Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event
The northeast coast of North America is frequently hit by severe ice storms. These freezing rain events can produce large ice accretions that damage structures, frequently power transmission and distribution infrastructure. For this reason, it is highly desirable to model and forecast such icing eve...
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00027781 2023-05-15T17:21:46+02:00 Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event Hosek, J. Musilek, P. Lozowski, E. Pytlak, P. 2011-02 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-587-2011 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00027781 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00027736/nhess-11-587-2011.pdf https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/11/587/2011/nhess-11-587-2011.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2064587 -- http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/ -- 1684-9981 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-587-2011 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00027781 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00027736/nhess-11-587-2011.pdf https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/11/587/2011/nhess-11-587-2011.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2011 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-587-2011 2022-02-08T22:48:32Z The northeast coast of North America is frequently hit by severe ice storms. These freezing rain events can produce large ice accretions that damage structures, frequently power transmission and distribution infrastructure. For this reason, it is highly desirable to model and forecast such icing events, so that the consequent damages can be prevented or mitigated. The case study presented in this paper focuses on the March 2010 ice storm event that took place in eastern Newfoundland. We apply a combination of a numerical weather prediction model and an ice accretion algorithm to simulate a forecast of this event. The main goals of this study are to compare the simulated meteorological variables to observations, and to assess the ability of the model to accurately predict the ice accretion load for different forecast horizons. The duration and timing of the freezing rain event that occurred between the night of 4 March and the morning of 6 March was simulated well in all model runs. The total precipitation amounts in the model, however, differed by up to a factor of two from the observations. The accuracy of the model air temperature strongly depended on the forecast horizon, but it was acceptable for all simulation runs. The simulated accretion loads were also compared to the design values for power delivery structures in the region. The results indicated that the simulated values exceeded design criteria in the areas of reported damage and power outages. Article in Journal/Newspaper Newfoundland Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 11 2 587 595 |
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English |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Hosek, J. Musilek, P. Lozowski, E. Pytlak, P. Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
The northeast coast of North America is frequently hit by severe ice storms. These freezing rain events can produce large ice accretions that damage structures, frequently power transmission and distribution infrastructure. For this reason, it is highly desirable to model and forecast such icing events, so that the consequent damages can be prevented or mitigated. The case study presented in this paper focuses on the March 2010 ice storm event that took place in eastern Newfoundland. We apply a combination of a numerical weather prediction model and an ice accretion algorithm to simulate a forecast of this event. The main goals of this study are to compare the simulated meteorological variables to observations, and to assess the ability of the model to accurately predict the ice accretion load for different forecast horizons. The duration and timing of the freezing rain event that occurred between the night of 4 March and the morning of 6 March was simulated well in all model runs. The total precipitation amounts in the model, however, differed by up to a factor of two from the observations. The accuracy of the model air temperature strongly depended on the forecast horizon, but it was acceptable for all simulation runs. The simulated accretion loads were also compared to the design values for power delivery structures in the region. The results indicated that the simulated values exceeded design criteria in the areas of reported damage and power outages. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hosek, J. Musilek, P. Lozowski, E. Pytlak, P. |
author_facet |
Hosek, J. Musilek, P. Lozowski, E. Pytlak, P. |
author_sort |
Hosek, J. |
title |
Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event |
title_short |
Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event |
title_full |
Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event |
title_fullStr |
Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event |
title_sort |
forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the march 2010 newfoundland event |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-587-2011 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00027781 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00027736/nhess-11-587-2011.pdf https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/11/587/2011/nhess-11-587-2011.pdf |
genre |
Newfoundland |
genre_facet |
Newfoundland |
op_relation |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2064587 -- http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/ -- 1684-9981 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-587-2011 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00027781 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00027736/nhess-11-587-2011.pdf https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/11/587/2011/nhess-11-587-2011.pdf |
op_rights |
uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-587-2011 |
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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
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11 |
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2 |
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587 |
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595 |
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