Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic
The retreat of sea ice has been found to be very significant in the Arctic under global warming. It is projected to continue and will have great impacts on navigation. Perspectives on the changes in sea ice and navigability are crucial to the circulation pattern and future of the Arctic. In this inv...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00059161 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00058769/tc-15-5473-2021.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/5473/2021/tc-15-5473-2021.pdf |
id |
ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00059161 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00059161 2024-09-09T19:20:28+00:00 Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic Chen, Jinlei Kang, Shichang Du, Wentao Guo, Junming Xu, Min Zhang, Yulan Zhong, Xinyue Zhang, Wei Chen, Jizu 2021-12 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00059161 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00058769/tc-15-5473-2021.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/5473/2021/tc-15-5473-2021.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00059161 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00058769/tc-15-5473-2021.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/5473/2021/tc-15-5473-2021.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2021 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021 2024-06-26T04:36:34Z The retreat of sea ice has been found to be very significant in the Arctic under global warming. It is projected to continue and will have great impacts on navigation. Perspectives on the changes in sea ice and navigability are crucial to the circulation pattern and future of the Arctic. In this investigation, the decadal changes in sea ice parameters were evaluated by the multi-model from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6, and Arctic navigability was assessed under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and two vessel classes with the Arctic transportation accessibility model. The sea ice extent shows a high possibility of decreasing along SSP5-8.5 under current emissions and climate change. The decadal rate of decreasing sea ice extent will increase in March but decrease in September until 2060, when the oldest ice will have completely disappeared and the sea ice will reach an irreversible tipping point. Sea ice thickness is expected to decrease and transit in certain parts, declining by −0.22 m per decade after September 2060. Both the sea ice concentration and volume will thoroughly decline at decreasing decadal rates, with a greater decrease in volume in March than in September. Open water ships will be able to cross the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage between August and October during the period from 2045 to 2055, with a maximum navigable percentage in September. The time for Polar Class 6 (PC6) ships will shift to October–December during the period from 2021 to 2030, with a maximum navigable percentage in October. In addition, the central passage will be open for PC6 ships between September and October during 2021–2030. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Global warming Northern Sea Route Northwest passage Sea ice The Cryosphere Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Arctic Northwest Passage The Cryosphere 15 12 5473 5482 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
op_collection_id |
ftnonlinearchiv |
language |
English |
topic |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
spellingShingle |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung Chen, Jinlei Kang, Shichang Du, Wentao Guo, Junming Xu, Min Zhang, Yulan Zhong, Xinyue Zhang, Wei Chen, Jizu Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
The retreat of sea ice has been found to be very significant in the Arctic under global warming. It is projected to continue and will have great impacts on navigation. Perspectives on the changes in sea ice and navigability are crucial to the circulation pattern and future of the Arctic. In this investigation, the decadal changes in sea ice parameters were evaluated by the multi-model from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6, and Arctic navigability was assessed under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and two vessel classes with the Arctic transportation accessibility model. The sea ice extent shows a high possibility of decreasing along SSP5-8.5 under current emissions and climate change. The decadal rate of decreasing sea ice extent will increase in March but decrease in September until 2060, when the oldest ice will have completely disappeared and the sea ice will reach an irreversible tipping point. Sea ice thickness is expected to decrease and transit in certain parts, declining by −0.22 m per decade after September 2060. Both the sea ice concentration and volume will thoroughly decline at decreasing decadal rates, with a greater decrease in volume in March than in September. Open water ships will be able to cross the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage between August and October during the period from 2045 to 2055, with a maximum navigable percentage in September. The time for Polar Class 6 (PC6) ships will shift to October–December during the period from 2021 to 2030, with a maximum navigable percentage in October. In addition, the central passage will be open for PC6 ships between September and October during 2021–2030. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chen, Jinlei Kang, Shichang Du, Wentao Guo, Junming Xu, Min Zhang, Yulan Zhong, Xinyue Zhang, Wei Chen, Jizu |
author_facet |
Chen, Jinlei Kang, Shichang Du, Wentao Guo, Junming Xu, Min Zhang, Yulan Zhong, Xinyue Zhang, Wei Chen, Jizu |
author_sort |
Chen, Jinlei |
title |
Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic |
title_short |
Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic |
title_full |
Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic |
title_fullStr |
Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic |
title_sort |
perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the arctic |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00059161 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00058769/tc-15-5473-2021.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/5473/2021/tc-15-5473-2021.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Northwest Passage |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Northwest Passage |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Global warming Northern Sea Route Northwest passage Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Global warming Northern Sea Route Northwest passage Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_relation |
The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00059161 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00058769/tc-15-5473-2021.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/5473/2021/tc-15-5473-2021.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
5473 |
op_container_end_page |
5482 |
_version_ |
1809760616866381824 |