Modelling the mass budget and future evolution of Tunabreen, central Spitsbergen
The 26 km long tidewater glacier Tunabreen is the most frequently surging glacier in Svalbard, with four documented surges in the past 100 years. We model the evolution of this glacier with a minimal glacier model (MGM), in which ice mechanics, calving, and surging are parameterized. The model geome...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Copernicus Publications
2022
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00061250 2023-05-15T16:22:11+02:00 Modelling the mass budget and future evolution of Tunabreen, central Spitsbergen Oerlemans, Johannes Kohler, Jack Luckman, Adrian 2022-06 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2115-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00061250 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00060737/tc-16-2115-2022.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/2115/2022/tc-16-2115-2022.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2115-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00061250 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00060737/tc-16-2115-2022.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/2115/2022/tc-16-2115-2022.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2022 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2115-2022 2022-06-05T23:11:42Z The 26 km long tidewater glacier Tunabreen is the most frequently surging glacier in Svalbard, with four documented surges in the past 100 years. We model the evolution of this glacier with a minimal glacier model (MGM), in which ice mechanics, calving, and surging are parameterized. The model geometry consists of a flow band to which three tributaries supply mass. The calving rate is set to the mean observed value for the period 2012–2019 and kept constant. For the past 120 years, a smooth equilibrium line altitude (ELA) history is reconstructed by finding the best possible match between observed and simulated glacier length. There is a modest correlation between this reconstructed ELA history and an ELA history based on meteorological observations from Longyearbyen. Runs with and without surging show that the effect of surging on the long-term glacier evolution is limited. Due to the low surface slope and associated strong height–mass-balance feedback, Tunabreen is very sensitive to changes in the ELA. For a constant future ELA equal to the reconstructed value for 2020, the glacier front will retreat by 8 km during the coming 100 years. For an increase in the ELA of 2 m a−1, the retreat is projected to be 13 km, and Tunabreen becomes a land-terminating glacier around 2100. The calving parameter is an important quantity: increasing its value by 50 % has about the same effect as a 35 m increase in the ELA, with the corresponding equilibrium glacier length being 17.5 km (as compared to 25.8 km in the reference state). Response times vary from 150 to 400 years, depending on the forcing and on the state of the glacier (tidewater or land-terminating). Article in Journal/Newspaper glacier Longyearbyen Svalbard The Cryosphere Tidewater Spitsbergen Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Ela ENVELOPE(9.642,9.642,63.170,63.170) Longyearbyen Svalbard Tunabreen ENVELOPE(17.387,17.387,78.461,78.461) The Cryosphere 16 5 2115 2126 |
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Open Polar |
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Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
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ftnonlinearchiv |
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English |
topic |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
spellingShingle |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung Oerlemans, Johannes Kohler, Jack Luckman, Adrian Modelling the mass budget and future evolution of Tunabreen, central Spitsbergen |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
The 26 km long tidewater glacier Tunabreen is the most frequently surging glacier in Svalbard, with four documented surges in the past 100 years. We model the evolution of this glacier with a minimal glacier model (MGM), in which ice mechanics, calving, and surging are parameterized. The model geometry consists of a flow band to which three tributaries supply mass. The calving rate is set to the mean observed value for the period 2012–2019 and kept constant. For the past 120 years, a smooth equilibrium line altitude (ELA) history is reconstructed by finding the best possible match between observed and simulated glacier length. There is a modest correlation between this reconstructed ELA history and an ELA history based on meteorological observations from Longyearbyen. Runs with and without surging show that the effect of surging on the long-term glacier evolution is limited. Due to the low surface slope and associated strong height–mass-balance feedback, Tunabreen is very sensitive to changes in the ELA. For a constant future ELA equal to the reconstructed value for 2020, the glacier front will retreat by 8 km during the coming 100 years. For an increase in the ELA of 2 m a−1, the retreat is projected to be 13 km, and Tunabreen becomes a land-terminating glacier around 2100. The calving parameter is an important quantity: increasing its value by 50 % has about the same effect as a 35 m increase in the ELA, with the corresponding equilibrium glacier length being 17.5 km (as compared to 25.8 km in the reference state). Response times vary from 150 to 400 years, depending on the forcing and on the state of the glacier (tidewater or land-terminating). |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Oerlemans, Johannes Kohler, Jack Luckman, Adrian |
author_facet |
Oerlemans, Johannes Kohler, Jack Luckman, Adrian |
author_sort |
Oerlemans, Johannes |
title |
Modelling the mass budget and future evolution of Tunabreen, central Spitsbergen |
title_short |
Modelling the mass budget and future evolution of Tunabreen, central Spitsbergen |
title_full |
Modelling the mass budget and future evolution of Tunabreen, central Spitsbergen |
title_fullStr |
Modelling the mass budget and future evolution of Tunabreen, central Spitsbergen |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling the mass budget and future evolution of Tunabreen, central Spitsbergen |
title_sort |
modelling the mass budget and future evolution of tunabreen, central spitsbergen |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2115-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00061250 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00060737/tc-16-2115-2022.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/2115/2022/tc-16-2115-2022.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(9.642,9.642,63.170,63.170) ENVELOPE(17.387,17.387,78.461,78.461) |
geographic |
Ela Longyearbyen Svalbard Tunabreen |
geographic_facet |
Ela Longyearbyen Svalbard Tunabreen |
genre |
glacier Longyearbyen Svalbard The Cryosphere Tidewater Spitsbergen |
genre_facet |
glacier Longyearbyen Svalbard The Cryosphere Tidewater Spitsbergen |
op_relation |
The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2115-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00061250 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00060737/tc-16-2115-2022.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/2115/2022/tc-16-2115-2022.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2115-2022 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
2115 |
op_container_end_page |
2126 |
_version_ |
1766010161100488704 |