Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records
The longest six instrumental temperature records of monthly means reach back maximally to 1757 AD and were recorded in Europe. All six show a V-shape, with temperature drop in the 19th and rise in the 20th century. Proxy temperature time series of Antarctic ice cores show this same characteristic sh...
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00023279 2023-05-15T13:41:01+02:00 Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records Lüdecke, H.-J. Hempelmann, A. Weiss, C. O. 2013-02 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-447-2013 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00023279 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00023234/cp-9-447-2013.pdf https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/9/447/2013/cp-9-447-2013.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Climate of the Past -- http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/cp/cp/published_papers.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2217985 -- 1814-9332 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-447-2013 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00023279 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00023234/cp-9-447-2013.pdf https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/9/447/2013/cp-9-447-2013.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2013 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-447-2013 2022-02-08T22:50:44Z The longest six instrumental temperature records of monthly means reach back maximally to 1757 AD and were recorded in Europe. All six show a V-shape, with temperature drop in the 19th and rise in the 20th century. Proxy temperature time series of Antarctic ice cores show this same characteristic shape, indicating this pattern as a global phenomenon. We used the mean of the six instrumental records for analysis by discrete Fourier transform (DFT), wavelets, and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). For comparison, a stalagmite record was also analyzed by DFT. The harmonic decomposition of the abovementioned mean shows only six significant frequencies above periods over 30 yr. The Pearson correlation between the mean, smoothed by a 15-yr running average (boxcar) and the reconstruction using the six significant frequencies, yields r = 0.961. This good agreement has a > 99.9% confidence level confirmed by Monte Carlo simulations. It shows that the climate dynamics is governed at present by periodic oscillations. We find indications that observed periodicities result from intrinsic dynamics. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Antarctic Climate of the Past 9 1 447 452 |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Lüdecke, H.-J. Hempelmann, A. Weiss, C. O. Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
The longest six instrumental temperature records of monthly means reach back maximally to 1757 AD and were recorded in Europe. All six show a V-shape, with temperature drop in the 19th and rise in the 20th century. Proxy temperature time series of Antarctic ice cores show this same characteristic shape, indicating this pattern as a global phenomenon. We used the mean of the six instrumental records for analysis by discrete Fourier transform (DFT), wavelets, and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). For comparison, a stalagmite record was also analyzed by DFT. The harmonic decomposition of the abovementioned mean shows only six significant frequencies above periods over 30 yr. The Pearson correlation between the mean, smoothed by a 15-yr running average (boxcar) and the reconstruction using the six significant frequencies, yields r = 0.961. This good agreement has a > 99.9% confidence level confirmed by Monte Carlo simulations. It shows that the climate dynamics is governed at present by periodic oscillations. We find indications that observed periodicities result from intrinsic dynamics. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lüdecke, H.-J. Hempelmann, A. Weiss, C. O. |
author_facet |
Lüdecke, H.-J. Hempelmann, A. Weiss, C. O. |
author_sort |
Lüdecke, H.-J. |
title |
Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records |
title_short |
Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records |
title_full |
Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records |
title_fullStr |
Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records |
title_sort |
multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-447-2013 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00023279 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00023234/cp-9-447-2013.pdf https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/9/447/2013/cp-9-447-2013.pdf |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_relation |
Climate of the Past -- http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/cp/cp/published_papers.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2217985 -- 1814-9332 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-447-2013 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00023279 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00023234/cp-9-447-2013.pdf https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/9/447/2013/cp-9-447-2013.pdf |
op_rights |
uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-447-2013 |
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Climate of the Past |
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9 |
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1 |
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447 |
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452 |
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1766144645759238144 |