Determination of time- and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption
The April–May, 2010 volcanic eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland caused significant economic and social disruption in Europe whilst state of the art measurements and ash dispersion forecasts were heavily criticized by the aviation industry. Here we demonstrate for the first time that large improv...
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2011
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00046639 2023-05-15T16:09:32+02:00 Determination of time- and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption Stohl, A. Prata, A. J. Eckhardt, S. Clarisse, L. Durant, A. Henne, S. Kristiansen, N. I. Minikin, A. Schumann, U. Seibert, P. Stebel, K. Thomas, H. E. Thorsteinsson, T. Tørseth, K. Weinzierl, B. 2011-05 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4333-2011 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00046639 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00046259/acp-11-4333-2011.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/11/4333/2011/acp-11-4333-2011.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics -- http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/volumes_and_issues.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2069847 -- 1680-7324 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4333-2011 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00046639 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00046259/acp-11-4333-2011.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/11/4333/2011/acp-11-4333-2011.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2011 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4333-2011 2022-02-08T22:38:57Z The April–May, 2010 volcanic eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland caused significant economic and social disruption in Europe whilst state of the art measurements and ash dispersion forecasts were heavily criticized by the aviation industry. Here we demonstrate for the first time that large improvements can be made in quantitative predictions of the fate of volcanic ash emissions, by using an inversion scheme that couples a priori source information and the output of a Lagrangian dispersion model with satellite data to estimate the volcanic ash source strength as a function of altitude and time. From the inversion, we obtain a total fine ash emission of the eruption of 8.3 ± 4.2 Tg for particles in the size range of 2.8–28 μm diameter. We evaluate the results of our model results with a posteriori ash emissions using independent ground-based, airborne and space-borne measurements both in case studies and statistically. Subsequently, we estimate the area over Europe affected by volcanic ash above certain concentration thresholds relevant for the aviation industry. We find that during three episodes in April and May, volcanic ash concentrations at some altitude in the atmosphere exceeded the limits for the "Normal" flying zone in up to 14 % (6–16 %), 2 % (1–3 %) and 7 % (4–11 %), respectively, of the European area. For a limit of 2 mg m−3 only two episodes with fractions of 1.5 % (0.2–2.8 %) and 0.9 % (0.1–1.6 %) occurred, while the current "No-Fly" zone criterion of 4 mg m−3 was rarely exceeded. Our results have important ramifications for determining air space closures and for real-time quantitative estimations of ash concentrations. Furthermore, the general nature of our method yields better constraints on the distribution and fate of volcanic ash in the Earth system. Article in Journal/Newspaper Eyjafjallajökull Iceland Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 11 9 4333 4351 |
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English |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Stohl, A. Prata, A. J. Eckhardt, S. Clarisse, L. Durant, A. Henne, S. Kristiansen, N. I. Minikin, A. Schumann, U. Seibert, P. Stebel, K. Thomas, H. E. Thorsteinsson, T. Tørseth, K. Weinzierl, B. Determination of time- and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
The April–May, 2010 volcanic eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland caused significant economic and social disruption in Europe whilst state of the art measurements and ash dispersion forecasts were heavily criticized by the aviation industry. Here we demonstrate for the first time that large improvements can be made in quantitative predictions of the fate of volcanic ash emissions, by using an inversion scheme that couples a priori source information and the output of a Lagrangian dispersion model with satellite data to estimate the volcanic ash source strength as a function of altitude and time. From the inversion, we obtain a total fine ash emission of the eruption of 8.3 ± 4.2 Tg for particles in the size range of 2.8–28 μm diameter. We evaluate the results of our model results with a posteriori ash emissions using independent ground-based, airborne and space-borne measurements both in case studies and statistically. Subsequently, we estimate the area over Europe affected by volcanic ash above certain concentration thresholds relevant for the aviation industry. We find that during three episodes in April and May, volcanic ash concentrations at some altitude in the atmosphere exceeded the limits for the "Normal" flying zone in up to 14 % (6–16 %), 2 % (1–3 %) and 7 % (4–11 %), respectively, of the European area. For a limit of 2 mg m−3 only two episodes with fractions of 1.5 % (0.2–2.8 %) and 0.9 % (0.1–1.6 %) occurred, while the current "No-Fly" zone criterion of 4 mg m−3 was rarely exceeded. Our results have important ramifications for determining air space closures and for real-time quantitative estimations of ash concentrations. Furthermore, the general nature of our method yields better constraints on the distribution and fate of volcanic ash in the Earth system. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Stohl, A. Prata, A. J. Eckhardt, S. Clarisse, L. Durant, A. Henne, S. Kristiansen, N. I. Minikin, A. Schumann, U. Seibert, P. Stebel, K. Thomas, H. E. Thorsteinsson, T. Tørseth, K. Weinzierl, B. |
author_facet |
Stohl, A. Prata, A. J. Eckhardt, S. Clarisse, L. Durant, A. Henne, S. Kristiansen, N. I. Minikin, A. Schumann, U. Seibert, P. Stebel, K. Thomas, H. E. Thorsteinsson, T. Tørseth, K. Weinzierl, B. |
author_sort |
Stohl, A. |
title |
Determination of time- and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption |
title_short |
Determination of time- and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption |
title_full |
Determination of time- and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption |
title_fullStr |
Determination of time- and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption |
title_full_unstemmed |
Determination of time- and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption |
title_sort |
determination of time- and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 eyjafjallajökull eruption |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4333-2011 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00046639 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00046259/acp-11-4333-2011.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/11/4333/2011/acp-11-4333-2011.pdf |
genre |
Eyjafjallajökull Iceland |
genre_facet |
Eyjafjallajökull Iceland |
op_relation |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics -- http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/volumes_and_issues.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2069847 -- 1680-7324 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4333-2011 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00046639 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00046259/acp-11-4333-2011.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/11/4333/2011/acp-11-4333-2011.pdf |
op_rights |
uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4333-2011 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
4333 |
op_container_end_page |
4351 |
_version_ |
1766405402310737920 |