Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers
Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems and the socioeconomic systems that may depend upon them. Temperature, pH, oxygen (O2) and net primary production (NPP) are commonly considered to be important marine ecosystem drivers, but the potential predictability of these drivers...
Published in: | Biogeosciences |
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Copernicus Publications
2020
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00051226 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00050882/bg-17-2061-2020.pdf https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/2061/2020/bg-17-2061-2020.pdf |
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00051226 2023-05-15T15:08:44+02:00 Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers Frölicher, Thomas L. Ramseyer, Luca Raible, Christoph C. Rodgers, Keith B. Dunne, John 2020-04 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00051226 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00050882/bg-17-2061-2020.pdf https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/2061/2020/bg-17-2061-2020.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Biogeosciences -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2158181 -- http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/bg/bg.html -- 1726-4189 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00051226 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00050882/bg-17-2061-2020.pdf https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/2061/2020/bg-17-2061-2020.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2020 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020 2022-02-08T22:36:29Z Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems and the socioeconomic systems that may depend upon them. Temperature, pH, oxygen (O2) and net primary production (NPP) are commonly considered to be important marine ecosystem drivers, but the potential predictability of these drivers is largely unknown. Here, we use a comprehensive Earth system model within a perfect modeling framework to show that all four ecosystem drivers are potentially predictable on global scales and at the surface up to 3 years in advance. However, there are distinct regional differences in the potential predictability of these drivers. Maximum potential predictability (>10 years) is found at the surface for temperature and O2 in the Southern Ocean and for temperature, O2 and pH in the North Atlantic. This is tied to ocean overturning structures with “memory” or inertia with enhanced predictability in winter. Additionally, these four drivers are highly potentially predictable in the Arctic Ocean at the surface. In contrast, minimum predictability is simulated for NPP (<1 years) in the Southern Ocean. Potential predictability for temperature, O2 and pH increases with depth below the thermocline to more than 10 years, except in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, where predictability is also 3 to 5 years in the thermocline. This study indicating multi-year (at surface) and decadal (subsurface) potential predictability for multiple ecosystem drivers is intended as a foundation to foster broader community efforts in developing new predictions of marine ecosystem drivers. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean North Atlantic Southern Ocean Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Arctic Southern Ocean Arctic Ocean Pacific Indian Biogeosciences 17 7 2061 2083 |
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Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
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ftnonlinearchiv |
language |
English |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Frölicher, Thomas L. Ramseyer, Luca Raible, Christoph C. Rodgers, Keith B. Dunne, John Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems and the socioeconomic systems that may depend upon them. Temperature, pH, oxygen (O2) and net primary production (NPP) are commonly considered to be important marine ecosystem drivers, but the potential predictability of these drivers is largely unknown. Here, we use a comprehensive Earth system model within a perfect modeling framework to show that all four ecosystem drivers are potentially predictable on global scales and at the surface up to 3 years in advance. However, there are distinct regional differences in the potential predictability of these drivers. Maximum potential predictability (>10 years) is found at the surface for temperature and O2 in the Southern Ocean and for temperature, O2 and pH in the North Atlantic. This is tied to ocean overturning structures with “memory” or inertia with enhanced predictability in winter. Additionally, these four drivers are highly potentially predictable in the Arctic Ocean at the surface. In contrast, minimum predictability is simulated for NPP (<1 years) in the Southern Ocean. Potential predictability for temperature, O2 and pH increases with depth below the thermocline to more than 10 years, except in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, where predictability is also 3 to 5 years in the thermocline. This study indicating multi-year (at surface) and decadal (subsurface) potential predictability for multiple ecosystem drivers is intended as a foundation to foster broader community efforts in developing new predictions of marine ecosystem drivers. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Frölicher, Thomas L. Ramseyer, Luca Raible, Christoph C. Rodgers, Keith B. Dunne, John |
author_facet |
Frölicher, Thomas L. Ramseyer, Luca Raible, Christoph C. Rodgers, Keith B. Dunne, John |
author_sort |
Frölicher, Thomas L. |
title |
Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers |
title_short |
Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers |
title_full |
Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers |
title_fullStr |
Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers |
title_full_unstemmed |
Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers |
title_sort |
potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00051226 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00050882/bg-17-2061-2020.pdf https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/2061/2020/bg-17-2061-2020.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Southern Ocean Arctic Ocean Pacific Indian |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Southern Ocean Arctic Ocean Pacific Indian |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
Biogeosciences -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2158181 -- http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/bg/bg.html -- 1726-4189 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00051226 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00050882/bg-17-2061-2020.pdf https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/2061/2020/bg-17-2061-2020.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020 |
container_title |
Biogeosciences |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
2061 |
op_container_end_page |
2083 |
_version_ |
1766340044401934336 |