Eurasian autumn snow link to winter North Atlantic Oscillation is strongest for Arctic warming periods
In recent years, many components of the connection between Eurasian autumn snow cover and wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have been investigated, suggesting that November snow cover distribution has strong prediction power for the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter climate. However, the...
Published in: | Earth System Dynamics |
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Copernicus Publications
2020
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00051652 2023-05-15T14:53:38+02:00 Eurasian autumn snow link to winter North Atlantic Oscillation is strongest for Arctic warming periods Wegmann, Martin Rohrer, Marco Santolaria-Otín, María Lohmann, Gerrit 2020-05 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00051652 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00051308/esd-11-509-2020.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/509/2020/esd-11-509-2020.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Earth System Dynamics -- http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/ -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2578793 -- 2190-4987 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00051652 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00051308/esd-11-509-2020.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/509/2020/esd-11-509-2020.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2020 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020 2022-02-08T22:36:18Z In recent years, many components of the connection between Eurasian autumn snow cover and wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have been investigated, suggesting that November snow cover distribution has strong prediction power for the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter climate. However, the non-stationarity of this relationship could impact its use for prediction routines. Here we use snow products from long-term reanalyses to investigate interannual and interdecadal links between autumnal snow cover and atmospheric conditions in winter. We find evidence for a negative NAO-like signal after November with a strong west-to-east snow cover gradient, which is valid throughout the last 150 years. This correlation is consistently linked to a weak stratospheric polar vortex state. Nevertheless, decadal evolution of this link shows episodes of decreased correlation strength, which co-occur with episodes of low variability in the November snow index. By contrast, periods with high prediction skill for winter NAO are found in periods of high November snow variability, which co-occur with the Arctic warming periods of the 20th century, namely the early 20th-century Arctic warming between 1920 and 1940 and the ongoing anthropogenic global warming at the end of the 20th century. A strong snow dipole itself is consistently associated with reduced Barents–Kara sea ice concentration, increased Ural blocking frequency and negative temperature anomalies in eastern Eurasia. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Global warming Kara Sea North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Arctic Kara Sea Earth System Dynamics 11 2 509 524 |
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Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
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English |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Wegmann, Martin Rohrer, Marco Santolaria-Otín, María Lohmann, Gerrit Eurasian autumn snow link to winter North Atlantic Oscillation is strongest for Arctic warming periods |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
In recent years, many components of the connection between Eurasian autumn snow cover and wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have been investigated, suggesting that November snow cover distribution has strong prediction power for the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter climate. However, the non-stationarity of this relationship could impact its use for prediction routines. Here we use snow products from long-term reanalyses to investigate interannual and interdecadal links between autumnal snow cover and atmospheric conditions in winter. We find evidence for a negative NAO-like signal after November with a strong west-to-east snow cover gradient, which is valid throughout the last 150 years. This correlation is consistently linked to a weak stratospheric polar vortex state. Nevertheless, decadal evolution of this link shows episodes of decreased correlation strength, which co-occur with episodes of low variability in the November snow index. By contrast, periods with high prediction skill for winter NAO are found in periods of high November snow variability, which co-occur with the Arctic warming periods of the 20th century, namely the early 20th-century Arctic warming between 1920 and 1940 and the ongoing anthropogenic global warming at the end of the 20th century. A strong snow dipole itself is consistently associated with reduced Barents–Kara sea ice concentration, increased Ural blocking frequency and negative temperature anomalies in eastern Eurasia. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wegmann, Martin Rohrer, Marco Santolaria-Otín, María Lohmann, Gerrit |
author_facet |
Wegmann, Martin Rohrer, Marco Santolaria-Otín, María Lohmann, Gerrit |
author_sort |
Wegmann, Martin |
title |
Eurasian autumn snow link to winter North Atlantic Oscillation is strongest for Arctic warming periods |
title_short |
Eurasian autumn snow link to winter North Atlantic Oscillation is strongest for Arctic warming periods |
title_full |
Eurasian autumn snow link to winter North Atlantic Oscillation is strongest for Arctic warming periods |
title_fullStr |
Eurasian autumn snow link to winter North Atlantic Oscillation is strongest for Arctic warming periods |
title_full_unstemmed |
Eurasian autumn snow link to winter North Atlantic Oscillation is strongest for Arctic warming periods |
title_sort |
eurasian autumn snow link to winter north atlantic oscillation is strongest for arctic warming periods |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00051652 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00051308/esd-11-509-2020.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/509/2020/esd-11-509-2020.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Kara Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Kara Sea |
genre |
Arctic Global warming Kara Sea North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Global warming Kara Sea North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_relation |
Earth System Dynamics -- http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/ -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2578793 -- 2190-4987 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00051652 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00051308/esd-11-509-2020.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/509/2020/esd-11-509-2020.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
509 |
op_container_end_page |
524 |
_version_ |
1766325237278834688 |