Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100
The Baltic Sea region is very sensitive to climate change; it is a region with spatially varying climate and diverse ecosystems, but it is also under pressure due to a high population in large parts of the area. Climate change impacts could easily exacerbate other anthropogenic stressors such as bio...
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00059986 2023-05-15T18:18:35+02:00 Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100 Christensen, Ole Bøssing Kjellström, Erik Dieterich, Christian Gröger, Matthias Meier, Hans Eberhard Markus 2022-01 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00059986 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00059635/esd-13-133-2022.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/133/2022/esd-13-133-2022.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Earth System Dynamics -- http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/ -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2578793 -- 2190-4987 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00059986 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00059635/esd-13-133-2022.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/133/2022/esd-13-133-2022.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2022 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022 2022-02-08T22:32:20Z The Baltic Sea region is very sensitive to climate change; it is a region with spatially varying climate and diverse ecosystems, but it is also under pressure due to a high population in large parts of the area. Climate change impacts could easily exacerbate other anthropogenic stressors such as biodiversity stress from society and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea considerably. Therefore, there has been a focus on estimations of future climate change and its impacts in recent research. In this overview paper, we will concentrate on a presentation of recent climate projections from 12.5 km horizontal resolution atmosphere-only regional climate models from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment – European domain (EURO-CORDEX). Comparison will also be done with corresponding prior results as well as with coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate models. The recent regional climate model projections strengthen the conclusions from previous assessments. This includes a strong warming, in particular in the north in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase in the whole region apart from the southern half during summer. Consequently, the new results lend more credibility to estimates of uncertainties and robust features of future climate change. Furthermore, the larger number of scenarios gives opportunities to better address impacts of mitigation measures. In simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean model, the climate change signal is locally modified relative to the corresponding stand-alone atmosphere regional climate model. Differences are largest in areas where the coupled system arrives at different sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice conditions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Earth System Dynamics 13 1 133 157 |
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Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
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English |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Christensen, Ole Bøssing Kjellström, Erik Dieterich, Christian Gröger, Matthias Meier, Hans Eberhard Markus Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100 |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
The Baltic Sea region is very sensitive to climate change; it is a region with spatially varying climate and diverse ecosystems, but it is also under pressure due to a high population in large parts of the area. Climate change impacts could easily exacerbate other anthropogenic stressors such as biodiversity stress from society and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea considerably. Therefore, there has been a focus on estimations of future climate change and its impacts in recent research. In this overview paper, we will concentrate on a presentation of recent climate projections from 12.5 km horizontal resolution atmosphere-only regional climate models from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment – European domain (EURO-CORDEX). Comparison will also be done with corresponding prior results as well as with coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate models. The recent regional climate model projections strengthen the conclusions from previous assessments. This includes a strong warming, in particular in the north in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase in the whole region apart from the southern half during summer. Consequently, the new results lend more credibility to estimates of uncertainties and robust features of future climate change. Furthermore, the larger number of scenarios gives opportunities to better address impacts of mitigation measures. In simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean model, the climate change signal is locally modified relative to the corresponding stand-alone atmosphere regional climate model. Differences are largest in areas where the coupled system arrives at different sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice conditions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Christensen, Ole Bøssing Kjellström, Erik Dieterich, Christian Gröger, Matthias Meier, Hans Eberhard Markus |
author_facet |
Christensen, Ole Bøssing Kjellström, Erik Dieterich, Christian Gröger, Matthias Meier, Hans Eberhard Markus |
author_sort |
Christensen, Ole Bøssing |
title |
Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100 |
title_short |
Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100 |
title_full |
Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100 |
title_fullStr |
Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100 |
title_sort |
atmospheric regional climate projections for the baltic sea region until 2100 |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00059986 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00059635/esd-13-133-2022.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/133/2022/esd-13-133-2022.pdf |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_relation |
Earth System Dynamics -- http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/ -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2578793 -- 2190-4987 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00059986 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00059635/esd-13-133-2022.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/133/2022/esd-13-133-2022.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
133 |
op_container_end_page |
157 |
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1766195211650727936 |