Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event

The northeast coast of North America is frequently hit by severe ice storms. These freezing rain events can produce large ice accretions that damage structures, frequently power transmission and distribution infrastructure. For this reason, it is highly desirable to model and forecast such icing eve...

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Published in:Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Main Authors: Hosek, J., Musilek, P., Lozowski, E., Pytlak, P.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2011
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-587-2011
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spelling ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00027781 2023-05-15T17:21:46+02:00 Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event Hosek, J. Musilek, P. Lozowski, E. Pytlak, P. 2011-02 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-587-2011 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00027781 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00027736/nhess-11-587-2011.pdf https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/11/587/2011/nhess-11-587-2011.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2064587 -- http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/ -- 1684-9981 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-587-2011 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00027781 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00027736/nhess-11-587-2011.pdf https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/11/587/2011/nhess-11-587-2011.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2011 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-587-2011 2022-02-08T22:48:32Z The northeast coast of North America is frequently hit by severe ice storms. These freezing rain events can produce large ice accretions that damage structures, frequently power transmission and distribution infrastructure. For this reason, it is highly desirable to model and forecast such icing events, so that the consequent damages can be prevented or mitigated. The case study presented in this paper focuses on the March 2010 ice storm event that took place in eastern Newfoundland. We apply a combination of a numerical weather prediction model and an ice accretion algorithm to simulate a forecast of this event. The main goals of this study are to compare the simulated meteorological variables to observations, and to assess the ability of the model to accurately predict the ice accretion load for different forecast horizons. The duration and timing of the freezing rain event that occurred between the night of 4 March and the morning of 6 March was simulated well in all model runs. The total precipitation amounts in the model, however, differed by up to a factor of two from the observations. The accuracy of the model air temperature strongly depended on the forecast horizon, but it was acceptable for all simulation runs. The simulated accretion loads were also compared to the design values for power delivery structures in the region. The results indicated that the simulated values exceeded design criteria in the areas of reported damage and power outages. Article in Journal/Newspaper Newfoundland Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 11 2 587 595
institution Open Polar
collection Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA
op_collection_id ftnonlinearchiv
language English
topic article
Verlagsveröffentlichung
spellingShingle article
Verlagsveröffentlichung
Hosek, J.
Musilek, P.
Lozowski, E.
Pytlak, P.
Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event
topic_facet article
Verlagsveröffentlichung
description The northeast coast of North America is frequently hit by severe ice storms. These freezing rain events can produce large ice accretions that damage structures, frequently power transmission and distribution infrastructure. For this reason, it is highly desirable to model and forecast such icing events, so that the consequent damages can be prevented or mitigated. The case study presented in this paper focuses on the March 2010 ice storm event that took place in eastern Newfoundland. We apply a combination of a numerical weather prediction model and an ice accretion algorithm to simulate a forecast of this event. The main goals of this study are to compare the simulated meteorological variables to observations, and to assess the ability of the model to accurately predict the ice accretion load for different forecast horizons. The duration and timing of the freezing rain event that occurred between the night of 4 March and the morning of 6 March was simulated well in all model runs. The total precipitation amounts in the model, however, differed by up to a factor of two from the observations. The accuracy of the model air temperature strongly depended on the forecast horizon, but it was acceptable for all simulation runs. The simulated accretion loads were also compared to the design values for power delivery structures in the region. The results indicated that the simulated values exceeded design criteria in the areas of reported damage and power outages.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Hosek, J.
Musilek, P.
Lozowski, E.
Pytlak, P.
author_facet Hosek, J.
Musilek, P.
Lozowski, E.
Pytlak, P.
author_sort Hosek, J.
title Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event
title_short Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event
title_full Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event
title_fullStr Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event
title_full_unstemmed Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event
title_sort forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the march 2010 newfoundland event
publisher Copernicus Publications
publishDate 2011
url https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-587-2011
https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00027781
https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00027736/nhess-11-587-2011.pdf
https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/11/587/2011/nhess-11-587-2011.pdf
genre Newfoundland
genre_facet Newfoundland
op_relation Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2064587 -- http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/ -- 1684-9981
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-587-2011
https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00027781
https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00027736/nhess-11-587-2011.pdf
https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/11/587/2011/nhess-11-587-2011.pdf
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op_doi https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-587-2011
container_title Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
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container_start_page 587
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