Sensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics
The impact and significance of uncertainties in model calculations of stratospheric ozone loss resulting from known uncertainty in chemical kinetics parameters is evaluated in trajectory chemistry simulations for the Antarctic and Arctic polar vortices. The uncertainty in modeled ozone loss is deriv...
Published in: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2009
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00047517 2023-05-15T13:55:41+02:00 Sensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics Kawa, S. R. Stolarski, R. S. Newman, P. A. Douglass, A. R. Rex, M. Hofmann, D. J. Santee, M. L. Frieler, K. 2009-11 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-8651-2009 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00047517 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00047137/acp-9-8651-2009.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/9/8651/2009/acp-9-8651-2009.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics -- http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/volumes_and_issues.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2069847 -- 1680-7324 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-8651-2009 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00047517 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00047137/acp-9-8651-2009.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/9/8651/2009/acp-9-8651-2009.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2009 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-8651-2009 2022-02-08T22:38:24Z The impact and significance of uncertainties in model calculations of stratospheric ozone loss resulting from known uncertainty in chemical kinetics parameters is evaluated in trajectory chemistry simulations for the Antarctic and Arctic polar vortices. The uncertainty in modeled ozone loss is derived from Monte Carlo scenario simulations varying the kinetic (reaction and photolysis rate) parameters within their estimated uncertainty bounds. Simulations of a typical winter/spring Antarctic vortex scenario and Match scenarios in the Arctic produce large uncertainty in ozone loss rates and integrated seasonal loss. The simulations clearly indicate that the dominant source of model uncertainty in polar ozone loss is uncertainty in the Cl2O2 photolysis reaction, which arises from uncertainty in laboratory-measured molecular cross sections at atmospherically important wavelengths. This estimated uncertainty in JCl2O2 from laboratory measurements seriously hinders our ability to model polar ozone loss within useful quantitative error limits. Atmospheric observations, however, suggest that the Cl2O2 photolysis uncertainty may be less than that derived from the lab data. Comparisons to Match, South Pole ozonesonde, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) data all show that the nominal recommended rate simulations agree with data within uncertainties when the Cl2O2 photolysis error is reduced by a factor of two, in line with previous in situ ClOx measurements. Comparisons to simulations using recent cross sections from Pope et al. (2007) are outside the constrained error bounds in each case. Other reactions producing significant sensitivity in polar ozone loss include BrO + ClO and its branching ratios. These uncertainties challenge our confidence in modeling polar ozone depletion and projecting future changes in response to changing halogen emissions and climate. Further laboratory, theoretical, and possibly atmospheric studies are needed. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic South pole South pole Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Antarctic Arctic South Pole The Antarctic Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 9 22 8651 8660 |
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Open Polar |
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Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
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ftnonlinearchiv |
language |
English |
topic |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
spellingShingle |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung Kawa, S. R. Stolarski, R. S. Newman, P. A. Douglass, A. R. Rex, M. Hofmann, D. J. Santee, M. L. Frieler, K. Sensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
The impact and significance of uncertainties in model calculations of stratospheric ozone loss resulting from known uncertainty in chemical kinetics parameters is evaluated in trajectory chemistry simulations for the Antarctic and Arctic polar vortices. The uncertainty in modeled ozone loss is derived from Monte Carlo scenario simulations varying the kinetic (reaction and photolysis rate) parameters within their estimated uncertainty bounds. Simulations of a typical winter/spring Antarctic vortex scenario and Match scenarios in the Arctic produce large uncertainty in ozone loss rates and integrated seasonal loss. The simulations clearly indicate that the dominant source of model uncertainty in polar ozone loss is uncertainty in the Cl2O2 photolysis reaction, which arises from uncertainty in laboratory-measured molecular cross sections at atmospherically important wavelengths. This estimated uncertainty in JCl2O2 from laboratory measurements seriously hinders our ability to model polar ozone loss within useful quantitative error limits. Atmospheric observations, however, suggest that the Cl2O2 photolysis uncertainty may be less than that derived from the lab data. Comparisons to Match, South Pole ozonesonde, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) data all show that the nominal recommended rate simulations agree with data within uncertainties when the Cl2O2 photolysis error is reduced by a factor of two, in line with previous in situ ClOx measurements. Comparisons to simulations using recent cross sections from Pope et al. (2007) are outside the constrained error bounds in each case. Other reactions producing significant sensitivity in polar ozone loss include BrO + ClO and its branching ratios. These uncertainties challenge our confidence in modeling polar ozone depletion and projecting future changes in response to changing halogen emissions and climate. Further laboratory, theoretical, and possibly atmospheric studies are needed. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kawa, S. R. Stolarski, R. S. Newman, P. A. Douglass, A. R. Rex, M. Hofmann, D. J. Santee, M. L. Frieler, K. |
author_facet |
Kawa, S. R. Stolarski, R. S. Newman, P. A. Douglass, A. R. Rex, M. Hofmann, D. J. Santee, M. L. Frieler, K. |
author_sort |
Kawa, S. R. |
title |
Sensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics |
title_short |
Sensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics |
title_full |
Sensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics |
title_fullStr |
Sensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics |
title_sort |
sensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-8651-2009 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00047517 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00047137/acp-9-8651-2009.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/9/8651/2009/acp-9-8651-2009.pdf |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic South Pole The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic South Pole The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic South pole South pole |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic South pole South pole |
op_relation |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics -- http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/volumes_and_issues.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2069847 -- 1680-7324 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-8651-2009 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00047517 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00047137/acp-9-8651-2009.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/9/8651/2009/acp-9-8651-2009.pdf |
op_rights |
uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-8651-2009 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
22 |
container_start_page |
8651 |
op_container_end_page |
8660 |
_version_ |
1766262492888039424 |