This article presents the results of a bifurcation analysis of a simple energy balance model (EBM) for the future climate of the Earth. The main focus is on the following question: can the nonlinear processes intrinsic to atmospheric physics, including natural positive feedback mechanisms, cause a m...
Published in: | Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00051987 2023-05-15T13:11:55+02:00 Kypke, Kolja Leon Langford, William Finlay Willms, Allan Richard 2020-07 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-391-2020 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00051987 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00051643/npg-27-391-2020.pdf https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/27/391/2020/npg-27-391-2020.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2078085 -- http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/ -- http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/npg/npg.htm -- 1607-7946 https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-391-2020 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00051987 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00051643/npg-27-391-2020.pdf https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/27/391/2020/npg-27-391-2020.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2020 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-391-2020 2022-02-08T22:36:10Z This article presents the results of a bifurcation analysis of a simple energy balance model (EBM) for the future climate of the Earth. The main focus is on the following question: can the nonlinear processes intrinsic to atmospheric physics, including natural positive feedback mechanisms, cause a mathematical bifurcation of the climate state, as a consequence of continued anthropogenic forcing by rising greenhouse gas emissions? Our analysis shows that such a bifurcation could cause an abrupt change to a drastically different climate state in the EBM, which is warmer and more equable than any climate existing on Earth since the Pliocene epoch. In previous papers, with this EBM adapted to paleoclimate conditions, it was shown to exhibit saddle-node and cusp bifurcations, as well as hysteresis. The EBM was validated by the agreement of its predicted bifurcations with the abrupt climate changes that are known to have occurred in the paleoclimate record, in the Antarctic at the Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT) and in the Arctic at the Pliocene–Paleocene transition (PPT). In this paper, the EBM is adapted to fit Anthropocene climate conditions, with emphasis on the Arctic and Antarctic climates. The four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) considered by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) are used to model future CO2 concentrations, corresponding to different scenarios of anthropogenic activity. In addition, the EBM investigates four naturally occurring nonlinear feedback processes which magnify the warming that would be caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions alone. These four feedback mechanisms are ice–albedo feedback, water vapour feedback, ocean heat transport feedback, and atmospheric heat transport feedback. The EBM predicts that a bifurcation resulting in a catastrophic climate change, to a pre-Pliocene-like climate state, will occur in coming centuries for an RCP with unabated anthropogenic forcing, amplified by these positive feedbacks. However, the EBM also predicts that appropriate reductions in carbon emissions may limit climate change to a more tolerable continuation of what is observed today. The globally averaged version of this EBM has an equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 4.34 K, near the high end of the likely range reported by the IPCC. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 27 3 391 409 |
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English |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Kypke, Kolja Leon Langford, William Finlay Willms, Allan Richard |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
This article presents the results of a bifurcation analysis of a simple energy balance model (EBM) for the future climate of the Earth. The main focus is on the following question: can the nonlinear processes intrinsic to atmospheric physics, including natural positive feedback mechanisms, cause a mathematical bifurcation of the climate state, as a consequence of continued anthropogenic forcing by rising greenhouse gas emissions? Our analysis shows that such a bifurcation could cause an abrupt change to a drastically different climate state in the EBM, which is warmer and more equable than any climate existing on Earth since the Pliocene epoch. In previous papers, with this EBM adapted to paleoclimate conditions, it was shown to exhibit saddle-node and cusp bifurcations, as well as hysteresis. The EBM was validated by the agreement of its predicted bifurcations with the abrupt climate changes that are known to have occurred in the paleoclimate record, in the Antarctic at the Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT) and in the Arctic at the Pliocene–Paleocene transition (PPT). In this paper, the EBM is adapted to fit Anthropocene climate conditions, with emphasis on the Arctic and Antarctic climates. The four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) considered by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) are used to model future CO2 concentrations, corresponding to different scenarios of anthropogenic activity. In addition, the EBM investigates four naturally occurring nonlinear feedback processes which magnify the warming that would be caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions alone. These four feedback mechanisms are ice–albedo feedback, water vapour feedback, ocean heat transport feedback, and atmospheric heat transport feedback. The EBM predicts that a bifurcation resulting in a catastrophic climate change, to a pre-Pliocene-like climate state, will occur in coming centuries for an RCP with unabated anthropogenic forcing, amplified by these positive feedbacks. However, the EBM also predicts that appropriate reductions in carbon emissions may limit climate change to a more tolerable continuation of what is observed today. The globally averaged version of this EBM has an equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 4.34 K, near the high end of the likely range reported by the IPCC. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kypke, Kolja Leon Langford, William Finlay Willms, Allan Richard |
author_facet |
Kypke, Kolja Leon Langford, William Finlay Willms, Allan Richard |
author_sort |
Kypke, Kolja Leon |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-391-2020 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00051987 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00051643/npg-27-391-2020.pdf https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/27/391/2020/npg-27-391-2020.pdf |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
genre |
albedo Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
albedo Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
op_relation |
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2078085 -- http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/ -- http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/npg/npg.htm -- 1607-7946 https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-391-2020 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00051987 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00051643/npg-27-391-2020.pdf https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/27/391/2020/npg-27-391-2020.pdf |
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-391-2020 |
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Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
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27 |
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3 |
container_start_page |
391 |
op_container_end_page |
409 |
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