Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr
We develop and apply a new statistical method of potential analysis for detecting the number of states of a geophysical system, from its recorded time series. Estimation of the degree of a polynomial potential allows us to derive the number of potential wells in a system. The method correctly detect...
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00029246 2023-05-15T16:27:13+02:00 Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr Livina, V. N. Kwasniok, F. Lenton, T. M. 2010-02 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-77-2010 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00029246 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00029201/cp-6-77-2010.pdf https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/6/77/2010/cp-6-77-2010.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Climate of the Past -- http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/cp/cp/published_papers.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2217985 -- 1814-9332 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-77-2010 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00029246 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00029201/cp-6-77-2010.pdf https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/6/77/2010/cp-6-77-2010.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2010 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-77-2010 2022-02-08T22:47:49Z We develop and apply a new statistical method of potential analysis for detecting the number of states of a geophysical system, from its recorded time series. Estimation of the degree of a polynomial potential allows us to derive the number of potential wells in a system. The method correctly detects changes in the number of wells in artificial data. In ice-core proxy records of Greenland paleotemperature, a reduction in the number of climate states from two to one is detected sometime prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM), 23–19 kyr BP. This result is also found in analysis of Greenland Ca data. The bifurcation can be interpreted as loss of stability of the warm interstadial state of the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The proposed method can be applied to a wide range of geophysical time series exhibiting bifurcations. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland ice core Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Greenland Climate of the Past 6 1 77 82 |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Livina, V. N. Kwasniok, F. Lenton, T. M. Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
We develop and apply a new statistical method of potential analysis for detecting the number of states of a geophysical system, from its recorded time series. Estimation of the degree of a polynomial potential allows us to derive the number of potential wells in a system. The method correctly detects changes in the number of wells in artificial data. In ice-core proxy records of Greenland paleotemperature, a reduction in the number of climate states from two to one is detected sometime prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM), 23–19 kyr BP. This result is also found in analysis of Greenland Ca data. The bifurcation can be interpreted as loss of stability of the warm interstadial state of the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The proposed method can be applied to a wide range of geophysical time series exhibiting bifurcations. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Livina, V. N. Kwasniok, F. Lenton, T. M. |
author_facet |
Livina, V. N. Kwasniok, F. Lenton, T. M. |
author_sort |
Livina, V. N. |
title |
Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr |
title_short |
Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr |
title_full |
Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr |
title_fullStr |
Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr |
title_full_unstemmed |
Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr |
title_sort |
potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-77-2010 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00029246 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00029201/cp-6-77-2010.pdf https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/6/77/2010/cp-6-77-2010.pdf |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland ice core |
genre_facet |
Greenland ice core |
op_relation |
Climate of the Past -- http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/cp/cp/published_papers.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2217985 -- 1814-9332 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-77-2010 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00029246 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00029201/cp-6-77-2010.pdf https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/6/77/2010/cp-6-77-2010.pdf |
op_rights |
uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-77-2010 |
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Climate of the Past |
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6 |
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1 |
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77 |
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82 |
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