How unusual was late 20th century El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Assessing evidence from tree-ring, coral, ice-core and documentary palaeoarchives, A.D. 1525-2002
Multiple proxy records (tree-ring, coral, ice and documentary) were examined to isolate ENSO signals associated with both phases of the phenomenon for the period A.D. 1525-2002. To avoid making large-scale inferences from single proxy analysis, regional signals were aggregated into a network of high...
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00033571 2023-05-15T16:39:13+02:00 How unusual was late 20th century El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Assessing evidence from tree-ring, coral, ice-core and documentary palaeoarchives, A.D. 1525-2002 Gergis, J. L. Fowler, A. M. 2006-02 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-6-173-2006 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00033571 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00033525/adgeo-6-173-2006.pdf https://adgeo.copernicus.org/articles/6/173/2006/adgeo-6-173-2006.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Advances in Geosciences -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2625759 -- http://www.adv-geosci.net/volumes.html -- 1680-7359 https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-6-173-2006 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00033571 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00033525/adgeo-6-173-2006.pdf https://adgeo.copernicus.org/articles/6/173/2006/adgeo-6-173-2006.pdf https://open-access.net/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2006 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-6-173-2006 2022-02-08T22:45:42Z Multiple proxy records (tree-ring, coral, ice and documentary) were examined to isolate ENSO signals associated with both phases of the phenomenon for the period A.D. 1525-2002. To avoid making large-scale inferences from single proxy analysis, regional signals were aggregated into a network of high-resolution records, revealing large-scale trends in the frequency, magnitude and duration of pre-instrumental ENSO using novel applications of percentile analysis. Here we use the newly introduced coupled ocean-atmosphere ENSO index (CEI) as a baseline for the calibration of proxy records. The reconstruction revealed 83 extreme or very strong ENSO episodes since A.D. 1525, expanding considerably on existing ENSO event chronologies. Significantly, excerpts of the most comprehensive list of La Niña events complied to date are presented, indicating peak activity during the 16th to mid 17th and 20th centuries. Although extreme events are seen throughout the 478-year reconstruction, 43% of the extreme ENSO events noted since A.D. 1525 occur during the 20th century, with an obvious bias towards enhanced El Niño conditions in recent decades. Of the total number of extreme event years reconstructed, 30% of all reconstructed ENSO event years occur post-1940 alone suggesting that recent ENSO variability appears anomalous in the context of the past five centuries. Article in Journal/Newspaper ice core Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Advances in Geosciences 6 173 179 |
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Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
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English |
topic |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Gergis, J. L. Fowler, A. M. How unusual was late 20th century El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Assessing evidence from tree-ring, coral, ice-core and documentary palaeoarchives, A.D. 1525-2002 |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Multiple proxy records (tree-ring, coral, ice and documentary) were examined to isolate ENSO signals associated with both phases of the phenomenon for the period A.D. 1525-2002. To avoid making large-scale inferences from single proxy analysis, regional signals were aggregated into a network of high-resolution records, revealing large-scale trends in the frequency, magnitude and duration of pre-instrumental ENSO using novel applications of percentile analysis. Here we use the newly introduced coupled ocean-atmosphere ENSO index (CEI) as a baseline for the calibration of proxy records. The reconstruction revealed 83 extreme or very strong ENSO episodes since A.D. 1525, expanding considerably on existing ENSO event chronologies. Significantly, excerpts of the most comprehensive list of La Niña events complied to date are presented, indicating peak activity during the 16th to mid 17th and 20th centuries. Although extreme events are seen throughout the 478-year reconstruction, 43% of the extreme ENSO events noted since A.D. 1525 occur during the 20th century, with an obvious bias towards enhanced El Niño conditions in recent decades. Of the total number of extreme event years reconstructed, 30% of all reconstructed ENSO event years occur post-1940 alone suggesting that recent ENSO variability appears anomalous in the context of the past five centuries. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gergis, J. L. Fowler, A. M. |
author_facet |
Gergis, J. L. Fowler, A. M. |
author_sort |
Gergis, J. L. |
title |
How unusual was late 20th century El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Assessing evidence from tree-ring, coral, ice-core and documentary palaeoarchives, A.D. 1525-2002 |
title_short |
How unusual was late 20th century El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Assessing evidence from tree-ring, coral, ice-core and documentary palaeoarchives, A.D. 1525-2002 |
title_full |
How unusual was late 20th century El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Assessing evidence from tree-ring, coral, ice-core and documentary palaeoarchives, A.D. 1525-2002 |
title_fullStr |
How unusual was late 20th century El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Assessing evidence from tree-ring, coral, ice-core and documentary palaeoarchives, A.D. 1525-2002 |
title_full_unstemmed |
How unusual was late 20th century El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Assessing evidence from tree-ring, coral, ice-core and documentary palaeoarchives, A.D. 1525-2002 |
title_sort |
how unusual was late 20th century el niño-southern oscillation (enso)? assessing evidence from tree-ring, coral, ice-core and documentary palaeoarchives, a.d. 1525-2002 |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-6-173-2006 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00033571 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00033525/adgeo-6-173-2006.pdf https://adgeo.copernicus.org/articles/6/173/2006/adgeo-6-173-2006.pdf |
genre |
ice core |
genre_facet |
ice core |
op_relation |
Advances in Geosciences -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2625759 -- http://www.adv-geosci.net/volumes.html -- 1680-7359 https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-6-173-2006 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00033571 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00033525/adgeo-6-173-2006.pdf https://adgeo.copernicus.org/articles/6/173/2006/adgeo-6-173-2006.pdf |
op_rights |
https://open-access.net/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-6-173-2006 |
container_title |
Advances in Geosciences |
container_volume |
6 |
container_start_page |
173 |
op_container_end_page |
179 |
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1766029555955400704 |