Quantitative assessment of Southern Hemisphere ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations
Stratospheric ozone recovery in the Southern Hemisphere is expected to drive pronounced trends in atmospheric temperature and circulation from the stratosphere to the troposphere in the 21st century; therefore ozone changes need to be accounted for in future climate simulations. Many climate models...
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00047396 2023-05-15T13:55:41+02:00 Quantitative assessment of Southern Hemisphere ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations Karpechko, A. Yu. Gillett, N. P. Hassler, B. Rosenlof, K. H. Rozanov, E. 2010-02 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-1385-2010 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00047396 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00047016/acp-10-1385-2010.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/10/1385/2010/acp-10-1385-2010.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics -- http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/volumes_and_issues.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2069847 -- 1680-7324 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-1385-2010 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00047396 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00047016/acp-10-1385-2010.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/10/1385/2010/acp-10-1385-2010.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2010 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-1385-2010 2022-02-08T22:38:30Z Stratospheric ozone recovery in the Southern Hemisphere is expected to drive pronounced trends in atmospheric temperature and circulation from the stratosphere to the troposphere in the 21st century; therefore ozone changes need to be accounted for in future climate simulations. Many climate models do not have interactive ozone chemistry and rely on prescribed ozone fields, which may be obtained from coupled chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations. However CCMs vary widely in their predictions of ozone evolution, complicating the selection of ozone boundary conditions for future climate simulations. In order to assess which models might be expected to better simulate future ozone evolution, and thus provide more realistic ozone boundary conditions, we assess the ability of twelve CCMs to simulate observed ozone climatology and trends and rank the models according to their errors averaged across the individual diagnostics chosen. According to our analysis no one model performs better than the others in all the diagnostics; however, combining errors in individual diagnostics into one metric of model performance allows us to objectively rank the models. The multi-model average shows better overall agreement with the observations than any individual model. Based on this analysis we conclude that the multi-model average ozone projection presents the best estimate of future ozone evolution and recommend it for use as a boundary condition in future climate simulations. Our results also demonstrate a sensitivity of the analysis to the choice of reference data set for vertical ozone distribution over the Antarctic, highlighting the constraints that large observational uncertainty imposes on such model verification. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Antarctic The Antarctic Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 10 3 1385 1400 |
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Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
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English |
topic |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Karpechko, A. Yu. Gillett, N. P. Hassler, B. Rosenlof, K. H. Rozanov, E. Quantitative assessment of Southern Hemisphere ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Stratospheric ozone recovery in the Southern Hemisphere is expected to drive pronounced trends in atmospheric temperature and circulation from the stratosphere to the troposphere in the 21st century; therefore ozone changes need to be accounted for in future climate simulations. Many climate models do not have interactive ozone chemistry and rely on prescribed ozone fields, which may be obtained from coupled chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations. However CCMs vary widely in their predictions of ozone evolution, complicating the selection of ozone boundary conditions for future climate simulations. In order to assess which models might be expected to better simulate future ozone evolution, and thus provide more realistic ozone boundary conditions, we assess the ability of twelve CCMs to simulate observed ozone climatology and trends and rank the models according to their errors averaged across the individual diagnostics chosen. According to our analysis no one model performs better than the others in all the diagnostics; however, combining errors in individual diagnostics into one metric of model performance allows us to objectively rank the models. The multi-model average shows better overall agreement with the observations than any individual model. Based on this analysis we conclude that the multi-model average ozone projection presents the best estimate of future ozone evolution and recommend it for use as a boundary condition in future climate simulations. Our results also demonstrate a sensitivity of the analysis to the choice of reference data set for vertical ozone distribution over the Antarctic, highlighting the constraints that large observational uncertainty imposes on such model verification. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Karpechko, A. Yu. Gillett, N. P. Hassler, B. Rosenlof, K. H. Rozanov, E. |
author_facet |
Karpechko, A. Yu. Gillett, N. P. Hassler, B. Rosenlof, K. H. Rozanov, E. |
author_sort |
Karpechko, A. Yu. |
title |
Quantitative assessment of Southern Hemisphere ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations |
title_short |
Quantitative assessment of Southern Hemisphere ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations |
title_full |
Quantitative assessment of Southern Hemisphere ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations |
title_fullStr |
Quantitative assessment of Southern Hemisphere ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Quantitative assessment of Southern Hemisphere ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations |
title_sort |
quantitative assessment of southern hemisphere ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-1385-2010 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00047396 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00047016/acp-10-1385-2010.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/10/1385/2010/acp-10-1385-2010.pdf |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_relation |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics -- http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/volumes_and_issues.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2069847 -- 1680-7324 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-1385-2010 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00047396 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00047016/acp-10-1385-2010.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/10/1385/2010/acp-10-1385-2010.pdf |
op_rights |
uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-1385-2010 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
1385 |
op_container_end_page |
1400 |
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1766262493608411136 |