Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth
In this paper, we present and evaluate the skill of an EC-Earth3.3 decadal prediction system contributing to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project – Component A (DCPP-A). This prediction system is capable of skilfully simulating past global mean surface temperature variations at interannual and dec...
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Copernicus Publications
2021
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00055576 2023-05-15T17:06:05+02:00 Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth Bilbao, Roberto Wild, Simon Ortega, Pablo Acosta-Navarro, Juan Arsouze, Thomas Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine Caron, Louis-Philippe Castrillo, Miguel Cruz-García, Rubén Cvijanovic, Ivana Doblas-Reyes, Francisco Javier Donat, Markus Dutra, Emanuel Echevarría, Pablo Ho, An-Chi Loosveldt-Tomas, Saskia Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo Pérez-Zanon, Núria Ramos, Arthur Ruprich-Robert, Yohan Sicardi, Valentina Tourigny, Etienne Vegas-Regidor, Javier 2021-02 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00055576 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00055227/esd-12-173-2021.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/173/2021/esd-12-173-2021.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Earth System Dynamics -- http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/ -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2578793 -- 2190-4987 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00055576 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00055227/esd-12-173-2021.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/173/2021/esd-12-173-2021.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2021 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021 2022-02-08T22:34:29Z In this paper, we present and evaluate the skill of an EC-Earth3.3 decadal prediction system contributing to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project – Component A (DCPP-A). This prediction system is capable of skilfully simulating past global mean surface temperature variations at interannual and decadal forecast times as well as the local surface temperature in regions such as the tropical Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and most of the continental areas, although most of the skill comes from the representation of the external radiative forcings. A benefit of initialization in the predictive skill is evident in some areas of the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic oceans in the first forecast years, an added value that is mostly confined to the south-east tropical Pacific and the eastern subpolar North Atlantic at the longest forecast times (6–10 years). The central subpolar North Atlantic shows poor predictive skill and a detrimental effect of initialization that leads to a quick collapse in Labrador Sea convection, followed by a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and excessive local sea ice growth. The shutdown in Labrador Sea convection responds to a gradual increase in the local density stratification in the first years of the forecast, ultimately related to the different paces at which surface and subsurface temperature and salinity drift towards their preferred mean state. This transition happens rapidly at the surface and more slowly in the subsurface, where, by the 10th forecast year, the model is still far from the typical mean states in the corresponding ensemble of historical simulations with EC-Earth3. Thus, our study highlights the Labrador Sea as a region that can be sensitive to full-field initialization and hamper the final prediction skill, a problem that can be alleviated by improving the regional model biases through model development and by identifying more optimal initialization strategies. Article in Journal/Newspaper Labrador Sea North Atlantic Sea ice Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Indian Pacific Earth System Dynamics 12 1 173 196 |
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Open Polar |
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Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
op_collection_id |
ftnonlinearchiv |
language |
English |
topic |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
spellingShingle |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung Bilbao, Roberto Wild, Simon Ortega, Pablo Acosta-Navarro, Juan Arsouze, Thomas Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine Caron, Louis-Philippe Castrillo, Miguel Cruz-García, Rubén Cvijanovic, Ivana Doblas-Reyes, Francisco Javier Donat, Markus Dutra, Emanuel Echevarría, Pablo Ho, An-Chi Loosveldt-Tomas, Saskia Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo Pérez-Zanon, Núria Ramos, Arthur Ruprich-Robert, Yohan Sicardi, Valentina Tourigny, Etienne Vegas-Regidor, Javier Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
In this paper, we present and evaluate the skill of an EC-Earth3.3 decadal prediction system contributing to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project – Component A (DCPP-A). This prediction system is capable of skilfully simulating past global mean surface temperature variations at interannual and decadal forecast times as well as the local surface temperature in regions such as the tropical Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and most of the continental areas, although most of the skill comes from the representation of the external radiative forcings. A benefit of initialization in the predictive skill is evident in some areas of the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic oceans in the first forecast years, an added value that is mostly confined to the south-east tropical Pacific and the eastern subpolar North Atlantic at the longest forecast times (6–10 years). The central subpolar North Atlantic shows poor predictive skill and a detrimental effect of initialization that leads to a quick collapse in Labrador Sea convection, followed by a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and excessive local sea ice growth. The shutdown in Labrador Sea convection responds to a gradual increase in the local density stratification in the first years of the forecast, ultimately related to the different paces at which surface and subsurface temperature and salinity drift towards their preferred mean state. This transition happens rapidly at the surface and more slowly in the subsurface, where, by the 10th forecast year, the model is still far from the typical mean states in the corresponding ensemble of historical simulations with EC-Earth3. Thus, our study highlights the Labrador Sea as a region that can be sensitive to full-field initialization and hamper the final prediction skill, a problem that can be alleviated by improving the regional model biases through model development and by identifying more optimal initialization strategies. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bilbao, Roberto Wild, Simon Ortega, Pablo Acosta-Navarro, Juan Arsouze, Thomas Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine Caron, Louis-Philippe Castrillo, Miguel Cruz-García, Rubén Cvijanovic, Ivana Doblas-Reyes, Francisco Javier Donat, Markus Dutra, Emanuel Echevarría, Pablo Ho, An-Chi Loosveldt-Tomas, Saskia Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo Pérez-Zanon, Núria Ramos, Arthur Ruprich-Robert, Yohan Sicardi, Valentina Tourigny, Etienne Vegas-Regidor, Javier |
author_facet |
Bilbao, Roberto Wild, Simon Ortega, Pablo Acosta-Navarro, Juan Arsouze, Thomas Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine Caron, Louis-Philippe Castrillo, Miguel Cruz-García, Rubén Cvijanovic, Ivana Doblas-Reyes, Francisco Javier Donat, Markus Dutra, Emanuel Echevarría, Pablo Ho, An-Chi Loosveldt-Tomas, Saskia Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo Pérez-Zanon, Núria Ramos, Arthur Ruprich-Robert, Yohan Sicardi, Valentina Tourigny, Etienne Vegas-Regidor, Javier |
author_sort |
Bilbao, Roberto |
title |
Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth |
title_short |
Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth |
title_full |
Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth |
title_fullStr |
Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth |
title_sort |
assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the cmip6 version of ec-earth |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00055576 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00055227/esd-12-173-2021.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/173/2021/esd-12-173-2021.pdf |
geographic |
Indian Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Indian Pacific |
genre |
Labrador Sea North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Labrador Sea North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_relation |
Earth System Dynamics -- http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/ -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2578793 -- 2190-4987 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00055576 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00055227/esd-12-173-2021.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/173/2021/esd-12-173-2021.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
173 |
op_container_end_page |
196 |
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1766061046604234752 |