Evolution of Antarctic ozone in September–December predicted by CCMVal-2 model simulations for the 21st century
Chemistry-Climate Model Validation phase 2 (CCMVal-2) model simulations are used to analyze Antarctic ozone increases in 2000–2100 during local spring and early summer, both vertically integrated and at several pressure levels in the lower stratosphere. Multi-model median trends of monthly zonal mea...
Published in: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2013
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4413-2013 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00045623 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00045243/acp-13-4413-2013.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/13/4413/2013/acp-13-4413-2013.pdf |
id |
ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00045623 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00045623 2023-05-15T13:55:42+02:00 Evolution of Antarctic ozone in September–December predicted by CCMVal-2 model simulations for the 21st century Siddaway, J. M. Petelina, S. V. Karoly, D. J. Klekociuk, A. R. Dargaville, R. J. 2013-04 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4413-2013 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00045623 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00045243/acp-13-4413-2013.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/13/4413/2013/acp-13-4413-2013.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics -- http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/volumes_and_issues.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2069847 -- 1680-7324 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4413-2013 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00045623 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00045243/acp-13-4413-2013.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/13/4413/2013/acp-13-4413-2013.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2013 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4413-2013 2022-02-08T22:39:27Z Chemistry-Climate Model Validation phase 2 (CCMVal-2) model simulations are used to analyze Antarctic ozone increases in 2000–2100 during local spring and early summer, both vertically integrated and at several pressure levels in the lower stratosphere. Multi-model median trends of monthly zonal mean total ozone column (TOC), ozone volume mixing ratio (VMR), wind speed and temperature poleward of 60° S are investigated. Median values are used to account for large variability in models, and the associated uncertainty is calculated using a bootstrapping technique. According to the trend derived from the twelve CCMVal-2 models selected, Antarctic TOC will not return to a 1965 baseline, an average of 1960–1969 values, by the end of the 21st century in September–November, but will return in ~2080 in December. The speed of December ozone depletion before 2000 was slower compared to spring months, and thus the decadal rate of December TOC increase after 2000 is also slower. Projected trends in December ozone VMR at 20–100 hPa show a much slower rate of ozone recovery, particularly at 50–70 hPa, than for spring months. Trends in temperature and winds at 20–150 hPa are also analyzed in order to attribute the projected slow increase of December ozone and to investigate future changes in the Antarctic atmosphere in general, including some aspects of the polar vortex breakup. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Antarctic The Antarctic Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 13 8 4413 4427 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
op_collection_id |
ftnonlinearchiv |
language |
English |
topic |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
spellingShingle |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung Siddaway, J. M. Petelina, S. V. Karoly, D. J. Klekociuk, A. R. Dargaville, R. J. Evolution of Antarctic ozone in September–December predicted by CCMVal-2 model simulations for the 21st century |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Chemistry-Climate Model Validation phase 2 (CCMVal-2) model simulations are used to analyze Antarctic ozone increases in 2000–2100 during local spring and early summer, both vertically integrated and at several pressure levels in the lower stratosphere. Multi-model median trends of monthly zonal mean total ozone column (TOC), ozone volume mixing ratio (VMR), wind speed and temperature poleward of 60° S are investigated. Median values are used to account for large variability in models, and the associated uncertainty is calculated using a bootstrapping technique. According to the trend derived from the twelve CCMVal-2 models selected, Antarctic TOC will not return to a 1965 baseline, an average of 1960–1969 values, by the end of the 21st century in September–November, but will return in ~2080 in December. The speed of December ozone depletion before 2000 was slower compared to spring months, and thus the decadal rate of December TOC increase after 2000 is also slower. Projected trends in December ozone VMR at 20–100 hPa show a much slower rate of ozone recovery, particularly at 50–70 hPa, than for spring months. Trends in temperature and winds at 20–150 hPa are also analyzed in order to attribute the projected slow increase of December ozone and to investigate future changes in the Antarctic atmosphere in general, including some aspects of the polar vortex breakup. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Siddaway, J. M. Petelina, S. V. Karoly, D. J. Klekociuk, A. R. Dargaville, R. J. |
author_facet |
Siddaway, J. M. Petelina, S. V. Karoly, D. J. Klekociuk, A. R. Dargaville, R. J. |
author_sort |
Siddaway, J. M. |
title |
Evolution of Antarctic ozone in September–December predicted by CCMVal-2 model simulations for the 21st century |
title_short |
Evolution of Antarctic ozone in September–December predicted by CCMVal-2 model simulations for the 21st century |
title_full |
Evolution of Antarctic ozone in September–December predicted by CCMVal-2 model simulations for the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
Evolution of Antarctic ozone in September–December predicted by CCMVal-2 model simulations for the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evolution of Antarctic ozone in September–December predicted by CCMVal-2 model simulations for the 21st century |
title_sort |
evolution of antarctic ozone in september–december predicted by ccmval-2 model simulations for the 21st century |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4413-2013 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00045623 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00045243/acp-13-4413-2013.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/13/4413/2013/acp-13-4413-2013.pdf |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_relation |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics -- http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/volumes_and_issues.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2069847 -- 1680-7324 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4413-2013 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00045623 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00045243/acp-13-4413-2013.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/13/4413/2013/acp-13-4413-2013.pdf |
op_rights |
uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4413-2013 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
4413 |
op_container_end_page |
4427 |
_version_ |
1766262504102559744 |