Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000
A new, powerful statistical technique, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), is applied to reproduce monthly fractional deviations of UV-B doses over Belsk, Poland, during the snowless (May–October) part of the year in the period 1976–2000. Two kinds of regressors were used: local ones (t...
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00035348 2023-05-15T17:34:37+02:00 Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000 Krzyścin, J. W. 2003-08 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-21-1887-2003 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00035348 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00035302/angeo-21-1887-2003.pdf https://angeo.copernicus.org/articles/21/1887/2003/angeo-21-1887-2003.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Annales Geophysicae -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?1458425 -- https://www.ann-geophys.net/ -- https://www.ann-geophys.net/volumes.html -- http://link.springer.com/journal/585 -- 1432-0576 https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-21-1887-2003 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00035348 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00035302/angeo-21-1887-2003.pdf https://angeo.copernicus.org/articles/21/1887/2003/angeo-21-1887-2003.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2003 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-21-1887-2003 2022-02-08T22:44:46Z A new, powerful statistical technique, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), is applied to reproduce monthly fractional deviations of UV-B doses over Belsk, Poland, during the snowless (May–October) part of the year in the period 1976–2000. Two kinds of regressors were used: local ones (total ozone, percentage of sky covered by low-, mid-, high-level clouds or total solar radiation over Belsk) and non-local ones, i.e. those describing the long-distance forcings on the surface UV-B due to changes in the global atmospheric circulation. Standard indices of the Quasi-Biennial, North Atlantic, El Niño-Southern Oscillations, and the 11-year solar activity were used as non-local regressors. The results there indicate that the MARS procedure is able to reproduce the observed year-to-year and decadal oscillations in the UV data. The MARS model yields better model-observation agreement than an ordinary least-squares fit based on the same set of regressors. It is found that MARS is capable of handling interactions between the local and non-local regressors, suggesting a possible nonlinear nature of connections between variables characterizing the atmospheric transparency over Belsk and the long-distance forcings. MARS enables a reconstruction of the surface UV-B variations over any site based on the cloud and ozone data presently stored on web pages. Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (aerosols and particles; biosphere-atmosphere interactions) Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Annales Geophysicae 21 8 1887 1896 |
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English |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Krzyścin, J. W. Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000 |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
A new, powerful statistical technique, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), is applied to reproduce monthly fractional deviations of UV-B doses over Belsk, Poland, during the snowless (May–October) part of the year in the period 1976–2000. Two kinds of regressors were used: local ones (total ozone, percentage of sky covered by low-, mid-, high-level clouds or total solar radiation over Belsk) and non-local ones, i.e. those describing the long-distance forcings on the surface UV-B due to changes in the global atmospheric circulation. Standard indices of the Quasi-Biennial, North Atlantic, El Niño-Southern Oscillations, and the 11-year solar activity were used as non-local regressors. The results there indicate that the MARS procedure is able to reproduce the observed year-to-year and decadal oscillations in the UV data. The MARS model yields better model-observation agreement than an ordinary least-squares fit based on the same set of regressors. It is found that MARS is capable of handling interactions between the local and non-local regressors, suggesting a possible nonlinear nature of connections between variables characterizing the atmospheric transparency over Belsk and the long-distance forcings. MARS enables a reconstruction of the surface UV-B variations over any site based on the cloud and ozone data presently stored on web pages. Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (aerosols and particles; biosphere-atmosphere interactions) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Krzyścin, J. W. |
author_facet |
Krzyścin, J. W. |
author_sort |
Krzyścin, J. W. |
title |
Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000 |
title_short |
Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000 |
title_full |
Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000 |
title_fullStr |
Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000 |
title_sort |
nonlinear (mars) modeling of long-term variations of surface uv-b radiation as revealed from the analysis of belsk, poland data for the period 1976–2000 |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2003 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-21-1887-2003 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00035348 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00035302/angeo-21-1887-2003.pdf https://angeo.copernicus.org/articles/21/1887/2003/angeo-21-1887-2003.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
Annales Geophysicae -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?1458425 -- https://www.ann-geophys.net/ -- https://www.ann-geophys.net/volumes.html -- http://link.springer.com/journal/585 -- 1432-0576 https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-21-1887-2003 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00035348 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00035302/angeo-21-1887-2003.pdf https://angeo.copernicus.org/articles/21/1887/2003/angeo-21-1887-2003.pdf |
op_rights |
uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-21-1887-2003 |
container_title |
Annales Geophysicae |
container_volume |
21 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
1887 |
op_container_end_page |
1896 |
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1766133510861488128 |