Dynamic climate emulators for solar geoengineering
Climate emulators trained on existing simulations can be used to project project the climate effects that result from different possible future pathways of anthropogenic forcing, without further relying on general circulation model (GCM) simulations. We extend this idea to include different amounts...
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00042881 2023-05-15T18:17:46+02:00 Dynamic climate emulators for solar geoengineering MacMartin, Douglas G. Kravitz, Ben 2016-12 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15789-2016 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00042881 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00042501/acp-16-15789-2016.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/15789/2016/acp-16-15789-2016.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics -- http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/volumes_and_issues.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2069847 -- 1680-7324 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15789-2016 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00042881 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00042501/acp-16-15789-2016.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/15789/2016/acp-16-15789-2016.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2016 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15789-2016 2022-02-08T22:40:52Z Climate emulators trained on existing simulations can be used to project project the climate effects that result from different possible future pathways of anthropogenic forcing, without further relying on general circulation model (GCM) simulations. We extend this idea to include different amounts of solar geoengineering in addition to different pathways of greenhouse gas concentrations, by training emulators from a multi-model ensemble of simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The emulator is trained on the abrupt 4 × CO2 and a compensating solar reduction simulation (G1), and evaluated by comparing predictions against a simulated 1 % per year CO2 increase and a similarly smaller solar reduction (G2). We find reasonable agreement in most models for predicting changes in temperature and precipitation (including regional effects), and annual-mean Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent, with the difference between simulation and prediction typically being smaller than natural variability. This verifies that the linearity assumption used in constructing the emulator is sufficient for these variables over the range of forcing considered. Annual-minimum Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent is less well predicted, indicating a limit to the linearity assumption. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 16 24 15789 15799 |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung MacMartin, Douglas G. Kravitz, Ben Dynamic climate emulators for solar geoengineering |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Climate emulators trained on existing simulations can be used to project project the climate effects that result from different possible future pathways of anthropogenic forcing, without further relying on general circulation model (GCM) simulations. We extend this idea to include different amounts of solar geoengineering in addition to different pathways of greenhouse gas concentrations, by training emulators from a multi-model ensemble of simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The emulator is trained on the abrupt 4 × CO2 and a compensating solar reduction simulation (G1), and evaluated by comparing predictions against a simulated 1 % per year CO2 increase and a similarly smaller solar reduction (G2). We find reasonable agreement in most models for predicting changes in temperature and precipitation (including regional effects), and annual-mean Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent, with the difference between simulation and prediction typically being smaller than natural variability. This verifies that the linearity assumption used in constructing the emulator is sufficient for these variables over the range of forcing considered. Annual-minimum Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent is less well predicted, indicating a limit to the linearity assumption. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
MacMartin, Douglas G. Kravitz, Ben |
author_facet |
MacMartin, Douglas G. Kravitz, Ben |
author_sort |
MacMartin, Douglas G. |
title |
Dynamic climate emulators for solar geoengineering |
title_short |
Dynamic climate emulators for solar geoengineering |
title_full |
Dynamic climate emulators for solar geoengineering |
title_fullStr |
Dynamic climate emulators for solar geoengineering |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dynamic climate emulators for solar geoengineering |
title_sort |
dynamic climate emulators for solar geoengineering |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15789-2016 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00042881 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00042501/acp-16-15789-2016.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/15789/2016/acp-16-15789-2016.pdf |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_relation |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics -- http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/volumes_and_issues.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2069847 -- 1680-7324 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15789-2016 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00042881 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00042501/acp-16-15789-2016.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/15789/2016/acp-16-15789-2016.pdf |
op_rights |
uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15789-2016 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
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16 |
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24 |
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15789 |
op_container_end_page |
15799 |
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1766192951638097920 |