Nonlinear time series models for the North Atlantic Oscillation
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of climate variability over the North Atlantic basin and has a significant impact on seasonal climate and surface weather conditions. This is the result of complex and nonlinear interactions between many spatio-temporal scales. Here, the auth...
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00054216 2023-05-15T17:28:04+02:00 Nonlinear time series models for the North Atlantic Oscillation Önskog, Thomas Franzke, Christian L. E. Hannachi, Abdel 2020-10 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-141-2020 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00054216 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00053867/ascmo-6-141-2020.pdf https://ascmo.copernicus.org/articles/6/141/2020/ascmo-6-141-2020.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography -- http://advances-statistical-climatology-meteorology-oceanography.net/ -- https://www.adv-stat-clim-meteorol-oceanogr.net/volumes_and_issues.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2840620 -- 2364-3587 https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-141-2020 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00054216 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00053867/ascmo-6-141-2020.pdf https://ascmo.copernicus.org/articles/6/141/2020/ascmo-6-141-2020.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2020 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-141-2020 2022-02-08T22:35:08Z The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of climate variability over the North Atlantic basin and has a significant impact on seasonal climate and surface weather conditions. This is the result of complex and nonlinear interactions between many spatio-temporal scales. Here, the authors study a number of linear and nonlinear models for a station-based time series of the daily winter NAO index. It is found that nonlinear autoregressive models, including both short and long lags, perform excellently in reproducing the characteristic statistical properties of the NAO, such as skewness and fat tails of the distribution, and the different timescales of the two phases. As a spin-off of the modelling procedure, we can deduce that the interannual dependence of the NAO mostly affects the positive phase, and that timescales of 1 to 3 weeks are more dominant for the negative phase. Furthermore, the statistical properties of the model make it useful for the generation of realistic climate noise. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography 6 2 141 157 |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Önskog, Thomas Franzke, Christian L. E. Hannachi, Abdel Nonlinear time series models for the North Atlantic Oscillation |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of climate variability over the North Atlantic basin and has a significant impact on seasonal climate and surface weather conditions. This is the result of complex and nonlinear interactions between many spatio-temporal scales. Here, the authors study a number of linear and nonlinear models for a station-based time series of the daily winter NAO index. It is found that nonlinear autoregressive models, including both short and long lags, perform excellently in reproducing the characteristic statistical properties of the NAO, such as skewness and fat tails of the distribution, and the different timescales of the two phases. As a spin-off of the modelling procedure, we can deduce that the interannual dependence of the NAO mostly affects the positive phase, and that timescales of 1 to 3 weeks are more dominant for the negative phase. Furthermore, the statistical properties of the model make it useful for the generation of realistic climate noise. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Önskog, Thomas Franzke, Christian L. E. Hannachi, Abdel |
author_facet |
Önskog, Thomas Franzke, Christian L. E. Hannachi, Abdel |
author_sort |
Önskog, Thomas |
title |
Nonlinear time series models for the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_short |
Nonlinear time series models for the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_full |
Nonlinear time series models for the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_fullStr |
Nonlinear time series models for the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Nonlinear time series models for the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_sort |
nonlinear time series models for the north atlantic oscillation |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-141-2020 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00054216 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00053867/ascmo-6-141-2020.pdf https://ascmo.copernicus.org/articles/6/141/2020/ascmo-6-141-2020.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography -- http://advances-statistical-climatology-meteorology-oceanography.net/ -- https://www.adv-stat-clim-meteorol-oceanogr.net/volumes_and_issues.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2840620 -- 2364-3587 https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-141-2020 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00054216 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00053867/ascmo-6-141-2020.pdf https://ascmo.copernicus.org/articles/6/141/2020/ascmo-6-141-2020.pdf |
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-141-2020 |
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