Nonlinear sea level trends from European tide gauge records
Mean sea level is a variable of considerable interest in meteorological and oceanographic studies, particularly long-term sea level variation and its relation to climate changes. This study concerns the analysis of monthly mean sea level data from tide gauge stations in the Northeast Atlantic with l...
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00034939 2023-05-15T17:41:28+02:00 Nonlinear sea level trends from European tide gauge records Barbosa, S. M. Fernandes, M. J. Silva, M. E. 2004-04 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-22-1465-2004 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00034939 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00034893/angeo-22-1465-2004.pdf https://angeo.copernicus.org/articles/22/1465/2004/angeo-22-1465-2004.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Annales Geophysicae -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?1458425 -- https://www.ann-geophys.net/ -- https://www.ann-geophys.net/volumes.html -- http://link.springer.com/journal/585 -- 1432-0576 https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-22-1465-2004 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00034939 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00034893/angeo-22-1465-2004.pdf https://angeo.copernicus.org/articles/22/1465/2004/angeo-22-1465-2004.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2004 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-22-1465-2004 2022-02-08T22:44:59Z Mean sea level is a variable of considerable interest in meteorological and oceanographic studies, particularly long-term sea level variation and its relation to climate changes. This study concerns the analysis of monthly mean sea level data from tide gauge stations in the Northeast Atlantic with long and continuous records. Much research effort on mean sea level studies has been focused on identifying long-term linear trends, usually estimated through least-squares fitting of a deterministic function. Here, we estimate nonparametric and robust trends using lowess, a robust smoothing procedure based on locally weighted regression. This approach is more flexible than a linear trend to describe the deterministic part of the variation in tide gauge records, which has a complex structure. A common trend pattern of reduced sea levels around 1975 is found in all the analysed records and interpreted as the result of hydrological and atmospheric forcing associated with drought conditions at the tide gauge sites. This feature is overlooked by a linear regression model. Moreover, nonlinear deterministic behaviour in the time series, such as the one identified, introduces a bias in linear trends determined from short and noisy records. Key words. Oceanography: physical (sea level variations); Hydrology (water balance) Article in Journal/Newspaper Northeast Atlantic Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Annales Geophysicae 22 5 1465 1472 |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Barbosa, S. M. Fernandes, M. J. Silva, M. E. Nonlinear sea level trends from European tide gauge records |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Mean sea level is a variable of considerable interest in meteorological and oceanographic studies, particularly long-term sea level variation and its relation to climate changes. This study concerns the analysis of monthly mean sea level data from tide gauge stations in the Northeast Atlantic with long and continuous records. Much research effort on mean sea level studies has been focused on identifying long-term linear trends, usually estimated through least-squares fitting of a deterministic function. Here, we estimate nonparametric and robust trends using lowess, a robust smoothing procedure based on locally weighted regression. This approach is more flexible than a linear trend to describe the deterministic part of the variation in tide gauge records, which has a complex structure. A common trend pattern of reduced sea levels around 1975 is found in all the analysed records and interpreted as the result of hydrological and atmospheric forcing associated with drought conditions at the tide gauge sites. This feature is overlooked by a linear regression model. Moreover, nonlinear deterministic behaviour in the time series, such as the one identified, introduces a bias in linear trends determined from short and noisy records. Key words. Oceanography: physical (sea level variations); Hydrology (water balance) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Barbosa, S. M. Fernandes, M. J. Silva, M. E. |
author_facet |
Barbosa, S. M. Fernandes, M. J. Silva, M. E. |
author_sort |
Barbosa, S. M. |
title |
Nonlinear sea level trends from European tide gauge records |
title_short |
Nonlinear sea level trends from European tide gauge records |
title_full |
Nonlinear sea level trends from European tide gauge records |
title_fullStr |
Nonlinear sea level trends from European tide gauge records |
title_full_unstemmed |
Nonlinear sea level trends from European tide gauge records |
title_sort |
nonlinear sea level trends from european tide gauge records |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2004 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-22-1465-2004 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00034939 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00034893/angeo-22-1465-2004.pdf https://angeo.copernicus.org/articles/22/1465/2004/angeo-22-1465-2004.pdf |
genre |
Northeast Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Northeast Atlantic |
op_relation |
Annales Geophysicae -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?1458425 -- https://www.ann-geophys.net/ -- https://www.ann-geophys.net/volumes.html -- http://link.springer.com/journal/585 -- 1432-0576 https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-22-1465-2004 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00034939 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00034893/angeo-22-1465-2004.pdf https://angeo.copernicus.org/articles/22/1465/2004/angeo-22-1465-2004.pdf |
op_rights |
uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-22-1465-2004 |
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Annales Geophysicae |
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22 |
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5 |
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1465 |
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1472 |
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