Large ensemble climate model simulations: introduction, overview, and future prospects for utilising multiple types of large ensemble
Single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) are valuable tools that can be used to investigate the climate system. SMILEs allow scientists to quantify and separate the internal variability of the climate system and its response to external forcing, with different types of SMILEs appropri...
Published in: | Earth System Dynamics |
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Copernicus Publications
2021
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00056353 2024-09-15T18:24:17+00:00 Large ensemble climate model simulations: introduction, overview, and future prospects for utilising multiple types of large ensemble Maher, Nicola Milinski, Sebastian Ludwig, Ralf 2021-04 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-401-2021 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00056353 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00056004/esd-12-401-2021.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/401/2021/esd-12-401-2021.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Earth System Dynamics -- http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/ -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2578793 -- 2190-4987 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-401-2021 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00056353 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00056004/esd-12-401-2021.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/401/2021/esd-12-401-2021.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2021 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-401-2021 2024-06-26T04:40:00Z Single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) are valuable tools that can be used to investigate the climate system. SMILEs allow scientists to quantify and separate the internal variability of the climate system and its response to external forcing, with different types of SMILEs appropriate to answer different scientific questions. In this editorial we first provide an introduction to SMILEs and an overview of the studies in the special issue “Large Ensemble Climate Model Simulations: Exploring Natural Variability, Change Signals and Impacts”. These studies analyse a range of different types of SMILEs including global climate models (GCMs), regionally downscaled climate models (RCMs), a hydrological model with input from a RCM SMILE, a SMILE with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) built for event attribution, a SMILE that assimilates observed data, and an initialised regional model. These studies provide novel methods, that can be used with SMILEs. The methods published in this issue include a snapshot empirical orthogonal function analysis used to investigate El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnections; the partitioning of future uncertainty into model differences, internal variability, and scenario choices; a weighting scheme for multi-model ensembles that can incorporate SMILEs; and a method to identify the required ensemble size for any given problem. Studies in this special issue also focus on RCM SMILEs, with projections of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its regional impacts assessed over Europe, and an RCM SMILE intercomparison. Finally a subset of studies investigate projected impacts of global warming, with increased water flows projected for future hydrometeorological events in southern Ontario; precipitation projections over central Europe are investigated and found to be inconsistent across models in the Alps, with a continuation of past tendencies in Mid-Europe; and equatorial Asia is found to have an increase in the probability of large fire and drought events under higher ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Earth System Dynamics 12 2 401 418 |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Maher, Nicola Milinski, Sebastian Ludwig, Ralf Large ensemble climate model simulations: introduction, overview, and future prospects for utilising multiple types of large ensemble |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) are valuable tools that can be used to investigate the climate system. SMILEs allow scientists to quantify and separate the internal variability of the climate system and its response to external forcing, with different types of SMILEs appropriate to answer different scientific questions. In this editorial we first provide an introduction to SMILEs and an overview of the studies in the special issue “Large Ensemble Climate Model Simulations: Exploring Natural Variability, Change Signals and Impacts”. These studies analyse a range of different types of SMILEs including global climate models (GCMs), regionally downscaled climate models (RCMs), a hydrological model with input from a RCM SMILE, a SMILE with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) built for event attribution, a SMILE that assimilates observed data, and an initialised regional model. These studies provide novel methods, that can be used with SMILEs. The methods published in this issue include a snapshot empirical orthogonal function analysis used to investigate El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnections; the partitioning of future uncertainty into model differences, internal variability, and scenario choices; a weighting scheme for multi-model ensembles that can incorporate SMILEs; and a method to identify the required ensemble size for any given problem. Studies in this special issue also focus on RCM SMILEs, with projections of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its regional impacts assessed over Europe, and an RCM SMILE intercomparison. Finally a subset of studies investigate projected impacts of global warming, with increased water flows projected for future hydrometeorological events in southern Ontario; precipitation projections over central Europe are investigated and found to be inconsistent across models in the Alps, with a continuation of past tendencies in Mid-Europe; and equatorial Asia is found to have an increase in the probability of large fire and drought events under higher ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Maher, Nicola Milinski, Sebastian Ludwig, Ralf |
author_facet |
Maher, Nicola Milinski, Sebastian Ludwig, Ralf |
author_sort |
Maher, Nicola |
title |
Large ensemble climate model simulations: introduction, overview, and future prospects for utilising multiple types of large ensemble |
title_short |
Large ensemble climate model simulations: introduction, overview, and future prospects for utilising multiple types of large ensemble |
title_full |
Large ensemble climate model simulations: introduction, overview, and future prospects for utilising multiple types of large ensemble |
title_fullStr |
Large ensemble climate model simulations: introduction, overview, and future prospects for utilising multiple types of large ensemble |
title_full_unstemmed |
Large ensemble climate model simulations: introduction, overview, and future prospects for utilising multiple types of large ensemble |
title_sort |
large ensemble climate model simulations: introduction, overview, and future prospects for utilising multiple types of large ensemble |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-401-2021 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00056353 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00056004/esd-12-401-2021.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/401/2021/esd-12-401-2021.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
Earth System Dynamics -- http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/ -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2578793 -- 2190-4987 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-401-2021 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00056353 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00056004/esd-12-401-2021.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/401/2021/esd-12-401-2021.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-401-2021 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
401 |
op_container_end_page |
418 |
_version_ |
1810464610670608384 |