Modelling regional glacier length changes over the last millennium using the Open Global Glacier Model

A large majority of the direct observational record for glacier changes falls within the industrial period, from the 19th century onward, associated with global glacier retreat. Given this availability of data and the significant focus in contemporary glacier modelling falling on recent retreat, gla...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Cryosphere
Main Authors: Parkes, David, Goosse, Hugues
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2020
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020
https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00053116
https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00052769/tc-14-3135-2020.pdf
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3135/2020/tc-14-3135-2020.pdf
id ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00053116
record_format openpolar
spelling ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00053116 2023-05-15T18:32:33+02:00 Modelling regional glacier length changes over the last millennium using the Open Global Glacier Model Parkes, David Goosse, Hugues 2020-09 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00053116 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00052769/tc-14-3135-2020.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3135/2020/tc-14-3135-2020.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00053116 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00052769/tc-14-3135-2020.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3135/2020/tc-14-3135-2020.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2020 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020 2022-02-08T22:35:40Z A large majority of the direct observational record for glacier changes falls within the industrial period, from the 19th century onward, associated with global glacier retreat. Given this availability of data and the significant focus in contemporary glacier modelling falling on recent retreat, glacier models are typically calibrated using – and validated with – only observations of glaciers that are considerably out of equilibrium. In order to develop a broader picture of the skill of one glacier model – the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) – we model glaciers for extended historical timescales of 850–2004 CE using a selection of six general circulation model (GCM) outputs. We select glaciers for which long-term length observations are available in order to compare these observations with the model results, and we find glaciers with such observations in almost all glacierised regions globally. In many regions, the mean modelled glacier changes are consistent with observations, with recent observed retreat in these regions typically at the steeper end of the range of modelled retreats. However, on the scale of individual glaciers, performance of the model is worse, with overall correlation between observed and modelled retreat weak for all of the GCM datasets used to force the model. We also model the same set of glaciers using modified climate time series from each of the six GCMs that keep temperature or precipitation constant, testing the impact of each individually. Temperature typically explains considerably more variance in glacier lengths than precipitation, but results suggest that the interaction between the two is also significant within OGGM and neither can be seen as a simple proxy for glacier length changes. OGGM proves capable of reproducing recent observational trends on at least a qualitative level in many regions, with a modelling period over a considerably larger timescale than it is calibrated for. Prospects are good for more widespread use of OGGM for timescales extending to the pre-industrial period, where glaciers were typically larger and experience less rapid (and less globally consistent) geometry changes, but additional calibration will be required in order to have confidence in the magnitude of modelled changes, particularly on the scale of individual glaciers. Article in Journal/Newspaper The Cryosphere Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA The Cryosphere 14 9 3135 3153
institution Open Polar
collection Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA
op_collection_id ftnonlinearchiv
language English
topic article
Verlagsveröffentlichung
spellingShingle article
Verlagsveröffentlichung
Parkes, David
Goosse, Hugues
Modelling regional glacier length changes over the last millennium using the Open Global Glacier Model
topic_facet article
Verlagsveröffentlichung
description A large majority of the direct observational record for glacier changes falls within the industrial period, from the 19th century onward, associated with global glacier retreat. Given this availability of data and the significant focus in contemporary glacier modelling falling on recent retreat, glacier models are typically calibrated using – and validated with – only observations of glaciers that are considerably out of equilibrium. In order to develop a broader picture of the skill of one glacier model – the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) – we model glaciers for extended historical timescales of 850–2004 CE using a selection of six general circulation model (GCM) outputs. We select glaciers for which long-term length observations are available in order to compare these observations with the model results, and we find glaciers with such observations in almost all glacierised regions globally. In many regions, the mean modelled glacier changes are consistent with observations, with recent observed retreat in these regions typically at the steeper end of the range of modelled retreats. However, on the scale of individual glaciers, performance of the model is worse, with overall correlation between observed and modelled retreat weak for all of the GCM datasets used to force the model. We also model the same set of glaciers using modified climate time series from each of the six GCMs that keep temperature or precipitation constant, testing the impact of each individually. Temperature typically explains considerably more variance in glacier lengths than precipitation, but results suggest that the interaction between the two is also significant within OGGM and neither can be seen as a simple proxy for glacier length changes. OGGM proves capable of reproducing recent observational trends on at least a qualitative level in many regions, with a modelling period over a considerably larger timescale than it is calibrated for. Prospects are good for more widespread use of OGGM for timescales extending to the pre-industrial period, where glaciers were typically larger and experience less rapid (and less globally consistent) geometry changes, but additional calibration will be required in order to have confidence in the magnitude of modelled changes, particularly on the scale of individual glaciers.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Parkes, David
Goosse, Hugues
author_facet Parkes, David
Goosse, Hugues
author_sort Parkes, David
title Modelling regional glacier length changes over the last millennium using the Open Global Glacier Model
title_short Modelling regional glacier length changes over the last millennium using the Open Global Glacier Model
title_full Modelling regional glacier length changes over the last millennium using the Open Global Glacier Model
title_fullStr Modelling regional glacier length changes over the last millennium using the Open Global Glacier Model
title_full_unstemmed Modelling regional glacier length changes over the last millennium using the Open Global Glacier Model
title_sort modelling regional glacier length changes over the last millennium using the open global glacier model
publisher Copernicus Publications
publishDate 2020
url https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020
https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00053116
https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00052769/tc-14-3135-2020.pdf
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3135/2020/tc-14-3135-2020.pdf
genre The Cryosphere
genre_facet The Cryosphere
op_relation The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020
https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00053116
https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00052769/tc-14-3135-2020.pdf
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3135/2020/tc-14-3135-2020.pdf
op_rights https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
uneingeschränkt
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
op_rightsnorm CC-BY
op_doi https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020
container_title The Cryosphere
container_volume 14
container_issue 9
container_start_page 3135
op_container_end_page 3153
_version_ 1766216741588828160