Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
We present projections of West Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) and surface melt to 2080–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario and based on a regional model at 10 km resolution. Our projections are built by adding a CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) multi-model-mean seasonal climate...
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Copernicus Publications
2021
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00055516 2023-05-15T13:37:34+02:00 Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Donat-Magnin, Marion Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kittel, Christoph Agosta, Cécile Amory, Charles Gallée, Hubert Krinner, Gerhard Chekki, Mondher 2021-02 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00055516 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00055167/tc-15-571-2021.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/571/2021/tc-15-571-2021.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00055516 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00055167/tc-15-571-2021.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/571/2021/tc-15-571-2021.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2021 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021 2022-02-08T22:34:32Z We present projections of West Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) and surface melt to 2080–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario and based on a regional model at 10 km resolution. Our projections are built by adding a CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) multi-model-mean seasonal climate-change anomaly to the present-day model boundary conditions. Using an anomaly has the advantage to reduce CMIP5 model biases, and a perfect-model test reveals that our approach captures most characteristics of future changes despite a 16 %–17 % underestimation of projected SMB and melt rates. SMB over the grounded ice sheet in the sector between Getz and Abbot increases from 336 Gt yr−1 in 1989–2009 to 455 Gt yr−1 in 2080–2100, which would reduce the global sea level changing rate by 0.33 mm yr−1. Snowfall indeed increases by 7.4 % ∘C−1 to 8.9 % ∘C−1 of near-surface warming due to increasing saturation water vapour pressure in warmer conditions, reduced sea-ice concentrations, and more marine air intrusion. Ice-shelf surface melt rates increase by an order of magnitude in the 21st century mostly due to higher downward radiation from increased humidity and to reduced albedo in the presence of melting. There is a net production of surface liquid water over eastern ice shelves (Abbot, Cosgrove, and Pine Island) but not over western ice shelves (Thwaites, Crosson, Dotson, and Getz). This is explained by the evolution of the melt-to-snowfall ratio: below a threshold of 0.60 to 0.85 in our simulations, firn air is not entirely depleted by melt water, while entire depletion and net production of surface liquid water occur for higher ratios. This suggests that western ice shelves might remain unaffected by hydrofracturing for more than a century under RCP8.5, while eastern ice shelves have a high potential for hydrofracturing before the end of this century. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Sea ice The Cryosphere Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Antarctic Getz ENVELOPE(-145.217,-145.217,-76.550,-76.550) West Antarctic Ice Sheet The Cryosphere 15 2 571 593 |
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Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
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English |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Donat-Magnin, Marion Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kittel, Christoph Agosta, Cécile Amory, Charles Gallée, Hubert Krinner, Gerhard Chekki, Mondher Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
We present projections of West Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) and surface melt to 2080–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario and based on a regional model at 10 km resolution. Our projections are built by adding a CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) multi-model-mean seasonal climate-change anomaly to the present-day model boundary conditions. Using an anomaly has the advantage to reduce CMIP5 model biases, and a perfect-model test reveals that our approach captures most characteristics of future changes despite a 16 %–17 % underestimation of projected SMB and melt rates. SMB over the grounded ice sheet in the sector between Getz and Abbot increases from 336 Gt yr−1 in 1989–2009 to 455 Gt yr−1 in 2080–2100, which would reduce the global sea level changing rate by 0.33 mm yr−1. Snowfall indeed increases by 7.4 % ∘C−1 to 8.9 % ∘C−1 of near-surface warming due to increasing saturation water vapour pressure in warmer conditions, reduced sea-ice concentrations, and more marine air intrusion. Ice-shelf surface melt rates increase by an order of magnitude in the 21st century mostly due to higher downward radiation from increased humidity and to reduced albedo in the presence of melting. There is a net production of surface liquid water over eastern ice shelves (Abbot, Cosgrove, and Pine Island) but not over western ice shelves (Thwaites, Crosson, Dotson, and Getz). This is explained by the evolution of the melt-to-snowfall ratio: below a threshold of 0.60 to 0.85 in our simulations, firn air is not entirely depleted by melt water, while entire depletion and net production of surface liquid water occur for higher ratios. This suggests that western ice shelves might remain unaffected by hydrofracturing for more than a century under RCP8.5, while eastern ice shelves have a high potential for hydrofracturing before the end of this century. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Donat-Magnin, Marion Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kittel, Christoph Agosta, Cécile Amory, Charles Gallée, Hubert Krinner, Gerhard Chekki, Mondher |
author_facet |
Donat-Magnin, Marion Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kittel, Christoph Agosta, Cécile Amory, Charles Gallée, Hubert Krinner, Gerhard Chekki, Mondher |
author_sort |
Donat-Magnin, Marion |
title |
Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
title_short |
Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
title_full |
Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
title_fullStr |
Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
title_sort |
future surface mass balance and surface melt in the amundsen sector of the west antarctic ice sheet |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00055516 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00055167/tc-15-571-2021.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/571/2021/tc-15-571-2021.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-145.217,-145.217,-76.550,-76.550) |
geographic |
Antarctic Getz West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Getz West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_relation |
The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00055516 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00055167/tc-15-571-2021.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/571/2021/tc-15-571-2021.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
571 |
op_container_end_page |
593 |
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1766094154767532032 |