Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers
We present estimates of sea-level change caused by the global surface mass balance of glaciers, based on the reconstruction and projection of the surface mass balance of all the individual glaciers of the world, excluding the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. The model is validated using a lea...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2012
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00023886 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00023841/tc-6-1295-2012.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/6/1295/2012/tc-6-1295-2012.pdf |
id |
ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00023886 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00023886 2023-05-15T13:41:01+02:00 Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers Marzeion, B. Jarosch, A. H. Hofer, M. 2012-11 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00023886 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00023841/tc-6-1295-2012.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/6/1295/2012/tc-6-1295-2012.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00023886 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00023841/tc-6-1295-2012.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/6/1295/2012/tc-6-1295-2012.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2012 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012 2022-02-08T22:50:26Z We present estimates of sea-level change caused by the global surface mass balance of glaciers, based on the reconstruction and projection of the surface mass balance of all the individual glaciers of the world, excluding the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. The model is validated using a leave-one-glacier-out cross-validation scheme against 3997 observed surface mass balances of 255 glaciers, and against 756 geodetically observed, temporally integrated volume and surface area changes of 341 glaciers. When forced with observed monthly precipitation and temperature data, the glaciers of the world are reconstructed to have lost mass corresponding to 114 ± 5 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) between 1902 and 2009. Using projected temperature and precipitation anomalies from 15 coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble, they are projected to lose an additional 148 ± 35 mm SLE (scenario RCP26), 166 ± 42 mm SLE (scenario RCP45), 175 ± 40 mm SLE (scenario RCP60), or 217 ± 47 mm SLE (scenario RCP85) during the 21st century. Based on the extended RCP scenarios, glaciers are projected to approach a new equilibrium towards the end of the 23rd century, after having lost either 248 ± 66 mm SLE (scenario RCP26), 313 ± 50 mm SLE (scenario RCP45), or 424 ± 46 mm SLE (scenario RCP85). Up until approximately 2100, ensemble uncertainty within each scenario is the biggest source of uncertainty for the future glacier mass loss; after that, the difference between the scenarios takes over as the biggest source of uncertainty. Ice mass loss rates are projected to peak 2040 ∼ 2050 (RCP26), 2050 ∼ 2060 (RCP45), 2070 ∼ 2090 (RCP60), or 2070 ∼ 2100 (RCP85). Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica glacier Greenland The Cryosphere Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Greenland The Cryosphere 6 6 1295 1322 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
op_collection_id |
ftnonlinearchiv |
language |
English |
topic |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
spellingShingle |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung Marzeion, B. Jarosch, A. H. Hofer, M. Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
We present estimates of sea-level change caused by the global surface mass balance of glaciers, based on the reconstruction and projection of the surface mass balance of all the individual glaciers of the world, excluding the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. The model is validated using a leave-one-glacier-out cross-validation scheme against 3997 observed surface mass balances of 255 glaciers, and against 756 geodetically observed, temporally integrated volume and surface area changes of 341 glaciers. When forced with observed monthly precipitation and temperature data, the glaciers of the world are reconstructed to have lost mass corresponding to 114 ± 5 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) between 1902 and 2009. Using projected temperature and precipitation anomalies from 15 coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble, they are projected to lose an additional 148 ± 35 mm SLE (scenario RCP26), 166 ± 42 mm SLE (scenario RCP45), 175 ± 40 mm SLE (scenario RCP60), or 217 ± 47 mm SLE (scenario RCP85) during the 21st century. Based on the extended RCP scenarios, glaciers are projected to approach a new equilibrium towards the end of the 23rd century, after having lost either 248 ± 66 mm SLE (scenario RCP26), 313 ± 50 mm SLE (scenario RCP45), or 424 ± 46 mm SLE (scenario RCP85). Up until approximately 2100, ensemble uncertainty within each scenario is the biggest source of uncertainty for the future glacier mass loss; after that, the difference between the scenarios takes over as the biggest source of uncertainty. Ice mass loss rates are projected to peak 2040 ∼ 2050 (RCP26), 2050 ∼ 2060 (RCP45), 2070 ∼ 2090 (RCP60), or 2070 ∼ 2100 (RCP85). |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Marzeion, B. Jarosch, A. H. Hofer, M. |
author_facet |
Marzeion, B. Jarosch, A. H. Hofer, M. |
author_sort |
Marzeion, B. |
title |
Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers |
title_short |
Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers |
title_full |
Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers |
title_fullStr |
Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers |
title_full_unstemmed |
Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers |
title_sort |
past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00023886 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00023841/tc-6-1295-2012.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/6/1295/2012/tc-6-1295-2012.pdf |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica glacier Greenland The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica glacier Greenland The Cryosphere |
op_relation |
The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00023886 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00023841/tc-6-1295-2012.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/6/1295/2012/tc-6-1295-2012.pdf |
op_rights |
uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1295 |
op_container_end_page |
1322 |
_version_ |
1766144615197442048 |