Michael Xiang, Baoqiang Jia, Liwei Hyun, Yu-Kyung Oh, Jiyoung Specq, Damien Simpson, Isla R. Richter, Jadwiga H. Barton, Cory Knight, Jeff Lim, Eun-Pa Hendon, Harry 2022-07 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00061737 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00061143/gmd-15-5073-2022.pdf https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/5073/2022/gmd-15-5073-2022.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Geoscientific Model Development -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2456725 -- http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/ -- 1991-9603 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00061737 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00061143/gmd-15-5073-2022.pdf https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/5073/2022/gmd-15-5073-2022.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2022 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 2022-07-10T23:11:45Z Major disruptions of the winter season, high-latitude stratospheric polar vortices can result in stratospheric anomalies that persist for months. These sudden stratospheric warming events are recognized as an important potential source of forecast skill for surface climate on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Realizing this skill in operational subseasonal forecast models remains a challenge, as models must capture both the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortices in addition to their coupling to the troposphere. The processes involved in this coupling remain a topic of open research. We present here the Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI) project. SNAPSI is a new model intercomparison protocol designed to study the role of the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex disturbances for surface predictability in subseasonal to seasonal forecast models. Based on a set of controlled, subseasonal ensemble forecasts of three recent events, the protocol aims to address four main scientific goals. First, to quantify the impact of improved stratospheric forecasts on near-surface forecast skill. Second, to attribute specific extreme events to stratospheric variability. Third, to assess the mechanisms by which the stratosphere influences the troposphere in the forecast models. Fourth, to investigate the wave processes that lead to the stratospheric anomalies themselves. Although not a primary focus, the experiments are furthermore expected to shed light on coupling between the tropical stratosphere and troposphere. The output requested will allow for a more detailed, process-based community analysis than has been possible with existing databases of subseasonal forecasts. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Antarctic Arctic Geoscientific Model Development 15 13 5073 5092 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
op_collection_id |
ftnonlinearchiv |
language |
English |
topic |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
spellingShingle |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung Hitchcock, Peter Butler, Amy Charlton-Perez, Andrew Garfinkel, Chaim I. Stockdale, Tim Anstey, James Mitchell, Dann Domeisen, Daniela I. V. Wu, Tongwen Lu, Yixiong Mastrangelo, Daniele Malguzzi, Piero Lin, Hai Muncaster, Ryan Merryfield, Bill Sigmond, Michael Xiang, Baoqiang Jia, Liwei Hyun, Yu-Kyung Oh, Jiyoung Specq, Damien Simpson, Isla R. Richter, Jadwiga H. Barton, Cory Knight, Jeff Lim, Eun-Pa Hendon, Harry Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Major disruptions of the winter season, high-latitude stratospheric polar vortices can result in stratospheric anomalies that persist for months. These sudden stratospheric warming events are recognized as an important potential source of forecast skill for surface climate on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Realizing this skill in operational subseasonal forecast models remains a challenge, as models must capture both the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortices in addition to their coupling to the troposphere. The processes involved in this coupling remain a topic of open research. We present here the Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI) project. SNAPSI is a new model intercomparison protocol designed to study the role of the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex disturbances for surface predictability in subseasonal to seasonal forecast models. Based on a set of controlled, subseasonal ensemble forecasts of three recent events, the protocol aims to address four main scientific goals. First, to quantify the impact of improved stratospheric forecasts on near-surface forecast skill. Second, to attribute specific extreme events to stratospheric variability. Third, to assess the mechanisms by which the stratosphere influences the troposphere in the forecast models. Fourth, to investigate the wave processes that lead to the stratospheric anomalies themselves. Although not a primary focus, the experiments are furthermore expected to shed light on coupling between the tropical stratosphere and troposphere. The output requested will allow for a more detailed, process-based community analysis than has been possible with existing databases of subseasonal forecasts. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hitchcock, Peter Butler, Amy Charlton-Perez, Andrew Garfinkel, Chaim I. Stockdale, Tim Anstey, James Mitchell, Dann Domeisen, Daniela I. V. Wu, Tongwen Lu, Yixiong Mastrangelo, Daniele Malguzzi, Piero Lin, Hai Muncaster, Ryan Merryfield, Bill Sigmond, Michael Xiang, Baoqiang Jia, Liwei Hyun, Yu-Kyung Oh, Jiyoung Specq, Damien Simpson, Isla R. Richter, Jadwiga H. Barton, Cory Knight, Jeff Lim, Eun-Pa Hendon, Harry |
author_facet |
Hitchcock, Peter Butler, Amy Charlton-Perez, Andrew Garfinkel, Chaim I. Stockdale, Tim Anstey, James Mitchell, Dann Domeisen, Daniela I. V. Wu, Tongwen Lu, Yixiong Mastrangelo, Daniele Malguzzi, Piero Lin, Hai Muncaster, Ryan Merryfield, Bill Sigmond, Michael Xiang, Baoqiang Jia, Liwei Hyun, Yu-Kyung Oh, Jiyoung Specq, Damien Simpson, Isla R. Richter, Jadwiga H. Barton, Cory Knight, Jeff Lim, Eun-Pa Hendon, Harry |
author_sort |
Hitchcock, Peter |
title |
Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
title_short |
Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
title_full |
Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
title_fullStr |
Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
title_sort |
stratospheric nudging and predictable surface impacts (snapsi): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00061737 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00061143/gmd-15-5073-2022.pdf https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/5073/2022/gmd-15-5073-2022.pdf |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic |
op_relation |
Geoscientific Model Development -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2456725 -- http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/ -- 1991-9603 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00061737 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00061143/gmd-15-5073-2022.pdf https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/5073/2022/gmd-15-5073-2022.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 |
container_title |
Geoscientific Model Development |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
13 |
container_start_page |
5073 |
op_container_end_page |
5092 |
_version_ |
1766251230843109376 |