Climate bifurcations in a Schwarzschild equation model of the Arctic atmosphere
A column model of the Arctic atmosphere is developed including the nonlinear positive feedback responses of surface albedo and water vapour to temperature. The atmosphere is treated as a grey gas and the flux of longwave radiation is governed by the two-stream Schwarzschild equations. Water vapour c...
Published in: | Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00061528 2023-05-15T13:11:00+02:00 Climate bifurcations in a Schwarzschild equation model of the Arctic atmosphere Kypke, Kolja L. Langford, William F. Lewis, Gregory M. Willms, Allan R. 2022-06 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-219-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00061528 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00060984/npg-29-219-2022.pdf https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/29/219/2022/npg-29-219-2022.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2078085 -- http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/ -- http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/npg/npg.htm -- 1607-7946 https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-219-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00061528 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00060984/npg-29-219-2022.pdf https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/29/219/2022/npg-29-219-2022.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2022 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-219-2022 2022-06-19T23:11:41Z A column model of the Arctic atmosphere is developed including the nonlinear positive feedback responses of surface albedo and water vapour to temperature. The atmosphere is treated as a grey gas and the flux of longwave radiation is governed by the two-stream Schwarzschild equations. Water vapour concentration is determined by the Clausius–Clapeyron equation. Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are used to model carbon dioxide concentrations into the future. The resulting 9D two-point boundary value problem is solved under various RCPs and the solutions analysed. The model predicts that under the highest carbon pathway, the Arctic climate will undergo an irreversible bifurcation to a warm steady state, which would correspond to annually ice-free conditions. Under the lowest carbon pathway, corresponding to very aggressive carbon emission reductions, the model exhibits only a mild increase in Arctic temperatures. Under the two intermediate carbon pathways, temperatures increase more substantially, and the system enters a region of bistability where external perturbations could possibly cause an irreversible switch to a warm, ice-free state. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Arctic Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 29 2 219 239 |
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English |
topic |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Kypke, Kolja L. Langford, William F. Lewis, Gregory M. Willms, Allan R. Climate bifurcations in a Schwarzschild equation model of the Arctic atmosphere |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
A column model of the Arctic atmosphere is developed including the nonlinear positive feedback responses of surface albedo and water vapour to temperature. The atmosphere is treated as a grey gas and the flux of longwave radiation is governed by the two-stream Schwarzschild equations. Water vapour concentration is determined by the Clausius–Clapeyron equation. Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are used to model carbon dioxide concentrations into the future. The resulting 9D two-point boundary value problem is solved under various RCPs and the solutions analysed. The model predicts that under the highest carbon pathway, the Arctic climate will undergo an irreversible bifurcation to a warm steady state, which would correspond to annually ice-free conditions. Under the lowest carbon pathway, corresponding to very aggressive carbon emission reductions, the model exhibits only a mild increase in Arctic temperatures. Under the two intermediate carbon pathways, temperatures increase more substantially, and the system enters a region of bistability where external perturbations could possibly cause an irreversible switch to a warm, ice-free state. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kypke, Kolja L. Langford, William F. Lewis, Gregory M. Willms, Allan R. |
author_facet |
Kypke, Kolja L. Langford, William F. Lewis, Gregory M. Willms, Allan R. |
author_sort |
Kypke, Kolja L. |
title |
Climate bifurcations in a Schwarzschild equation model of the Arctic atmosphere |
title_short |
Climate bifurcations in a Schwarzschild equation model of the Arctic atmosphere |
title_full |
Climate bifurcations in a Schwarzschild equation model of the Arctic atmosphere |
title_fullStr |
Climate bifurcations in a Schwarzschild equation model of the Arctic atmosphere |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate bifurcations in a Schwarzschild equation model of the Arctic atmosphere |
title_sort |
climate bifurcations in a schwarzschild equation model of the arctic atmosphere |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-219-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00061528 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00060984/npg-29-219-2022.pdf https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/29/219/2022/npg-29-219-2022.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
albedo Arctic |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic |
op_relation |
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2078085 -- http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/ -- http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/npg/npg.htm -- 1607-7946 https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-219-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00061528 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00060984/npg-29-219-2022.pdf https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/29/219/2022/npg-29-219-2022.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-219-2022 |
container_title |
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
container_volume |
29 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
219 |
op_container_end_page |
239 |
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1766245565374398464 |