Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner–Ronne basin, Antarctica
The future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in response to climate warming is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in estimates of future changes in global mean sea level (ΔGMSL). Mass loss is currently concentrated in regions of warm circumpolar deep water, but it is unclear how ice shelves currentl...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2021
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00058335 2023-05-15T13:37:33+02:00 Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner–Ronne basin, Antarctica Hill, Emily A. Rosier, Sebastian H. R. Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Collins, Matthew 2021-10 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4675-2021 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00058335 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00057985/tc-15-4675-2021.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/4675/2021/tc-15-4675-2021.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4675-2021 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00058335 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00057985/tc-15-4675-2021.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/4675/2021/tc-15-4675-2021.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2021 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4675-2021 2022-02-08T22:33:06Z The future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in response to climate warming is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in estimates of future changes in global mean sea level (ΔGMSL). Mass loss is currently concentrated in regions of warm circumpolar deep water, but it is unclear how ice shelves currently surrounded by relatively cold ocean waters will respond to climatic changes in the future. Studies suggest that warm water could flush the Filchner–Ronne (FR) ice shelf cavity during the 21st century, but the inland ice sheet response to a drastic increase in ice shelf melt rates is poorly known. Here, we use an ice flow model and uncertainty quantification approach to project the GMSL contribution of the FR basin under RCP emissions scenarios, and we assess the forward propagation and proportional contribution of uncertainties in model parameters (related to ice dynamics and atmospheric/oceanic forcing) on these projections. Our probabilistic projections, derived from an extensive sample of the parameter space using a surrogate model, reveal that the FR basin is unlikely to contribute positively to sea level rise by the 23rd century. This is primarily due to the mitigating effect of increased accumulation with warming, which is capable of suppressing ice loss associated with ocean-driven increases in sub-shelf melt. Mass gain (negative ΔGMSL) from the FR basin increases with warming, but uncertainties in these projections also become larger. In the highest emission scenario RCP8.5, ΔGMSL is likely to range from −103 to 26 mm, and this large spread can be apportioned predominantly to uncertainties in parameters driving increases in precipitation (30 %) and sub-shelf melting (44 %). There is potential, within the bounds of our input parameter space, for major collapse and retreat of ice streams feeding the FR ice shelf, and a substantial positive contribution to GMSL (up to approx. 300 mm), but we consider such a scenario to be very unlikely. Adopting uncertainty quantification techniques in future studies will help to provide robust estimates of potential sea level rise and further identify target areas for constraining projections. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Antarctic Ronne Basin ENVELOPE(-58.000,-58.000,-74.000,-74.000) The Antarctic The Cryosphere 15 10 4675 4702 |
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Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
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English |
topic |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
spellingShingle |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung Hill, Emily A. Rosier, Sebastian H. R. Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Collins, Matthew Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner–Ronne basin, Antarctica |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
The future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in response to climate warming is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in estimates of future changes in global mean sea level (ΔGMSL). Mass loss is currently concentrated in regions of warm circumpolar deep water, but it is unclear how ice shelves currently surrounded by relatively cold ocean waters will respond to climatic changes in the future. Studies suggest that warm water could flush the Filchner–Ronne (FR) ice shelf cavity during the 21st century, but the inland ice sheet response to a drastic increase in ice shelf melt rates is poorly known. Here, we use an ice flow model and uncertainty quantification approach to project the GMSL contribution of the FR basin under RCP emissions scenarios, and we assess the forward propagation and proportional contribution of uncertainties in model parameters (related to ice dynamics and atmospheric/oceanic forcing) on these projections. Our probabilistic projections, derived from an extensive sample of the parameter space using a surrogate model, reveal that the FR basin is unlikely to contribute positively to sea level rise by the 23rd century. This is primarily due to the mitigating effect of increased accumulation with warming, which is capable of suppressing ice loss associated with ocean-driven increases in sub-shelf melt. Mass gain (negative ΔGMSL) from the FR basin increases with warming, but uncertainties in these projections also become larger. In the highest emission scenario RCP8.5, ΔGMSL is likely to range from −103 to 26 mm, and this large spread can be apportioned predominantly to uncertainties in parameters driving increases in precipitation (30 %) and sub-shelf melting (44 %). There is potential, within the bounds of our input parameter space, for major collapse and retreat of ice streams feeding the FR ice shelf, and a substantial positive contribution to GMSL (up to approx. 300 mm), but we consider such a scenario to be very unlikely. Adopting uncertainty quantification techniques in future studies will help to provide robust estimates of potential sea level rise and further identify target areas for constraining projections. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hill, Emily A. Rosier, Sebastian H. R. Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Collins, Matthew |
author_facet |
Hill, Emily A. Rosier, Sebastian H. R. Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Collins, Matthew |
author_sort |
Hill, Emily A. |
title |
Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner–Ronne basin, Antarctica |
title_short |
Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner–Ronne basin, Antarctica |
title_full |
Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner–Ronne basin, Antarctica |
title_fullStr |
Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner–Ronne basin, Antarctica |
title_full_unstemmed |
Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner–Ronne basin, Antarctica |
title_sort |
quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the filchner–ronne basin, antarctica |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4675-2021 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00058335 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00057985/tc-15-4675-2021.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/4675/2021/tc-15-4675-2021.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-58.000,-58.000,-74.000,-74.000) |
geographic |
Antarctic Ronne Basin The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Ronne Basin The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
op_relation |
The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4675-2021 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00058335 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00057985/tc-15-4675-2021.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/4675/2021/tc-15-4675-2021.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4675-2021 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
4675 |
op_container_end_page |
4702 |
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1766093977611665408 |